Let’s talk about the Miami Dolphins

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Headed down to a familiar location for the Florida heat and a highly formidable opponent.

The Dolphins have a great defense, a mediocre at best offense. Not all that different from Denver really, but coached better.

A win would clinch the AFCW for the 5th straight season, so there is some added importance. Of course we are on Pittsburgh’s heels, too.

I think we all aren’t totally sure what to make of the team at this point. They’ve been inconsistent in their focus, their execution. There seem to be problem areas that could be upgraded by simply plugging a backup in (hi, Wis), but it remains to be seen if any changes are going to be made.

It’s a weird league where outcomes are all over the place, winning is really damn hard, but they’re still 11-1 and largely look to be on cruise control half the time. I do think there’s something to be said for the GS Warriors comparison where sometimes they just don’t flip the switch until they have to. I guess we will see what happens as the games get bigger and bigger for this team.

This one won’t be easy, but if the offense comes out locked in from the go, it shouldn’t be a scare. I also think it’s another opportunity for the defense to perform well again, but I still feel like we need more from our pass rush along the DL moving forward.

Game is at noon on CBS...

[VanDolPhan]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

How did the Phins let Denver beat them?

Young OL crapped the bed pretty badly that day. By far the worse day the OL's had all season. This game we basically are starting a rookie QB, 3 rookie OL, 2 journeyman OL (center and wherever they play Jessie Davis) and only 1 viable WR in Parker. Not to mention a mish mash of after thought running backs. Rest of the WR's are all gadget, rooks/waiver wire pick ups.

[VanDolPhan]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Unless you have a S that covers like a corner and tackles like a LB, Kelce requires two men to actually slow him down and force the ball elsewhere. The often-broken Derwin James is kind of the template you need. It doesn’t sound like Rowe has that.

Shall see. Ever since Boyer moved him into the role no TE has gone over 50 yards on him that I recall. Even Kittle was limited to 44 yards on 4 catches.

I don't expect Rowe to keep that up against Kelce, but I do hope to keep him down to around 4-6 catches and under 70 yards hopefully. Or hopefully the team will alternate doubling up Kelce and Hill. I don't like the idea of running man against either too often.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

Young OL crapped the bed pretty badly that day. By far the worse day the OL's had all season. This game we basically are starting a rookie QB, 3 rookie OL, 2 journeyman OL (center and wherever they play Jessie Davis) and only 1 viable WR in Parker. Not to mention a mish mash of after thought running backs. Rest of the WR's are all gadget, rooks/waiver wire pick ups.

Well, KC has a maddening habit of shooting themselves in the foot and sometimes just appearing to lack focus.

Take last week for example; KC literally scored two more TD's than are on the final scoreboard on a catch that wasn't reviewed and a really questionable holding call. Also Mahomes just flat missed a wide open Hill for what would've been another. So they play "down" to opponents a lot, just playing well enough to win. That bit them in the ass in the first Raiders game.

You're going to need to be able to run the ball, and hit some big plays off of play-action. You're going to need to be able to get to Mahomes with 4 and play really disciplined zone with 7. You can't play man. You just can't.

And you're going to need The Chiefs to come out kind of ho-hum and just screw some stuff up, which they do fairly often.

Get a turn-over or two and play relatively mistake free and hang around to the end and maybe you catch 'em napping.

[Megatron96]

MIA has a pretty good ball-hawking defense. Not so great against the run apparently, but vs. the typical passing game they've been as good as any one.

Problem is that they've never seen the Chiefs offense. And teams that meet Mahomes and the Chiefs for the first time tend to fare poorly. Especially in the first half. And if the Chiefs can get their running game going early and force the Dolphins to defend it, it could be a boatrace pretty quickly.

But the Chiefs OL issues have made the Chiefs running game inconsistent, so KC might struggle a bit inside the RZ, again. And the refs might do their thing as well, which is why I originally predicted a 28-17 victory for the Chiefs.

[VanDolPhan]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Well, KC has a maddening habit of shooting themselves in the foot and sometimes just appearing to lack focus.

Shooting themselves in the foot is definitely Miami's offense motto. I swear to god if Gailey calls one more fade from the 3 yard line or 190lb Gaskin up the gut in an I. I swear that was 90% of his calls in the red zone last week. We have 8 Td's from our 3 TE's but weirdly have moved away from throwing to the other 2 in the red zone. It's maddening.

We haven't had a 100 yard rusher in forever. I don't expect us to find a running game this week either. Gaskin is alright as an all purpose yards guy (141 combined last week) he scares NO ONE.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I don't disagree exactly; but the problem with just trying to outshoot the Chiefs is that you've got to have the horses to do so.

I mean, The Dolphins for example do not have the skill position talent to try to air it out and win a shootout. They just don't, and if they try, they're going to lose by 50.

I know the tendency is to look at the '18 Patriots and Rams games, but those were also stellar offenses.

And our defense was laughably bad at that.

I don't see any offense at the moment that can try to win a shootout with KC. Maybe GB on a good day?

No, your best bet right now is to run the ball, play keep away, and be able to rush 4 and get to Patrick. And offensively you need to pretty much be perfect.

No disagreement on any of this at all.....I just don't get why people just chime in like it's some type of proven formula....it isn't. Does it represent the "best chance" for a Dolphins team to win....probably so, but good luck to you.

P.S. I'll also note that the Dolphins D has given up exactly 36 total yards less on the season than the Chiefs D has.....and that includes the two NYJ Games where they gave up 260 and 263, and last week's Burrowless Bungles game of 196 yds. Additionally, in those 3 games, they gave up 0, 3, and 7 points....(Chiefs gave up 221 yds to Jets, and 9 pts in one game to NYJ).

All others combined: Dolphins are giving up 393 yds and 22.4 pts per game (points not terrible by any stretch, but if they give up 393 yds to the Chiefs, they will lose big)....just pointing out that the D is actually pretty average overall....

What the Dolphins have done is get at least one turnover in every game this year, including 2 turnovers each in their last 3 games....so, if the Chiefs can keep protecting the ball, they will be just fine....

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

Shall see. Ever since Boyer moved him into the role no TE has gone over 50 yards on him that I recall. Even Kittle was limited to 44 yards on 4 catches.

I don't expect Rowe to keep that up against Kelce, but I do hope to keep him down to around 4-6 catches and under 70 yards hopefully. Or hopefully the team will alternate doubling up Kelce and Hill. I don't like the idea of running man against either too often.

Yeah, it will be a matchup to watch.

Noah Fant had 4/55 yards against Miami a few weeks ago. That's the best guy they've faced since Kittle, and honestly, neither is comparable to what Kelce is as a receiver. Kittle is a freak and great YAC guy and Fant is super fast, but neither runs routes with the grace and deception Kelce does (he runs routes like a WR, just incredible feet).

Honestly, Miami's best bet is to rush 4 and hope Ogbah and company can get there, or hope the Chiefs have a penalty which causes a drive to stall.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by VanDolPhan

Shooting themselves in the foot is definitely Miami's offense motto. I swear to god if Gailey calls one more fade from the 3 yard line or 190lb Gaskin up the gut in an I. I swear that was 90% of his calls in the red zone last week. We have 8 Td's from our 3 TE's but weirdly have moved away from throwing to the other 2 in the red zone. It's maddening.

We haven't had a 100 yard rusher in forever. I don't expect us to find a running game this week either. Gaskin is alright as an all purpose yards guy (141 combined last week) he scares NO ONE.

well, that can work as our LB'ers are pretty shitty. Screens and passes to backs and TE's in the flats are our achilles heel.

I don't think that's enough in and of itself to beat KC anymore, but it's certainly a plan the Dolphins should be leaning on.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Collinsworth only explained it 4 or 5 times last night. I guess it's just that hard to understand.

Sorry I'm not as smart as you.

However, I did watch the game in a bar WITHOUT SOUND nor Close Caption so I missed Cris Collinsworth explain it 4-5 times and that for a rube like me it just "too" not "to" hard to understand.

Maybe I need to take a lip reading course.

[Megatron96]

So just spent a few minutes lurking over in a coupe MIA boards, and some interesting opinions:

MIA doesn't have much of a pass-rush with just their DL.

Their secondary typically plays more man press.

Their defense is not good at all against the run.

They get pressure through exotic blitz packages.

This sounds very familiar.

[Halfcan]

I don't see any scenario where the Fins win this game. None.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

There's no way they just put a guy on Kelce and hope for the best.

He is only the guy with the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL just 6 yards behind DK Metcalf

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

I don't see any scenario where the Fins win this game. None.

Weird bounces and refs.

When you think about it, with the exception of the week 5 loss to LV, the only way teams have stayed in games to even have a shot at beating the Chiefs this season is really down to bad bounces and refs throwing flags for some pretty ticky-tack fouls.

I did a quick mental check, and this season we've had at least 6 TDs taken off the board for phantom penalties or just strange circumstances. Then there was the fumble against BAL inside the 23 yard line that should've resulted in some kind of points, a couple puzzling drops by RBs in or at the EZ, etc.

The offense has been executing at least well enough to put a minimum opf 30 points on the board. If not for some bad passes, drops, odd occurrences, and poor officiating we'd have won every game by double digits.

But these things have been happening with some regularity this season, so I can't discount it at this point.

Plus, I don't think the team is going to come into this game with a ton of urgency/intensity. It's getting late in the season and it's been a grind, in spite of the relative weakness of the schedule. If they sleep-walk long enough, and a enough dumb things happen, MIA is just good enough and just hungry enough to steal a W.

Which is why I think it'll be relatively low-scoring and within a score or so. We'll see a better effort against NOR, and maybe even ATL if the 1 seed is still in play. This weekend, I think the Chiefs are going to try to get out to an early lead and cruise to a win, and just try to keep everyone healthy. Maybe work on the run game if their D is so bad against the run.

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Why would anybody expect it to be "easy"?

It's the NFL and it's built for parity above all else.

Expecting games to be easy is just a bad expectation.

Same with saying shit like “they’re playing down to the level of their competition”.

Do people really think champion players on a first place team don’t bust their ass every week. Hell, I don’t believe crappy teams don’t play all out. It’s as if most fans forget that in general, the talent level disparity between NFL players is razor thin. Coaching, film study, game planning are all conducted by high level experts on every team. The victory margin in NFL games is usually low for a reason.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Same with saying shit like “they’re playing down to the level of their competition”.

Do people really think champion players on a first place team don’t bust their ass every week. Hell, I don’t believe crappy teams don’t play all out. It’s as if most fans forget that in general, the talent level disparity between NFL players is razor thin. Coaching, film study, game planning are all conducted by high level experts on every team. The victory margin in NFL games is usually low for a reason.

I think it can largely be a fan narrative, but I think 'playing down to their competition' doesn't have to mean anything all that extreme for the reason you mentioned.

Maybe a player or 8 aren't laser focused on game planning for the week, maybe those players or others have a few too many drinks the night before, or just aren't focusing at being 100% in the zone for certain plays or out of the gate.

It's not necessarily the difference of playing at 50% effort vs. 100%.... it could be 98% vs 100%, and that's all that's needed to not convert a couple 3rd downs or whatever.

I think the Raiders are a great example... laser focused on beating the Chiefs, and then WTF has happened the past couple weeks? There's clearly a lack of focus due to being emotionally drained or "playing down to their competition" or whatever people want to call it. That margin of focus might not be astronomical, but their ceiling is clearly far higher than the Falcons final score indicates or going down to the last second with NYJ.

And for the Chiefs, maybe they aren't digging deep into the offensive playbook for a certain team, as to not show off things they could save for the playoffs... and I'm sure they know they wouldn't need 40+ points against the Broncos, and whether they want it to or not, it could impact their mentality heading into the game.

I think you sort of nailed the issue, actually.... players and coaches have to be at the highest level of focus, and not every player is going to be at that level for all 16+ games, just like any other job. For every Mahomes, who eats/sleeps/breathes football, you'll have players who relatively take a week off or at least plays off.