Life Which of these things will happen in the next fifty years? - Page 9

**Rain Man** · 11-25-2014, 09:45 PM

Poll forthcoming, but it'll take a few minutes. I would suggest that you use this time productively by learning the lyrics to Bohemian Rhapsody, or perhaps learning some key Chinese tourist phrases

**Rain Man** · 11-29-2014, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

I mentioned "elites" in my original post. That kind of tech wouldn't be made available to anyone in the middle class or lower, at least from the start. So you would likely only be looking at a small portion of the population that would be living "forever". Those with more education also tend to reproduce less so I wouldn't expect a huge population explosion but that could become an issue maybe a couple hundred years after inception.

If my wife and I cloned back into our 18 year-old bodies, I wonder if we would have kids the next time around. I suspect that most of the transcloners wouldn't reproduce. They'd just be extra mouths to feed forever, as kind of a fixed cost in the food equation.

**Easy 6** · 11-29-2014, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

In my opinion, it's just a transplant like any other transplant. You're simply transplanting the whole body at once, and in a manner that doesn't require a donor. We transplant hips and knees with manmade parts all the time.

In essence, it would solve the problem of aging. You could transplant yourself into your 18 year-old body with the wisdom that you have at 50 or 60.

While not intending to go against your religious beliefs, I may actually want this more than the dinosaur thing now that I think about it.

I'll take the dinosaur instead.

**Rain Man** · 11-29-2014, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6

I'll take the dinosaur instead.

It would be cool.

If I was about to die, I'd also consider transplanting my brain into a dinosaur body.

Demonpenz · 11-30-2014, 12:36 AM

I would like to see a way for Tatoo's not to catch fire around a microwave.

**Easy 6** · 11-30-2014, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

If I was about to die, I'd also consider transplanting my brain into a dinosaur body.

absolutely

**Rain Man** · 11-30-2014, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

I would like to see a way for Tatoo's not to catch fire around a microwave.

If they'd switch to a non-phosphorus based ink the problem would go away. How many young women with tramp stamps and popcorn cravings have to die before Congress addresses this situation?

**Rain Man** · 11-30-2014, 05:30 PM

#10 - Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S.

I voted yes, though I think that some niche stores will continue to exist. I think there are some things that people will want to see before they buy, such as cars. (And yes, I know about Tesla. Good luck with that, Tesla.)

As much as we talk about online purchases now, I think it's still a minor market for many goods. Books, electronics, and clothes are purchased pretty heavily online, but I bet most things aren't at more than about a 10 percent market share at most. But it'll only go up.

I would definitely not invest in commercial storefront real estate for the long term.

It makes me wonder what the city of the future will look like. I suspect that there'll still be offices and manufacturing areas, but will we not have malls? Will we not have the big commercial streets that seem to run through every city? We'll still have some consumer businesses like hotels and restaurants and ... well, maybe not gas stations. But will those business push more toward serving highways than residential areas?

**Rain Man** · 11-30-2014, 11:50 PM

#11 - Chiefs will win a Super Bowl.

Well, that's bad timing for this one to come up tonight.

I voted yes. If we do random draws each year and assume that all teams are equal, and that there remain 32 teams, then each team has a 79.6 percent chance of winning at least one Super Bowl over a 50 year period. So the odds are that this will happen as long as the Chiefs are average and all other teams ebb and flow as average.

I probably should change my vote, what with Arrowhead being built over that ancient Indian burial mound and all.

Discuss Thrower · 12-01-2014, 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

#11 - Chiefs will win a Super Bowl.

Well, that's bad timing for this one to come up tonight.

I voted yes. If we do random draws each year and assume that all teams are equal, and that there remain 32 teams, then each team has a 79.6 percent chance of winning at least one Super Bowl over a 50 year period. So the odds are that this will happen as long as the Chiefs are average and all other teams ebb and flow as average.

I probably should change my vote, what with Arrowhead being built over that ancient Indian burial mound and all.

Or... You know... Football won't exist in anything resembling it's current form due to lawsuits 50 years from now.

**Rain Man** · 12-01-2014, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Or... You know... Football won't exist in anything resembling it's current form due to lawsuits 50 years from now.

Yeah, good point. So we know that the odds are less than 80 percent. If you factor in the tendency of some franchises to win consistently and the odds of the league ceasing to exist, I bet the odds are below 50 percent. So think about that, fans. There's a pretty good shot that you won't see a Chiefs Super Bowl win in the next 50 years just due to the math. That's not even considering management performance.

ThaVirus · 12-01-2014, 12:58 AM

Brick and mortars may hit the wayward side for a lot of material things but some things just need to be bought at the store. Like groceries.

**cdcox** · 12-01-2014, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Brick and mortars may hit the wayward side for a lot of material things but some things just need to be bought at the store. Like groceries.

I see no problem with clicking on a website to order my grub, answer the door to take delivery in 30 minutes or less, and let them scan the barcode on my forearm to deduct Obama dollars from my government allocation achieved by robots doing my work for me.

**Rain Man** · 12-01-2014, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

I see no problem with clicking on a website to order my grub, answer the door to take delivery in 30 minutes or less, and let them scan the barcode on my forearm to deduct Obama dollars from my government allocation achieved by robots doing my work for me.

All in all, it's a pretty good life. Lots of time to write poetry and go for walks.

**Rain Man** · 12-01-2014, 10:55 AM

#12 - Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%)

I voted no on this one, even though I foresee continued progress.

My theory is that something has to kill us eventually. If we cure cancer as it exists now, something else will rise up the charts that's currently rare or non-existent. Alzheimer's is a good example of that, in that it wasn't common when life spans were short. Once we got past the age of gruesome industrial accidents and cholera, we ran into Alzheimer's. If we get past cancer, there'll be something else, and maybe it'll just be a different type of cancer. Who knows?

So the bottom line is that I may be hedging my bet here. I think that cure rates will go up over time, but we may end up with more exotic cancers becoming common along with other currently rare afflictions.

**Rain Man** · 12-01-2014, 09:53 PM

#13 - Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S.

I voted no.

As I mentioned earlier, the official USGS site only lists one 8.3+ earthquake in the continental U.S. in the past 300+ years, so I think it's a no go. But I always thought the New Madrid quakes were that level, and the site only lists them as 7.5 to 7.7 for the three major quakes. Maybe they've been revised downward over time.

So a 7.5 or larger? Yeah. 8.3 or larger? No.

Now, Alaska's a different story. They seem to have big quakes for breakfast up there.

View Poll Results: Which of these will happen within 50 years? Check all that apply.
A human celebrates his or her 130th birthday	37	29.13%
A mile-high skyscraper is built somewhere in the world	14	11.02%
A single war produces more than 20 million deaths	36	28.35%
A third party holds the US Presidency	36	28.35%
A U.S. president is assassinated	52	40.94%
Anti-gravity is brought into everyday use	10	7.87%
Artificial intelligence routinely conducts media interviews	23	18.11%
At least one dinosaur will be alive	10	7.87%
At least one human will have their brain transplanted into a cloned version of their own body.	17	13.39%
Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S.	53	41.73%
Chiefs win a Super Bowl	79	62.20%
Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%)	29	22.83%
Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S.	73	57.48%
Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered	12	9.45%
Faster than light travel is achieved (human transport)	8	6.30%
Flying cars	23	18.11%
Food shortages lead to permanent ban on consumption of meat in at least one country (population > 10 million)	23	18.11%
Households manufacture all necessary goods themselves, purchasing only raw materials and plans for 3D printing	14	11.02%
Human sets foot on Mars	66	51.97%
Humans can communicate directly with at least two species of animals.	14	11.02%
Implantable computer/phone/internet devices are in 80+% of Americans	33	25.98%
Large scale nuclear bomb dropped or launched in a hostile act	40	31.50%
Major epidemic kills 10% or more of the US population	18	14.17%
Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people)	23	18.11%
Major meteor strike or other interplanetary event kills 1 million or more people	5	3.94%
One-world government is established	14	11.02%
Prenatal selection of certain traits will be possible for the middle class (e.g., height, nose shape, eye color)	46	36.22%
Peaceful resolution to the Israel-Arab conflicts is achieved	1	0.79%
Permanent cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism	2	1.57%
Permanent human presence on Mars	5	3.94%
Permanent human presence on the moon	18	14.17%
Poverty is eliminated in the U.S., based on minimum standards of living that are achieved	5	3.94%
Proof of extraterrestrial life is confirmed	35	27.56%
Race is no longer an issue of conflict, contention, or policy in the U.S.	5	3.94%
Robot labor means that humans do not have to work to obtain basic needs (food, clothing, shelter)	13	10.24%
Robot labor provides household servants for the middle class (maid, butler, etc.)	26	20.47%
Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off in hostile act	60	47.24%
Space tourism becomes a feasible option for the American middle class	33	25.98%
The US Senate OR House becomes majority female	8	6.30%
The world ends as described in the holy book of your choice	6	4.72%
Time travel to the future (more than one day)	1	0.79%
Time travel to the past (more than one day)	2	1.57%
U.S. adds at least one new state from territory that is not part of a current state	32	25.20%
U.S. is no longer the world’s most powerful nation	70	55.12%
U.S. no longer needs petroleum products as energy source	25	19.69%
U.S. splits into two or more countries	10	7.87%
None of these things will occur within 50 years.	1	0.79%
Poll fail. We will invent time travel, so the future will cease to exist.	5	3.94%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 127. You may not vote on this poll

11-25-2014, 09:45 PM
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-682449 VARSITY	Which of these things will happen in the next fifty years? Poll forthcoming, but it'll take a few minutes. I would suggest that you use this time productively by learning the lyrics to Bohemian Rhapsody, or perhaps learning some key Chinese tourist phrases
Posts: 145,512

11-30-2014, 12:36 AM	#124
Demonpenz Woman should only make babies Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Apartment "G UNIT!" Casino cash: $-403864	I would like to see a way for Tatoo's not to catch fire around a microwave. __________________
Posts: 54,957

11-30-2014, 05:30 PM	#127
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-682449 VARSITY	#10 - Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S. I voted yes, though I think that some niche stores will continue to exist. I think there are some things that people will want to see before they buy, such as cars. (And yes, I know about Tesla. Good luck with that, Tesla.) As much as we talk about online purchases now, I think it's still a minor market for many goods. Books, electronics, and clothes are purchased pretty heavily online, but I bet most things aren't at more than about a 10 percent market share at most. But it'll only go up. I would definitely not invest in commercial storefront real estate for the long term. It makes me wonder what the city of the future will look like. I suspect that there'll still be offices and manufacturing areas, but will we not have malls? Will we not have the big commercial streets that seem to run through every city? We'll still have some consumer businesses like hotels and restaurants and ... well, maybe not gas stations. But will those business push more toward serving highways than residential areas? __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,512

11-30-2014, 11:50 PM	#128
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-682449 VARSITY	#11 - Chiefs will win a Super Bowl. Well, that's bad timing for this one to come up tonight. I voted yes. If we do random draws each year and assume that all teams are equal, and that there remain 32 teams, then each team has a 79.6 percent chance of winning at least one Super Bowl over a 50 year period. So the odds are that this will happen as long as the Chiefs are average and all other teams ebb and flow as average. I probably should change my vote, what with Arrowhead being built over that ancient Indian burial mound and all. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,512

12-01-2014, 12:58 AM	#131
ThaVirus 5 o’clock free crack giveaway Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $-1827631	Brick and mortars may hit the wayward side for a lot of material things but some things just need to be bought at the store. Like groceries.
Posts: 47,040

12-01-2014, 10:55 AM	#134
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-682449 VARSITY	#12 - Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%) I voted no on this one, even though I foresee continued progress. My theory is that something has to kill us eventually. If we cure cancer as it exists now, something else will rise up the charts that's currently rare or non-existent. Alzheimer's is a good example of that, in that it wasn't common when life spans were short. Once we got past the age of gruesome industrial accidents and cholera, we ran into Alzheimer's. If we get past cancer, there'll be something else, and maybe it'll just be a different type of cancer. Who knows? So the bottom line is that I may be hedging my bet here. I think that cure rates will go up over time, but we may end up with more exotic cancers becoming common along with other currently rare afflictions. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,512

12-01-2014, 09:53 PM	#135
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-682449 VARSITY	#13 - Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S. I voted no. As I mentioned earlier, the official USGS site only lists one 8.3+ earthquake in the continental U.S. in the past 300+ years, so I think it's a no go. But I always thought the New Madrid quakes were that level, and the site only lists them as 7.5 to 7.7 for the three major quakes. Maybe they've been revised downward over time. So a 7.5 or larger? Yeah. 8.3 or larger? No. Now, Alaska's a different story. They seem to have big quakes for breakfast up there. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,512