Mock 1/23/19

[kccrow]

Just having some fun for shits and giggles...

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant, and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator. (This is a carryover from last mock, so far 1/2 is true).

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m. Both extensions done after June 1 (noted later).

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Eric Berry: Eric Berry, despite his leadership, has been available far less than a player making his salary should be. It's time to move on and get guys in here that are available. The move is a June 1st designation which frees up an additional $9.55m in 2019 after June 1 and $5.50m in 2020 with dead money of $6.95m in 2019 and $8.00m in 2020. This cap space used to sign extensions noted above.

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DL Rodney Gunter (ARZ): Gunter has started to look like a good football player in 2018 and seems to have the work ethic to continue ascending. The Cardinals are in a huge state of flux with coaching changes coming and it will be interesting to see who they try to retain. While Gunter should be on that list, I've also seen alot of players hit the market during such situations that I didn't expect to. Gunter is a big guy at 6'5" 305 and he's got good quickness off the snap and speed to close. I have him valued similarly to Abry Jones(4-yrs/15.5m) and Justin Ellis (3-yrs/13.5m)
[I]4 years, $17.75m with $4.00m signing bonus and $6.75m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 4.00 2020 4.25 2021 4.75 2022 4.75

ED Preston Smith (WAS): Smith is a very solid run defender and gets a ton of pressure on the QB despite less than eye-popping sack totals. He's the type of edge player this team needs on the outside to help stop the bleeding in the run game. He shouldn't command the type of contract that Dee Ford will with his gaudy sack total that will make some GM's go gaga. I think a Whitney Mercilus-type deal taken to current cap dollars is his value.
4 years, $35.00m with $7.00m signing bonus and $13.40m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 8.25 2021 8.75 2022: 9.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on this board seems to want to admit and is becoming one of the better all-around corners in the NFL, plus he's still only 25 with his prime ahead of him.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

RB T.J. Yeldon (JAX): Yeldon is a nice complimentary back that really excels in the passing game and could be a sure-fire weapon under Andy Reid, especially given his penchant for using backs on screens and down the field. Yeldon may look for a starting gig but if there are no takers, he's going to have plenty of options to be part of a committee once again and there may not be a better fit for him.
2 years/$4.5m with $1.4m signing bonus and $1.9m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.75 2020: 2.75

S Andrew Adams (TB): I've been high on Adams since he left UConn and every time he gets a shot to play he does well. He doesn't have many starts with only 4 in each of the past two seasons, but he'd be a nice cheap safety to bring in and compete for a starting gig and at worst should be solid depth.
2 years/$4.0m with $1.0m signing bonus and $1.5m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.80 2020: 2.20

ED Shane Ray (DEN): Ray was on track to be a good contributor and at worst a hell of a situational pass rusher until a wrist injury and subsequent surgeries derailed his career. If he is indeed past that injury and can start putting muscle back on this offseason, then he could be a low risk, low salary, prospect as a situational rusher in KC.
2 years/$4.0m with $700k signing bonus, $1.1m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.10

Notes:
I fully expect the Vikings to cut SS Andrew Sendejo so that they can put a 1st round tender on SS Anthony Harris and then kick the can down the road a bit on Everson Griffen's contract by converting some salary to bonus money so they can re-sign some other players. That all said, if they put an original round tender on Harris, I'd put an offer in on him. He was incredible this year and is young enough to make it worthwhile.

Re-signings

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: OTC released details of the Williams extension, noting that it was 2 years, 5.1m with cap hits of 1.73 and 2.83 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Initial reports were that the contract was for an extra 3 million, so I'm wondering if there are missing details on unlikely to be earned performance escalators of 1.5m in each year. Either way, unlikely to be earned don't count against the cap and this saves on my estimate by about 1.3m per.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Trades

The Chiefs franchise tag Dee Ford at the onset of free agency, then trade him to the Green Bay Packers along with their 2nd round pick from the Rams for a 2019 1st #30 (from Saints) and 2019 4th ~118 (from Redskins)

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 4.6m pre-June 1 / 6.1m post-June 1

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 239)
1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (6'1" 190) [f/GB - Ford]
2. OL Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (6'5" 304)
3. SS Juan Thornhill, Virginia (6'1" 205)
4. WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia(6'1" 215) [f/GB - Ford]
5. RB Elijah Holyfield, Georgia (5'10" 215)
6. FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195)
6. TE Kahale Warring, San Diego State (6'5" 250) [Comp - Logan]
7. WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (was RB) (5'9" 180) [f/SF - Streater]


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Elijah Holyfield, Darrel Williams
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Kahale Warring
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Gary Jennings Jr., Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Deiter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie (OG)
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Michael Deiter (OT), Cameron Erving (OC), Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Rodney Gunter, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
ED: Justin Houston, Preston Smith, Breeland Speaks, Shane Ray, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
LB: Anthony Hitchens, Mack Wilson, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Trayvon Mullen, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
DS: Juan Thornhill, Andrew Adams, Jordan Lucas, Armani Watts, Kareem Orr, Eric Murray
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I don't think Berry and his people would have any issue convincing a likely arbitrator (I'm sure that's what would end up happening) that the injury was exacerbated and/or compounded by years of playing football. Afterall, it wasn't an issue when he was at TN or even for the first several years of his career. Then suddenly it pops up.

I know you run into a causation/correlation problem here, but I'd be stunned if an arbitrator ruled that this was unrelated to his football career. There's going to be enough smoke there that they'll see fire.

I'm not saying Eric can't play the part of the victim and get a favorable ruling, but they'd have to really want it to say "football" did this, it can't just be life.

https://www.foothealthfacts.org/cond...%99s-deformity

Causes
Haglund’s deformity is often called “pump bump” because the rigid backs of pump-style shoes can create pressure that aggravates the enlargement when walking. In fact, any shoes with a rigid back, such as ice skates, men’s dress shoes or women’s pumps, can cause this irritation.

To some extent, heredity plays a role in Haglund’s deformity. Inherited foot structures that can make one prone to developing this condition include:

A high-arched foot
A tight Achilles tendon
A tendency to walk on the outside of the heel.

But I sure wouldn't put any of this beyond what Berry would do to the team...

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

[Sigh]

You. Can't. Cut. Him. If. He. Can't. Pass. A. Physical.

The guarantee is just a guarantee on day 3. Not for injury or performance or any other qualifier - just a guarantee. But if a player cannot pass a standard player physical as a result of a football related surgery, you can't cut him. He wont pass by day 3 so your 'cut him on day 1' nonsense is prohibited.

There's a ZERO percent chance that his injury will be declared non-football related. Zero. If the chiefs thought that were a possibility they'd have put him on the NFI list and avoided his cap hit for this season.

What would you like to place on this? Hes getting the surgery, it will prohibit the Chiefs from cutting him and we're stuck with his salary in 2019.

You're just flat ****ing wrong here. Any one of your drafts that involves cutting Berry is a waste if your time and anyone who reads it.

If it doesn't have an injury qualifier then you're blowing smoke out your own ass. Even if it DOES have an injury qualifier, it HAS to be FOOTBALL RELATED. If you want proof of what I'm talking about, here's an SEC archive of a player contract clause:

12. TERMINATION. The rights of termination set forth in this contract will be in addition to any other rights of termination allowed either party by law. Termination will be effective upon the giving of written notice, except that Player’s death, other than as a result of injury incurred in the performance of his services under this contract, will automatically terminate this contract. If this contract is terminated by Club and either Player or Club so requests, Player will promptly undergo a complete physical examination by the Club physician.

[BryanBusby]

All he has to do is tell an arbitrator that it was a result from wearing cleats and the Chiefs are sunk. He's not going anywhere for at least one more year.

[O.city]

I don’t really want to rely on Reiter at center

I’d like to keep Morse but that isn’t likely I guess so I’d draft one pretty high

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don’t really want to rely on Reiter at center

I’d like to keep Morse but that isn’t likely I guess so I’d draft one pretty high

It’s plausible that if Khalil McKenzie shows good development that he slides in at either LG or C, letting Erving play the other.

I think Khalil is going to be pretty good.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

If it doesn't have an injury qualifier then you're blowing smoke out your own ass. Even if it DOES have an injury qualifier, it HAS to be FOOTBALL RELATED. If you want proof of what I'm talking about, here's an SEC archive of a player contract clause:

Its GOING to be football related. **** me, do you really not understand how easy this will be?

"I had to tape my ankles to deal with instability after my injuries..."

That will literally be all it takes. You're welcome to waste as much time as you want jerking yourself off to this idea but I'll bet you $100 the Chiefs either A) dont even try because they know they dont have a chance or B) get SMOKED in an arb hearing.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

All he has to do is tell an arbitrator that it was a result from wearing cleats and the Chiefs are sunk. He's not going anywhere for at least one more year.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Its GOING to be football related. **** me, do you really not understand how easy this will be?

"I had to tape my ankles to deal with instability after my injuries..."

That will literally be all it takes. You're welcome to waste as much time as you want jerking yourself off to this idea but I'll bet you $100 the Chiefs either A) dont even try because they know they dont have a chance or B) get SMOKED in an arb hearing.

Two people that don't understand what "football related" actually means. This deformity was not caused by playing football. It has, literally, nothing to do with playing football. The fact that playing football can make it worse has no bearing whatsoever on what the issue actually is. It's the same thing if a player has a heart condition that wasn't found, then is found after he's been playing ball, and can no longer play. The heart condition wasn't caused by football, it was natural. Playing football could make it worse. **** me if I can't pound that through your ****ing skulls.

Either way, it's whatever, the Chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him anyway. He'll get the surgery and still be an overpaid, average safety that'll likely find yet another way to not be on the field.

[Chris Meck]

I quite like your draft but would like to see something like this in the first 3 picks:

CB Oruwariye, DE/Edge Jaylon Edwards, S Adderly.

I think all 3 would be day 1 starters and impact players.

Some combination of #1's and #2's should be able to get that done.

[warrior]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I quite like your draft but would like to see something like this in the first 3 picks:

CB Oruwariye, DE/Edge Jaylon Edwards, S Adderly.

I think all 3 would be day 1 starters and impact players.

Some combination of #1's and #2's should be able to get that done.

Really like all three of those guy's if not Oruwariye then Mullen

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I quite like your draft but would like to see something like this in the first 3 picks:

CB Oruwariye, DE/Edge Jaylon Edwards, S Adderly.

I think all 3 would be day 1 starters and impact players.

Some combination of #1's and #2's should be able to get that done.

Did you mean Jaylon Ferguson? If so, I think if you go back a bit then KCCrow was drafting him in the 2nd but he got some hype to go late 1st early 2nd so he hasn't been featured in these drafts much recently.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Two people that don't understand what "football related" actually means. This deformity was not caused by playing football. It has, literally, nothing to do with playing football. The fact that playing football can make it worse has no bearing whatsoever on what the issue actually is. It's the same thing if a player has a heart condition that wasn't found, then is found after he's been playing ball, and can no longer play. The heart condition wasn't caused by football, it was natural. Playing football could make it worse. **** me if I can't pound that through your ****ing skulls.

Either way, it's whatever, the Chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him anyway. He'll get the surgery and still be an overpaid, average safety that'll likely find yet another way to not be on the field.

you're trying to armchair diagnose something where you have no idea what the root cause actually is but think you've got the pulse from webmd

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

you're trying to armchair diagnose something where you have no idea what the root cause actually is but think you've got the pulse from webmd

I'd explain how we know all of this and can diagnose from our armchairs, but it's complicated.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

I'd explain how we know all of this and can diagnose from our armchairs, but it's complicated.

It would be first logical thought you've had.

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

It would be first logical thought you've had.

You..

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Two people that don't understand what "football related" actually means. This deformity was not caused by playing football. It has, literally, nothing to do with playing football. The fact that playing football can make it worse has no bearing whatsoever on what the issue actually is. It's the same thing if a player has a heart condition that wasn't found, then is found after he's been playing ball, and can no longer play. The heart condition wasn't caused by football, it was natural. Playing football could make it worse. **** me if I can't pound that through your ****ing skulls.

Either way, it's whatever, the Chiefs are dumb enough they won't cut him anyway. He'll get the surgery and still be an overpaid, average safety that'll likely find yet another way to not be on the field.

I ask again - what would you like to bet on this?

You can say it's not football related all you want but it doesn't have to be 100% BECAUSE of football. It is akin to the eggshell plaintiff rules - sure, Berry may have been genetically predisposed to this condition but if he'd have not had this thing surface had he chosen to be a schoolteacher, it's going to be called football related. It just will. You keep saying 'CAUSED' by football and that ain't how it works. Exacerbated or tangentially related to playing football is going to be enough. Your position that making it worse is irrelevant is just laughably ridiculous.

That's why these CTE cases still get such traction despite no true causal link ever being established. Oh sure, there's a ton of circumstantial linkage and we know that some people are simply going to be more predisposed to cognitive damage than others. An entire field of literature has come to the conclusion that there is SOMETHING already present in these severe cases that might not have surfaced but/for football but the bottom line is that the seed was there and all football did was make it debilitating. And in the end, all of these cases are coming down to "is there enough smoke to say that but/for football, this wouldn't have happened this way or at least not been this severe...."?

If you honestly think that you'll be able to convince an arbitrator that "Eric Berry, Schoolteacher" would've had this condition pop up to a degree that required surgical intervention....well you're being unreasonably myopic. Berry and his people will have an army of experts at ANY hearing saying "Yes, of course wearing football cleats and heavily taping ankles while making hard cuts can and will contribute to exacerbating this physical condition to the point that surgery is now necessary...." The Chiefs may or may not bring in experts of their own to argue to the contrary but if I'm a betting man, I'm betting that they just don't bother trying.

Because they will get their asses kicked badly on this one. You are applying a standard to 'football related' that is ENTIRELY too strict and in the process completely wasting your time.

Eric Berry won't be cut and the reason he won't be is that the Chiefs know that they're not going to get any traction at all on the argument that this injury isn't football related. Spend as much time talking yourself into the opposite view as you'd like, but it's not going to happen. Archive to your hearts content and we'll circle back on the 3rd day of the league year...