The Athletic's Nate Taylor Mock Draft

[KChiefs1]

https://theathletic.com/2542948/2021...holes-to-fill/

Chiefs Mock Draft 4.0: Even after trade for Orlando Brown Jr., there are still holes to fill
by
Nate Taylor

I focused on those positions here in my fourth mock draft. As I’ve done in my previous two mocks, teams are enabled to consummate trades, which are easier to predict so close to the start of the draft since there’s clarity to the roster needs for each team.

Below are my selections, based on the positions the Chiefs should target, the talent setup of the draft class and how prospects fit within the team’s schemes. We also reference and utilize the thorough evaluations of prospects from Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft analyst who published his annual draft guide — known as “The Beast” — earlier this month.


Round 2 (pick 58): LB Jamin Davis, Kentucky

Brugler’s breakdown: Listed at 6-foot-3 and 234 pounds, Davis is the fourth-ranked linebacker. Brugler projects Davis to be a potential starter and ranks him as the 36th overall prospect in this draft class.

“Davis is a rangy player with a GPS for the football, stretching out his stride to close versus the run or drop into coverage,” Brugler writes. “He needs to develop more of a counterattack versus blockers and clean up his tackling technique, but he casts a wide net with his length to make open-field stops.

“Davis isn’t a banger and needs to improve his take-on skills, but he trusts his eyes and plays fast to quickly respond to play development.”

Well, this is a semi-bold move for the Chiefs. But the Chiefs need more depth at the linebacker position, especially after former starter Damien Wilson signed with the Jaguars in free agency. Entering the draft, the Chiefs have just three linebackers who can be trusted with regular playing time: Anthony Hitchens, Willie Gay and Ben Niemann.

Davis, as a junior, was a very productive player last season, as he showed legitimate sideline-to-sideline range. He led the Wildcats with 102 tackles while also recording five pass breakups and three interceptions, one that he returned 85 yards for a touchdown against Tennessee. Davis earned an 87.5 run-defense grade from Pro Football Focus. At Kentucky’s pro day, Davis displayed his impressive speed, running the 40-yard dash in 4.47 seconds. He tied the record for the highest vertical jump ever recorded (42 inches) by an off-ball linebacker, according to Pro Football Focus.

Many Chiefs fans likely would want a defensive end with this position, but I saw Davis as the best prospect available who has a chance to contribute this upcoming season. The hope is that Davis already has a good relationship with Matt House, the linebacker assistant who was Kentucky’s defensive coordinator and inside linebackers assistant from 2016-18 before joining the Chiefs in 2019.


Round 3 (pick 67): DE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt

While on the clock with the 58th pick, the Chiefs instead executed a trade with the Houston Texans. The Texans originally wanted the 58th pick, but I felt it was necessary for the Chiefs to select a player with the pick they just received from the Ravens. As a counter, the Chiefs agreed to trade picks 63, 181 and 207 to the Texans in exchange for picks 67 and 147. The Texans used the 63rd pick to select Syracuse cornerback Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Part of this trade was used as a gamble to see if Payton Turner, the talented defensive end from Houston, would still be available with the 67th pick. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Turner — who I took with the 55th pick in my third mock draft — was selected by the Jaguars with the 65th pick to start the third round.

With that information, the decision was easy for the Chiefs to select Odeyingbo two picks later.

Brugler’s breakdown: Known for his outstanding length, Odeyingbo is ranked as the 11th-best defensive end. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 285 pounds, Odeyingbo is a true developmental defensive end who has the potential to be a productive starter later in his NFL career.

“He has pass rush talent and operates with a competitive motor, but he is more of an inside track player than arc rusher, lacking natural move-to-move transitions,” Brugler writes. “Odeyingbo’s recent Achilles injury complicates matters, but he has the length and explosive traits of a future NFL starter. He projects best as a scheme-versatile defensive end who can reduce inside on passing downs.”

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has utilized defensive linemen in such a manner in the past and Odeyingbo would be a nice addition to the Chiefs’ group, which includes Clark, star defensive tackle Chris Jones, defensive tackle Jarran Reed and defensive end Taco Charlton.

In his four years at Vanderbilt, Odeyingbo recorded 31 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, one interception, two fumble recoveries and one forced fumble. The Chiefs could see Odeyingbo as an ascending player, one who should continue to show growth throughout his rookie contract. Odeyingbo will need to generate better production than Breeland Speaks and Tanoh Kpassagnon, two former second-round picks who didn’t become consistent contributors.

With the 94th pick, the Ravens selected Tulane defensive end Cameron Sample.

Other notable prospects potentially available: tackle Liam Eichenberg (Notre Dame), cornerback Aaron Robinson (Central Florida), receiver Josh Palmer (Tennessee) and tackle Stone Forsythe (Florida).



Round 3 (pick 95): TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame

Another trade! This time, the trade partner was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team who defeated the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. The Buccaneers were eager to move down, so the Chiefs sent them picks 144 and 147.

By making such a move, the Chiefs will select just four prospects in the draft. One reason for this decision is based on Veach’s assessment of how there could be valuable selections to be made in the second and third round.

“There’s a mid-round pocket that we’re excited about,” Veach said. “I think there will be some depth in the offensive line throughout the first three, four rounds — and same thing with the secondary. We’ll just have to be patient and disciplined and just look for value.

“I think that the mid-two to early-three area is going to be a hot zone.”

Another reason for this move is to introduce a new skill-position player to the Chiefs’ offense. And if you’ve read any of my previous mocks, the third round is where I strongly suggest that the Chiefs select a pass-catching tight end to learn from and play alongside star tight end Travis Kelce. Enter Tremble.


Brugler’s breakdown: Listed at 6-foot-3 and 241 pounds, Tremble is the fourth-ranked tight end and the 75th overall prospect. Brugler projects Tremble to be a potential starter because of his skills and versatility, both as a blocker and as a pass-catcher.

“His tape shows the competitiveness to be a bulldozer as a run blocker and tie up defenders in pass pro,” Brugler writes of Tremble. “He needs to mature as a route runner and finisher, but he flashes the athleticism and body control to work past underneath defenders and become available as a target.

“Tremble is unrefined in areas, as he was underutilized as a passing target in college. But he is an ascending talent and displays the point-of-attack skills to be an asset as a blocker. He will be a better pro than college player as he continues to develop.”

A starter the past two seasons at Notre Dame, Tremble recorded 35 receptions for 401 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch.

Veach mentioned in March that he wanted to get the team a tight end who can develop under Kelce and be a legitimate passing option for Mahomes, as Reid is hoping to play more snaps this season with two tight ends on the field. Kelce, 31, could also play fewer snaps next season to better maintain his body. The last time the Chiefs selected a tight end in the third round or higher was in 2013, when the team acquired Kelce with the 63rd pick.

Other notable prospects potentially available: tackle Brady Christensen (BYU), receiver Jaelon Darden (North Texas), running back Khalil Herbert (Virginia Tech) and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste (Minnesota).



Round 4 (pick 135): WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas

This move is in honor of cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who the Chiefs selected with the 138th pick of last year’s draft. Sneed was the Chiefs’ best rookie last season, recording three interceptions, seven pass breakups and two sacks in just nine games.

The Chiefs obtained the 135th pick from the Packers in exchange for the 175th pick and a 2022 seventh-round pick. With this move, the Chiefs still have at least six picks for next year’s draft, including two picks in the sixth round.

Look, I just love watching Darden play. The Chiefs need a slot receiver and Darden — playing alongside Kelce and speedsters in receivers Tyreek Hill and Hardman — should have plenty of space to get open for Mahomes.

Darden has the speed the Chiefs often covet, as he ran the 40 in an impressive 4.44 seconds at his pro day. He was also productive his last two seasons at North Texas, leading the team in receiving yards (1,926 total) and touchdowns (31) both years. Darden is expected to be North Texas’ first receiver to be selected in the draft, as he is the school’s all-time leader in receptions (230), receiving yards (2,782) and receiving touchdowns (38).

Pro Football Focus described Darden, listed at 5-foot-8 and 174 pounds, as a jitterbug in space. A couple more reasons the Chiefs should target Darden is because he has experience as a punt returner and he fumbled just once during his college career.

Brugler’s breakdown: Darden is the 29th-ranked receiver, a prospect who can accelerate to top speed with one step, has the ability to stretch the field to get behind the secondary and tracks the ball flight well downfield.

“Darden has electric feet to win off the line, separate out of his breaks or create with the ball in his hands — only DeVonta Smith and Amari Rodgers had more yards after the catch (576) in 2020,” Brugler writes. “Darden is obviously undersized, which will limit his role potential in the NFL, but his foot quickness and home run gear will leave defenders in his dust.”

Other notable prospects available were defensive tackle Bobby Brown III (Texas A&M), cornerback Tre Brown (Oklahoma), safety Tyree Gillespie (Missouri) and running back Chris Evans (Michigan).

Outlook

With just four selections, the Chiefs can be optimistic about their rookie class. All four players will enter the NFL with clear roles that they can expand as they develop. The best outcome for Davis, Odeyingbo, Tremble and Darden is that such a group has similar accomplishments in 2021 to the Chiefs’ rookie class in 2019 after the blockbuster trade for Clark. In 2019, Hardman, Thornhill, defensive tackle Khalen Saunders and cornerback Rashad Fenton all contributed to the team becoming champions that season.

Of course, the biggest takeaway for the Chiefs from this draft is that they acquired Brown, a two-time Pro Bowler, to protect Mahomes’ blind side.

When evaluating my three trades in this mock, Pro Football Focus felt I did a fine job. With the trades and the prospects I selected, my overall grade was a B-. The best-evaluated decision was selecting Odeyingbo with the 67th pick, which produced an A- grade.

[In58men]

That’s ****ing sexy

[The Franchise]

I can already tell a bunch of people would flip out at this.

A LB who isn’t going to get a ton of snaps to start
A DE coming off an ACL tear.
A backup TE.
And a small WR who isn’t going to play X.

[Kellerfox]

Thanks for sharing!


Turner is light years ahead of Odeyingbo in terms of ability to make a year 1 impact (IMO), and has a higher long term ceiling too. I understand the parameters Nate was trying to operate within, but we would be much better off in this scenario staying put and taking Davis & Turner.

If Veach truly sees the talent falling off a cliff after the 3rd (ie, a 4th rounder this year is a lAte day 3 or UDFA in any other year) then I don’t mind the idea of packaging our late picks to move up... ultimately having as few as 4 picks. It’s risky to have fewer eggs in the basket, but this year is a unique situation. If they just don’t think late round picks have the usual probability to ‘hit,’ swap them for draft capital you think worthwhile. I like Tremble and could get behind that option.

For the 4th here, I love Darden but don’t think he’s the fit we need. Too redundant with Hill and Hardman (IMO). I’d rather take the best DB available at that point - someone like Ambry Thomas, Zech McPhearson, or Divine Deablo.

Not sure I’d call it plan A, but I could get behind:

58. Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
63. Peyton Turner, DE, Houston
95-100. Tommy Tremble, TE, Notre Dame
144. Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan / Zech McPhearson, CB, Texas Tech / Devine Deablo, S, Virginia Tech

[Kiimo]

The Kentucky connection is interesting considering Matt House.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

I can already tell a bunch of people would flip out at this.

A LB who isn’t going to get a ton of snaps to start
A DE coming off an ACL tear.
A backup TE.
And a small WR who isn’t going to play X.

Well, it's a shitty draft. Dane Brugler sucks and has always sucked.

I have no idea why anyone would rely on him for NFL projections. The dude is a joke.

[DaneMcCloud]

It's also difficult for me to believe that the Chiefs would spend two consecutive 2nd round draft picks on the linebacker position, which is their least valued position on defense.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Well, it's a shitty draft. Dane Brugler sucks and has always sucked.

I have no idea why anyone would rely on him for NFL projections. The dude is a joke.

This is actually Nate Taylor’s mock, but he’s not really a draft guy so that’s why it’s not very good or realistic.

1. Jamin Davis isn’t making it to 58. Some teams reportedly have him as LB1. Pretty sure the over/under for him is like pick 26.

2. Dayo Odeyingbo is a 2nd round talent that would’ve been on my short list at 94, but barring a trade back or him falling to the 4th, I don’t think he’s a guy the Chiefs will draft now that they no longer have a 3rd. The Achilles injury takes him out of round 2.

3. Tommy Tremble making it to 95 is also unlikely.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by staylor26

This is actually Nate Taylor’s mock, but he’s not really a draft guy so that’s why it’s not very good or realistic.

Right but he also said he based his draft on Brugler's draft guide:

We also reference and utilize the thorough evaluations of prospects from Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft analyst who published his annual draft guide — known as “The Beast” — earlier this month

Regardless, Nate Taylor is no Terez Paylor when it comes to Chiefs mock drafts.

[KChiefs1]

The draft is where I really miss Terez Paylor's insight. Dude was all over it.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Right but he also said he based his draft on Brugler's draft guide:



Regardless, Nate Taylor is no Terez Paylor when it comes to Chiefs mock drafts.

Ahh I see. My bad.

Yea Taylor is absolutely a “wannabe” Terez.