Yes I know....another WR thread in the draft forum. This one is different though. Lately there has been a lot of talk about target percentages and comps to other WRs based on output and combine numbers.
I present to you.....Rotoworld's pre-draft rookie WR ranks. Let's start with an explanation.
Quote:
These rankings are fantasy football-focused and driven by statistical metrics that I'll explain throughout the profiles. These rankings also factor in expected NFL draft position. NFL draft position, and the scouting that drives it, plays a huge role in prospects' success and failure. The biggest post-draft swings in my rankings will come from draft-dependent prospects locking in high draft capital and strong analytical prospects slipping more than expected in the draft.
These profiles also include statistical comps. These comps are based on key metrics for wide receivers like career production, college breakout, and underclassman status. They also factor in height and weight, but the comps won't always be perfect stylistically. The primary purpose of the comps is to help illuminate a range of outcomes for each player and serve as a reminder that a player's prospect profile is a helpful tool in projecting them to the next level but an imperfect one.
They include a ton of information, so it's going to be a long read but I think the information they provide is valuable.
1) Treylon Burks, Arkansas
Spoiler!
At a glance:
Burks is 6 foot 2, 225 pounds, and excellent after the catch. Although he played primarily from the slot at Arkansas, he will likely play on the outside in the NFL. Burks was highly efficient and productive throughout his three-year career and was successful at a variety of depths. He is likely to be selected in the mid-late first round.
Statistical Comps:
Dez Bryant
Alshon Jeffery
Allen Robinson
JuJu Smith-Schuster
A.J. Brown
Jon Baldwin
N'Keal Harry
Laviska Shenault
Positive Indicators:
Age - Burks finished his college career at 20 years old. He turns 21 in March, which is a strong signal for his chances of becoming a fantasy difference-maker.
Declared early - Wide receivers who turn pro when just three seasons removed from high school have excellent track records.
Underclassman breakout - Burks emerged as a true sophomore with 51 receptions for 820 yards and seven TDs in nine games. Within the context of the Arkansas offense, he was a superstar. At just 19 years old, Burks delivered a 39% yardage share, a 44% TD share, and a 42% dominator rating (average of yardage share and TD share), all of which are ultra-elite age-adjusted numbers.
Dominant final season - Burks' 2021 season was even more impressive. He posted 67 receptions for 1,123 yards and 11 TDs in 12 games as a true junior. At 20 years old, he accounted for nearly half of Arkansas' entire passing offense with a 42% yardage share, a 50% TD share, and a 46% dominator rating.
Career yardage share - Burks finished his college career with a 36% career yardage share--an elite mark for any player. For a three-year player, 36% is off the charts. Since 2007, Burks is one of only seven three-year wide receivers to post a 35%+ career yardage share at 210+ pounds. The other six are Calvin Johnson, Kenny Britt, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson, and Amari Cooper.
Yards per route run - Burks was extremely efficient in his final two seasons. He posted 3.07 YPRR as a sophomore and followed up with 3.57 YPRR as a junior. Burks didn't have a ton of target competition, but his YPRR was over 3x higher than his teammates' combined average in 2021. He wasn't just a little better than his teammates. Burks was the definition of a standout player.
Versatility - Burks played 80% of his snaps in the slot as a sophomore and 68% as a junior. He was more productive and efficient in 2021 while playing less out of the slot, which is great news because he'll likely play on the outside in the NFL. If he successfully transitions out-wide, he'll have no trouble kicking into the slot as needed and should stay on the field at all times.
Yards after catch - Burks delivered an extremely impressive 1.97 YAC per route as a junior. This type of YAC ability is rare for a wide receiver of Burks' size. His 2021 compares favorably to Deebo Samuel's 2016 (1.33 YAC per route), JuJu Smith-Schuster's 2015 season (1.39), and A.J. Brown's 2017 (1.65). Burks also delivered an absurd 4.21 YPRR on screen routes. Burks had a high percentage of schemed production, which is a red flag. But at least Arkansas was scheming for Burks because it was winning them games.
Yards per target - Burks didn't just dominate target share; he dominated when targeted. His 11.3 YPT is very impressive and trails only Jameson Williams and Christian Watson among expected Day 1-2 receivers.
Downfield efficiency - In 2021, Burks had a 9.7 aDOT and saw only 18 20+ yard targets. But he was dominant on those downfield opportunities, delivering a 25.3 YPT, the highest mark in the 2022 class. As a result of his downfield efficiency, Burks produced 45% of his career yards on 20+ yard targets. It takes a bit of projection to envision a college slot receiver as an elite downfield weapon, but Burks has flashed the ability to be a big play outside receiver.
Rushing ability - Burks has 222 career rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry. He has upside to be a special player with the ball in his hands.
Hands - Burks committed 13 drops over his career, so he'll occasionally commit an error. But Burks' hands measure 9.88 inches, which are large by NFL standards. Blair Andrews has shown that hand size appears to make an impact for wide receivers beyond what we'd expect based on draft position alone.
Red Flags:
Target competition - Burks dominated Arkansas' receiving production, but his target competition was soft. Tyson Morris finished second in receiving yards for Arkansas in 2021. At that point, Morris was six years removed from his high school graduation and was just a two-star recruit. Warren Thompson finished third in receiving yards. Thompson was a four-star recruit, but the redshirt junior managed just 304 yards and is unlikely to generate much NFL interest in 2023. Plenty of NFL stars have emerged from college programs with weak target competition. But Burks' teammates still make his incredible market share less awe-inspiring.
Athleticism - Burks' 4.55 40 isn't a red flag for a 6-foot-2, 225-pound receiver. In fact, hidden within it is a bullish signal. Burks had an elite weight-adjusted 10-yard split per Kevin Cole's Combine model. And Burks can fly once up to full speed.
Still, Burks' 33-inch vertical jump and 7.28 3-cone at the Combine are not good for a player projected to be explosive and elusive after the catch. Dane Brugler mentioned on The Athletic Football show that Burks was cutting down from a 2021 playing weight of 240 pounds (!), which may have affected his training somewhat. Burks has since had his pro day and improved his vertical to 35.5 inches, which is much closer to upside comps like A.J. Brown (36.5 inches) and Alshon Jeffery (36.5 inches).
Schemed production - In 2021, Burks produced 20% of his receiving total on screens. This isn't quite Laviska Shenault's 31% in 2018, Curtis Samuel's 41% in 2014, or Rondale Moore's 41% in 2020, but it's still a significant chunk of his production. Burks is frequently comped to A.J. Brown because both are excellent after the catch and played in the slot in college. But Brown never topped 8% of his receiving yards on screen passes. Concerningly, there is a different big-bodied receiver from the 2019 class who feasted on designed targets--N'Keal Harry--who also produced 20% of his receiving yards on screens. Although, with 3.04 YPRR on screen routes, Harry was far less efficient on his schemed touches than Burks (4.21).
Burks also produced 21% of his receiving yards on targets behind the line of scrimmage. Some of that production overlaps with his screen usage, but not all. After our wide receiver deep dive podcast, Anthony Amico noted that college offenses have started incorporating more flips on jet sweeps. This is turning what used to be rushing yards into receiving yards. And while rushing yards are a positive peripheral, flip passes can inflate receiving lines. To that point, Burks produced 48% of his YAC on behind the line of scrimmage targets in 2021, somewhat inflating his after-catch reputation.
But it's worth pointing out that Burks was incredible on these plays. Among players at all positions with 15+ behind the LOS targets, Burks was fourth in the nation in YPT in 2021. And he was 25th in the nation in 2020.
Burks also has plenty of yards to spare in his receiving line. If we strip out his behind the line of scrimmage production in 2021 (235 yards), he would still have had a 36% yardage share. As it stands, Burks had a 42% yardage share in 2021, with 112 rushing yards. If he instead had a 36% yardage share and 347 hyper-efficient rushing yards, we'd probably be just as excited about Burks as we currently are.
Moreover, Burks produced 35% of his YAC on targets 10+ yards downfield, which is in line with Brandon Aiyuk (34%), A.J. Brown (36%), and Jaylen Waddle (40%)--players who have flashed NFL YAC ability in a non-gadget role.
Given his somewhat non-traditional skillset, Burks could be misused at the NFL level. But his ability to produce YAC on schemed touches is not a bad thing. We'll only find this frustrating if it's the only thing Burks can reliably do well. As long as he can operate as a traditional receiver, it's actually ideal if his NFL team schemes extra opportunities. But if Burks doesn't develop into a conventional NFL receiver, he could depend on schemed touches for production.
Intermediate production - Only 18% of Burks' career yardage came on targets 10-19 yards downfield. This is a lower percentage than converted running back Wan'Dale Robinson (19%), and the third-lowest mark among likely Day 1-2 receivers. This could go one of two ways. We've seen paltry intermediate production from players like Christian Kirk (19%) and Rondale Moore (19%), which reinforces the concern that Burks could have trouble translating to the outside. But we've also seen low intermediate production from big deep threats like Michael Pittman (22%), Terry McLaurin (20%), DK Metcalf (19%), and Chase Claypool (18%). The critical factor will be how well Burks can immediately contribute downfield while working on his intermediate game.
Translatable downfield ability - Burks was outstanding on his downfield targets in college, but there are some red flags in terms of how his game may translate to the NFL level. Of Burks' 18 deep targets in 2021, eight of them were contested. He posted a very strong 63% contested catch rate, but he could land with a quarterback who prefers not to throw the jump ball. It's also possible that Burks has more difficulty bullying NFL cornerbacks. And the fact that Burks only saw 18 deep targets in the first place is a minor red flag. But, again, Burks was outstanding as a downfield receiver at Arkansas, with 45% of his career yardage coming on targets 20+ yards downfield. The red flag here is primarily that if Burks can't translate as a deep threat, it could severely limit his overall NFL impact.
Outlook:
Burks' career production is truly rare for a three-year prospect, and his production was off the charts over his final two seasons. Arkansas got him the ball constantly but in ways that may not perfectly translate to the NFL game. Still, he was wildly efficient throughout his career, regardless of where he was targeted. This makes it hard to believe that he is a middling talent who was fed opportunities because of poor target competition or that he will be dependent on schemed targets for production.
Burks is not a prototypical outside wide receiver. He played primarily out of the slot and did most of his damage on shallow targets while also flashing elite downfield ability. As a result, he's probably more landing spot dependent than most receivers in this class. He doesn't need a genius to unlock him, but the wrong offensive coordinator could hide what he does best. For now, his potential to emerge as an NFL target dominator with elite big-play ability is simply too enticing not to rank him WR1.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Early 1st
2) Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
Spoiler!
At a glance:
Wilson is slightly built at 6 foot, 183 pounds, but he should still be able to play on the outside. If so, he offers inside/outside versatility. Wilson lacks elite career production but broke out as a true sophomore and played alongside elite target competition. Wilson is a lock for the first round of the NFL draft and could go top 10-15.
Statistical Comps:
CeeDee Lamb
Jaylen Waddle
Calvin Ridley
Will Fuller
Nelson Agholor
Jalen Reagor
Positive Indicators:
Declared early.
Underclassman breakout - Wilson broke out with a 34% yardage share, a 27% TD share, and a 31% dominator rating as a sophomore. He nearly delivered another breakout season in 2021 with a 29% DR.
Played with other talented wide receivers - Wilson was playing alongside Chris Olave, who is expected to be a first-round pick. Olave is older than Wilson and was a year ahead of him in school, yet as a junior, Wilson had a 27% yardage share to Olave's 22% and a 29% dominator rating to Olave's 28%. Wilson was also competing for targets with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a five-star prospect who emerged as a highly efficient weapon in 2021 and posted a 32% yardage share, with an absurdly impressive receiving line of 95-1,605-9 in 13 games.
Competing for targets with another highly drafted receiver has been a strong signal for combos like Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, and DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins (among others). Wilson was in the unusual position of playing alongside a very talented upperclassman while competing with a very talented true sophomore in Smith-Njibba. If Olave and Smith-Njiba are what we expect them to be in the NFL, Wilson will almost certainly be a high-quality NFL starter.
On the other hand, Terrace Marshall flopped badly as a rookie, despite playing well as a sophomore alongside Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, and the Tennessee duo of Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter (who went in the first and second round of the 2013 draft) is a reminder that correlation works both positively and negatively.
Yards per route run - Wilson posted 3.04 YPRR as a sophomore with the rest of Ohio State combining for just 1.43. He then posted 3.0 YPRR as a junior, far more efficient than Olave's 2.29. Although, admittedly, nowhere near Smith-Njigba's ultra-elite 4.01 YPRR. Wilson competed with top-tier college talent, but we don't need to make excuses for him. He was still extremely efficient.
Versatility - Wilson played 73% of his snaps in the slot in 2020 and then 83% of his snaps out wide in 2021. He was exceptional in both roles, which is an excellent sign for his ability to succeed in a variety of NFL offenses.
Downfield ability - While operating primarily as a slot receiver in 2021, Wilson had a 13.4 aDOT. He may not have been playing on the outside, but he was still beating defenses deep. In 2021, Wilson had an 11.6 aDOT, operating as more of an intermediate option. Wilson is not a pure deep threat with a solid but not off-the-charts 35% of his career yards coming on deep targets. But he should be a capable downfield option with the ability to challenge NFL defense at multiple levels.
Rushing ability - Wilson produced 143 yards and a TD as a rusher over the last two seasons. With that in mind... it may surprise you to learn that Wilson has just six career rushing attempts. Wilson's YAC numbers aren't as good as some other receivers in this class, but with a career YPC of 23.8, he'll likely be just fine with the ball in his hands.
Athleticism - Wilson checked the necessary boxes at the Combine, running a 4.38 40 and turning in a broad jump of 123 inches and a 36-inch vertical. Teams shouldn't have any issues targeting him in the mid-first round or earlier.
Hands - Wilson's hands measure 9.88 inches, which gives him larger hands than 6-foot-4 Drake London.
Red Flags:
Weight - Wilson is unexpectedly light at 6 foot, 183 pounds. This puts statistical comps like Sammy Watkins (6 foot 1, 211 pounds) out of reach and makes him look closer to a taller Jaylen Waddle (5 foot 10, 180 pounds). Wilson's 4.38 speed keeps his weight from being a major red flag, but it's still harder to see him becoming a fantasy superstar. His weight creates the possibility for him to fall into the mold of Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks and provide more real-life value than fantasy value in most of his NFL seasons. Then again, Wilson weighs just six pounds less than Calvin Ridley did as a prospect. And Wilson (4.38 40, 123-inch broad, 36-inch vertical) is far more athletic than Ridley (4.43 40, 110-inch broad, 31-inch vertical). And at 6 foot, Wilson could easily play at closer to 190 and emerge as a more athletic Ridley, which would come with more than enough fantasy upside.
Outlook:
Wilson has a nearly spotless statistical profile. He doesn't crush production metrics like Treylon Burks or Skyy Moore (who we'll get to soon), but Wilson's target competition at Ohio State was orders of magnitude more talented. Of course, target competition isn't everything. Terrace Marshall reminded us that not every wide receiver who plays alongside star receivers in college will become an immediate star. But with Wilson, the fact that he played with Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn't an excuse. Wilson was highly productive and efficient over his final two seasons. His talented teammates may have prevented him from delivering a scorched earth campaign, but they didn't stop him from checking every analytical box. In that sense, Wilson has a very similar profile to Sammy Watkins (who played with DeAndre Hopkins at Clemson), Odell Beckham (who played with Jarvis Landry at LSU), and Justin Jefferson (Ja'Marr Chase at LSU). Or, put differently, he looks like a more productive version of Jaylen Waddle (Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, DeVonta Smith, John Metchie at Alabama).
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Early 1st
3) Drake London, USC
Spoiler!
At a glance:
London is 6 foot 4, 219 pounds, and turned in a dominant true junior season. Unfortunately, his breakout 2021 was cut short by a fractured ankle. He has a chance to be the first wide receiver off the board if he shows well at his April pro day.
Statistical Comps:
Kenny Britt
Josh Gordon
Alshon Jeffery
Tee Higgins
Stephen Hill
N'Keal Harry
Positive Indicators:
Age - London finished his college career at just 20 years old. He turns 21 in July.
Declared early.
Dominant breakout season - London broke out as a junior, combining for over 30% of his team's receiving yardage and TDs. London didn't just clear the 30% breakout threshold... he delivered a 42% dominator rating in his final season, going for 1,084 receiving yards and seven TDs in eight games.
Career yardage share - London wasn't nearly as dominant in his first two seasons, but he also wasn't bad. He finished his three-year career with a 29% yardage share, which is a strong mark for an underclassman.
Final season yards per route run - London delivered 3.52 YPRR as a junior. That is a wildly efficient showing and far more efficient than his USC teammates, who combined for just 1.16 YPRR.
Versatility - London emerged as a dominant wide receiver while playing 86% of his snaps on the outside as an X-WR. Before that, however, he was a slot receiver. He played 98% of his snaps in the slot as a freshman and 92% as a sophomore. He'll likely play on the outside in the NFL, but he could potentially operate in a big slot role as needed.
Yards after catch - London delivered 460 YAC in 2021--46 more than Garrett Wilson, despite playing three fewer games, and 184 more than Chris Olave, despite playing four fewer games. London should be an explosive option at the NFL level even if he gets used as a possession wide receiver at times.
Contested catch ability - In 2021, London had a 68% contested catch rate and 19 contested receptions, the second-highest single-season mark in the class. He would pair very well with a quarterback willing to throw jump balls.
Weight - USC listed London at 6 foot 5, 210 pounds, which created concern that he would be too slender to adapt his contested catch skill set to the NFL game. London's Combine weigh-in of 6 foot 4, 219 pounds keeps big-bodied downfield receiving comps like Vincent Jackson (6 foot 5, 241 pounds), Calvin Johnson (6 foot 5, 239 pounds), and Mike Evans (6 foot 5, 231 pounds) out of reach. But he profiles similarly to players like Josh Gordon (6 foot 3, 225 pounds), Alshon Jeffery (6 foot 3, 216 pounds), and Tee Higgins (6 foot 4, 216 pounds). It's still possible that he ends up as the next Stephen Hill (6 foot 4, 215 pounds), but London's skill set looks more likely to translate with his heavier than expected weight.
Red Flags:
Only one dominant season - London wasn't bad in his first two seasons, but his 19% dominator rating as a freshman and 22% DR as a sophomore were nowhere near as impressive as his junior season.
London did at least have a decent excuse for starting his career slow.
As a freshman, London competed with senior and future second-round pick Michael Pittman and sophomore and future fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown. Pittman graduated the following year, but St. Brown had a breakout season with a 33% dominator rating. London's strong teammate competition helps explain why we have just one breakout season from him. Still, given that his final season consisted of only eight games, London is riskier than if we had a multi-year sample of him playing at an elite level.
Schemed production - London saw 28 screen passes in 2021, the 16th most in the FBS, and London's 3.5 screen targets per game are the most in the 2022 draft class. He also produced 17% of his receiving yards on screens, which may not translate at his size unless he is an elite athlete.
In 2021, London also produced 17% of his receiving yards on targets behind the line of scrimmage, and 54% of London's YAC came on behind the line of scrimmage targets. If he's used as a more traditional NFL wide receiver, his college YAC ability may not translate.
However, it's also important to note that London was extremely efficient when used on schemed touches. London had 4.02 YPRR on screen passes and a 6.5 YPT on behind the LOS passes. So it's not like USC was force-feeding him inefficient touches.
London was also used differently in his first two seasons. As a freshman, 0% of his yards came on behind the line of scrimmage targets. As a sophomore, only 4% of his yards and 12% of his YAC came on behind the LOS targets.
If London only produced because of schemed touches, that's very bad. But if he can produce as a traditional receiver and his team will be interested in feeding him additional touches, fantasy managers will be delighted. Like with Burks, there's both upside and downside in his schemed touch profile.
Intermediate production - London did very little in his career in the intermediate area. Only 16% of London's career yards came between 10-19 yards downfield, the lowest among likely Day 1-2 receivers.
This fits with an analysis by Dwain McFarland that shows that London ranked 19th in the class in YPRR on NFL staple routes. Only Jahn Dotson was lower among likely Day 1-2 receivers.
Like with Burks, Drake's raw intermediate game places more weight on his ability as a deep threat.
Translatable downfield ability - London had an aDOT of just 9.2 in 2021. That's not much higher than Laviska Shenault's 8.7 career aDOT and quite a bit lower than N'Keal Harry's 11.1 career aDOT. London will probably be asked to win on the outside, but it's possible that his contested catch success doesn't translate against NFL corners--as we saw with Harry, who like London, had 19 contested catches as a junior. In London's defense, only nine of his 23 deep targets were contested. By comparison, Harry had 13 of 18 deep targets contested in his final season. Drake could have separation issues in the intermediate areas of the field, but if he can get open deep that may not matter.
London produced a respectable 38% of his career yards on deep targets. But like Burks, he has a thin downfield resume, with just 40 career deep targets, 19% of his target total. As a raw player on intermediate routes, London's ability to threaten deep will be critical for his early career success.
Unknown athleticism - For the time being, we don't have any measurables on London's athleticism. But he is expected to work out at his pro day. London's timed speed will have a meaningful impact on his profile because he had a lot of success on underneath throws and has a limited downfield sample.
His leaping ability, however, is not in question.
Outlook:
London looks on track for at least a mid-first round selection in the NFL draft, and he could be the first wide receiver off the board. His 2021 breakout season was very impressive in many ways, but it was also built on short passes and contested catches. If those skills translate to the NFL, he could be the next Josh Gordon. However, his lack of intermediate production creates a lower than ideal floor if he's used as a traditional outside wide receiver and isn't dominant downfield.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Early 1st
4) Jameson Williams, Alabama
Spoiler!
At a glance:
Williams is a 6-foot-1.5, 179-pound deep threat with the ability to mix into the slot. After transferring from Ohio State to Alabama, he blew up as a true junior but then suffered an ACL tear in the National Title game. He would have been a locked-in first-round pick before his injury. He now looks like a lock for Day 2 with a shot to still go in the late first.
Statistical Comps:
Will Fuller
Henry Ruggs
Jaylen Waddle
Elijah Moore
Ted Ginn
Mario Manningham
Positive Indicators:
Age - Williams finished his college career at 20 years old and will play his entire rookie season at 21.
Declared early.
Dominant final season - Williams operated as Alabama's WR1 in his first year in the program, posting 79 receptions for 1,572 yards and 15 TDs in 15 games. He accounted for 31% of Alabama's receiving yards and 31% of their TDs, producing a breakout season.
Played with other talented wide receivers - Williams played alongside John Metchie in 2021, who looked like a locked-in Day 2 pick before tearing his ACL. Williams' lack of production at Ohio State is also easier to understand given that he was competing with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave for targets with Jaxon Smith-Njigba waiting in the wings.
Yards per route run - Williams delivered 3.12 YPRR in 2021, which was significantly better than his teammates. Williams wasn't Alabama's top option by default; he was earning his targets. And although he wasn't a big part of the Ohio State offense, he still finished with a strong career YPRR of 2.51.
Yards per target - Williams also made the most of his targets, delivering an absurd 13.05 YPT, the highest mark in the class. Williams is one of just five drafted wide receivers since 2019 with a career YPT of 13+. The other four are Marquise Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, and Jaylen Waddle.
Downfield ability - Williams has a 14.8 career aDOT. He also produced 79% of his yardage on targets 10+ yards downfield, which is the highest mark among likely Day 1-2 receivers and higher than Terry McLaurin (65%), Darius Slayton (70%), Darnell Mooney (70%), DK Metcalf (71%), Gabriel Davis (74%), Tee Higgins (76%), and Courtland Sutton (78%). Williams has a clear role waiting for him as an NFL field stretcher.
Versatility - Williams played 28% of his snaps in the slot in 2021. He profiles primarily as an outside deep threat but has the upside to be an every-down receiver.
Intermediate Production - Dedicated downfield threats aren't always great for fantasy, but Williams can also rack up yards on intermediate routes. 38% of his career yards came on targets 10-19 yards downfield, which is the second-highest mark among likely Day 1-2 receivers. He will probably start his career as a pure outside deep threat but has the ceiling to emerge as a true No. 1 receiver.
Yards after catch - It's generally much easier to rack up yards after the catch on short passes and screens than by operating as a deep threat, but Williams averaged 1.44 YAC per route in 2021. That's an impressive mark in any context. The context here is that 72% of Williams' YAC came on targets past the line of scrimmage, and screens made up just 9% of Williams' yardage total. His college after-catch ability is a very promising sign for his potential to be an elite playmaker downfield. Williams will likely see a lot of intermediate and deep targets in the NFL. If he adds YAC in a meaningful way, he will be a big-play machine.
Special Teams ability - Given his torn ACL, we won't get measurables on Williams. Therefore, it's helpful to know that he turned 10 college kickoff returns into 352 yards and 2 TDs. The combination of extremely efficient special teams play and his dominant downfield season at Alabama makes it hard to believe he doesn't have the necessary on-field speed to be an NFL deep threat.
Red Flags:
Only one dominant season - Williams' lack of production before 2021 adds some downside risk to his profile. While it's understandable why he struggled to see the field at Ohio State, it's still far from ideal. Fortunately, William's breakout season was on a large 15 game sample and impressive from both a raw stats and market share perspective.
Weight - Williams weighed in at the Combine at just 179 pounds, which gives him a very slender frame at 6 foot 1.5. He could easily put on weight as a pro... which is good because he'll probably need to. This would be a bigger red flag if Williams had a normal pre-Combine training routine. Had he not been rehabbing from an ACL tear, it's very plausible Wiliams would have weighed in at 185+ pounds.
Unknown athleticism - There's little reason to doubt Williams' speed, but it would still be nice to have athletic measurables on the top deep specialist in the class. Williams' weight also makes his raw speed more important. As a sub-190 pound player, it would be great to know for sure that he has sub-4.4 speed.
Injury - Williams' late ACL tear is by far his biggest red flag. He likely won't be 100% until late into the 2022 season. If he is mediocre in his NFL debut, the fantasy community should be more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but that's often not how fantasy football works. Williams' dynasty value could take a meaningful hit if he doesn't have an impressively quick recovery from a major knee injury.
Outlook:
Williams would profile like an early first-round rookie pick if he weren't coming off a January ACL tear. That injury could cost him most of his rookie season or lead to uninspiring results when he initially takes the field. That downside risk mars an otherwise excellent profile. Still, Williams is likely to successfully operate as an NFL deep threat, even at around 180 pounds, and he could develop into a true WR1 in year two or three once he gets back to full health. Williams will be an ideal upside bet if he falls to the late first round of rookie drafts.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Mid 1st
5) Skyy Moore, Western Michigan
Spoiler!
At a glance:
Moore is a highly productive underclassman with inside/outside versatility. He impressed at the Combine and now looks like a locked-in Day 2 pick. His profile suggests strong route-running skills with an ability to add significant yards after the catch. He'll likely spend a lot of time in the slot, but at 5 foot 10, 195 pounds, he has the requisite size to play on the outside as well.
Statistical Comps:
Golden Tate
Stefon Diggs
Robert Woods
Tyler Boyd
Earl Bennett
Marqise Lee
Nelson Agholor
Christian Kirk
Positive Indicators:
Declared early.
Dominant final season - Moore broke out as a junior in 2021 with 95 receptions for 1,288 yards and 10 TDs. His prolific raw stats are even more impressive in the context of his offense. Moore produced a 41% yardage share and 45% TD share for an extremely impressive 43% dominator rating.
Career yardage share - Moore didn't break out in his first two seasons, but he was productive, finishing with 26% and 29% yardage shares. Over the course of his career, he produced a 33% yardage share, which is an elite mark for a three-year wide receiver.
Yards per route run - Some small school receivers benefit from a lack of target competition. But Western Michigan seems to have benefitted far more from Moore than he did from playing for a smaller program. Moore produced 2.51 YPRR as a freshman, 2.61 YPRR as a sophomore, and an elite 3.40 YPRR as a junior. He finished with an elite 2.92 career YPRR. Among three-year wide receivers drafted on Day 1 or 2 since 2017, only Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Laviska Shenault, Ja'Marr Chase, and Jaylen Waddle have a higher career YPPR.
Played with other talented wide receivers - This is a very small positive signal, but it's worth noting that Moore played with D'Wayne Eskridge in 2020. Eskridge was a massive reach by the Seahawks in the second round of the 2021 draft, but he is still an NFL-caliber receiver. And Moore competed with Eskridge for targets as a 20-year-old sophomore when Eskridge was a 23-year-old fifth-year senior. I would argue that Moore's 26% dominator rating is slightly more impressive in that context. That said, Moore only played five games in 2020 and actually took a medical redshirt, so his overlap with Eskridge is more interesting than actionable. His 2020 season is short enough that it shouldn't have a huge impact on his prospect profile either way.
Versatility - Moore played 16% of his snaps in the slot in 2019. Then in 2020, he transitioned inside for 89% of his snaps. But in his breakout 2021, his slot snaps were down to 35%. Moore will likely operate out of the slot in the NFL, but he may not be limited to it. His college profile indicates upside for an every snap NFL role.
Yards after catch - With a name like Skyy, Moore's highlight reel can be a bit disappointing...
Moore is a savvy route runner but is not a vertical player and won't be skying for TDs at the NFL level. While that may sound boring, Moore is anything but boring with the ball in his hands. As a freshman, Moore averaged 1.08 YAC per route. He increased to 1.39 as a sophomore and 1.41 as a junior. In the PFF database, the only Day 1-2 wide receivers to average 1+ YAC per route run in all three underclassman seasons are CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, and Anthony Schwartz. This class has the potential to add two more to that list in Moore and Wan'Dale Robinson.
Moore's YAC ability also looks like the real deal rather than being a product of glorified rushing attempts. Only 18% of Moore's career YAC came on behind the LOS targets with 47% coming on targets 10+ yards downfield. The ability to draw targets and produce after the catch is a glorious combination in fantasy football, and Moore displayed rare YAC ability for an underclassman.
Intermediate Production - Moore is likely to do most of his damage at the intermediate level, which should translate easily to most NFL offenses. Moore produced 46% of his yardage on targets 10-19 yards downfield, the highest among 2022's high expected draft capital prospects. Moore also led the class in YPRR on NFL staple routes, per Dwain McFarland.
If Moore earns targets heavily at the intermediate level and is competent as a deep receiver, he has potential to emerge as a PPR superstar.
Athleticism - Moore needed to show strong athleticism at the Combine, given his less than elite competition at Western Michigan. His 4.41 40, and 125-inch broad jump should convince scouts that his tape can be trusted. Moore only had a 34.5-inch vertical, which isn't great. But given his playstyle, slightly below-average hops shouldn't be a big issue.
Hands - Moore, at only 5 foot 10, has the biggest hands in the wide receiver class at 10.25 inches. Since 2005, the NFL has drafted just eight underclassmen who were 6 foot 1 or less and had 10-inch+ hands: Hakeem Nicks, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Henry Ruggs. Moore had just eight career drops in college, and while his hands are far less important than his production and efficiency, Moore's large mitts leave little doubt that he will be able to translate his ball skills to the NFL.
Red Flags:
Level of competition - In the list above, Moore is the only receiver who did not play for a Power 5 school. And in fact, the list of star NFL receivers from non-Power 5 schools is fairly small. Since 2005, non-Power 5 FBS schools have produced just 11 NFL breakouts: Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Diontae Johnson, and Darnell Mooney. None of these players broke out as a rookie (although all but White and Adams broke out in year two). Moore's level of competition creates risk that he could get off to a slow start in the NFL as he adjusts to a big gap in competition. More importantly, it's possible that he simply isn't as good as he appeared to be while playing against lesser talents.
We shouldn't get carried away here, though. Non-Power 5 schools fundamentally do not produce a lot of early declare receivers. Since 2005, only Dante Ridgeway, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Rashard Higgins, DeMarcus Ayers, Gabriel Davis, and Dax Milne have been drafted after just three years at a non-Power 5 FBS program. Adams is the only one of those wide receivers to go on Day 2. Moore's level of competition keeps him from being a slam dunk prospect, but if an NFL team thinks he's a Day 2 pick, it makes sense to trust them.
Downfield ability - Moore isn't a field stretcher with just 19% of his career yards coming on deep targets. That's the lowest rate among likely Day 1-2 receivers and in the gadget player danger zone. Deebo Samuel (24%), Kadarius Toney (24%), Laviska Shenault (24%), Amari Rodgers (22%), and Isaiah McKenzie (22%) all had a higher percentage of their career yards on 20+ yard targets, and Moore wasn't far ahead of Ray-Ray McCloud (19%) and Rondale Moore (17%). This lack of downfield production could signal a lower NFL ceiling that we'd like or that Moore will be scheme-dependent.
However, Moore was extremely productive at the intermediate level and highly efficient on NFL staple routes, making it hard to believe he'll depend on designed touches. Moore produced 46% of his yards on targets 10-19 yards downfield. Samuel (29%), McKenzie (26%), Rodgers (25%), Toney (24%), Shenault (23%), Moore (19%), and McCloud (15%) were nowhere near him. He profiles more similarly to Jakobi Meyers, who produced only 17% of his yards on deep targets and 39% on intermediate targets. And... he's not dissimilar from Justin Jefferson (25%; 44%).
Moore's intermediate ability should earn him targets. The question is whether he'll be limited to targets out of the slot, operating as a Meyers type, or whether he can eventually develop enough downfield to become a complete receiver in the mold of Stefon Diggs.
Outlook:
Moore checks all the boxes from an analytical perspective. That gives him a high floor. Even if he's a fantasy "bust," he's likely to provide real-life value somewhere in the spectrum of Rashard Higgins - Christian Kirk. His ceiling takes a bit more projection. With a lack of deep production in college, he may top out as a Tyler Boyd type. But if he can develop a downfield repertoire, his ceiling is on a different level entirely. While Moore might not jump off the television on Sundays, he profiles as a quarterback's best friend at the intermediate level. If he can move around the formation and earn targets at a variety of depths, his after the catch ability sets Moore up to become a multi-year fantasy star.
At a glance:
Olave is slightly undersized at 6 foot, 187 pounds but profiles as a classic outside deep threat, and his ability to challenge deep should translate with 4.39 speed. Olave lacks ideal career production over his four seasons but was highly efficient as an underclassman. He's a 1st-round lock.
Statistical Comps:
Santonio Holmes
Emmanuel Sanders
DeVonta Smith
Anthony Gonzalez
Devin Smith
Corey Coleman
Positive Indicators:
Underclassman breakout - Olave broke out as a true junior in 2020 with a 37% yardage share and a 32% TD share for a 34% dominator rating (average of yardage share and TD share).
Played with other talented wide receivers - Olave was the most experienced wide receiver of Ohio State's talented class. However, he still had to compete with Garrett Wilson for targets for two seasons. He also had to deal with Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 2021 emergence, and he helped keep Jameson Williams on the bench in 2020. It's safe to assume that his share of the offense would have been higher on a less loaded depth chart.
Underclassman yards per route run - Over his first three seasons at Ohio State, Olave averaged 3.17 YPRR, the second-best underclassman mark in the 2022 class behind only Justyn Ross. Since 2019, the only other drafted wide receivers with an early-career YPRR of 3+ are Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Tylan Wallace.
Olave also had two outstandingly efficient underclassman seasons with 3.38 YPRR as a sophomore and 3.33 YPRR as a junior. He was also far more efficient than his teammates' average in those seasons. So while it's a red flag that Olave stayed in school for four years, it's not clear that he needed that extra season to earn first-round draft capital.
Downfield ability - NFL teams won't have to think too hard about how to deploy Olave. He had a 15.5 career aDOT, and 72% of his yardage came on targets 10+ yards downfield.
Intermediate ability - In his peak 2020 season, Olave's aDOT was 12.9, the shallowest of his career. Olave also produced 32% of his career yards on targets 10-19 yards downfield, the same percentage as Jerry Jeudy. Olave should see plenty of work as a field stretcher, but he's unlikely to be a purely one-dimensional deep threat.
Speed - Olave ran a 4.39 40, which should help his chances of converting his downfield ability to the NFL game.
Red Flags:
Four-year player. Wide receivers who turn pro when just three seasons removed from high school have much stronger track records than 4+ year players.
Disappointing final season - Olave underwhelmed in his final season, delivering a 22% yardage share and 33% TD share for a 28% dominator rating. His slump is understandable given that he had to compete for targets with Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That said, Olave was a senior in 2021 while Wilson was a junior and Smith-Njigba was just a sophomore. Olave's final season looks like a red flag considering his experience level.
Only one dominant season - Olave only hit the breakout threshold as a junior. He had just a 10% dominator rating as a freshman, and he was productive as a sophomore but fell short of a breakout season with a 25% DR. But this is a minor red flag. Given that Olave's best season in YPRR came as a sophomore, it would be unfair to characterize his junior season as his only impressive campaign.
Career yardage share - Olave has a 23% career yardage share, which is concerningly low for a four-year player. Olave's yardage share puts him in a scary group of 4+ year college players even factoring in high draft capital. Low career production was a red flag for busts like Greg Little, Aaron Dobson, Phillip Dorsett, John Ross, and Dante Pettis. It also showed up as a red flag for players who have decidedly underperformed their draft position like Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Williams (Clemson/Chargers), and Van Jefferson. However, some players have overcome this red flag in a big way, with notable recent examples in Michael Thomas, Terry McLaurin, and Chase Claypool.
Final season yards per route run - Olave's YPRR dropped to 2.29 in 2021, making him significantly less efficient than Wilson (3.00) and Smith-Njigba (4.01). If his underclassman teammates are as good as expected, Olave's target competition is about to get easier at the NFL level. Still, it's not a great sign that his efficiency significantly dropped in his senior season along with his production.
Outlook:
Olave is a professional wide receiver and has a deep-threat role waiting for him in the NFL. However, as a four-year player with somewhat inconsistent production and efficiency, Olave's ceiling doesn't look quite as high as others in the class. There's only so far you want to take "low ceiling" analysis, though. Justin Jefferson was viewed as a safe but lower ceiling pick in the 2020 class. Jefferson is a reminder that we often just need to get these picks right at a macro level because we can rarely pinpoint the exact ceiling of a high-level receiver. When a wide receiver hits, the upside is often higher than anyone predicted. Still, Olave doesn't check all the boxes the way Jefferson did or his teammate Garrett Wilson does. He's a four-year player who disappointed in terms of career production and whose efficiency tailed off as a senior. Olave's profile indicates the potential to become a capable real-life player who won't make a huge impact in fantasy. Then again, in the right offense, he could emerge as a peak Emmanuel Sanders-level fantasy producer.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 1st
7) George Pickens, Georgia
Spoiler!
At a glance:
At 6 foot 3, 195 pounds, Pickens is a classic outside deep threat. He excelled as a freshman, disappointed as a sophomore, and then tore his ACL before his junior season. He managed to play in four games in 2021, but his routes were severely curtailed, and the season essentially served as evidence that he was healthy. After running a 4.47 40 at the Combine, Pickens looks locked in as a Day 2 pick with an outside chance to go first round.
Statistical Comps:
Sidney Rice
Jeremy Maclin
Will Fuller
Chad Jackson
Justin Hunter
Terrace Marshall
Positive Indicators:
Age - Pickens turned 21 on March 4th and will play his entire rookie season at 21 years old, which is a strong signal for his chances of becoming a fantasy difference-maker.
Declared early.
True freshman breakout - Pickens was a five-star prospect who produced immediately in the SEC with 49 receptions for 727 yards and eight TDs as a true freshman. He delivered a rare freshman breakout with a 30% dominator rating and looked destined to be a first-round draft pick.
Yards per route run - Pickens was highly efficient as a freshman, delivering 2.64 YPRR while his teammates combined for 1.32 YPRR. However, he fell off in 2020 with just 1.93 YPRR. Pickens then tore his ACL in the spring. He returned for the 2021 season but ran just 32 routes in four games. For what it's worth, Pickens was extremely efficient in that sample with 3.34 YPRR. Ultimately, his curtailed final season doesn't add much to our understanding of his skill level, but hopefully it's a sign that he's well on his way to a 100% recovery from his knee injury.
Downfield ability - Pickens has a 15.4 career aDOT, and his aDOT was at least 15.0 in all three of his seasons. He also never topped 11% of his snaps in the slot in any season. Pickens will play outside, will run deep... and will get targets.
At his 2019 production peak, 34% of Pickens' targets were 20+ yards downfield. That college season, Gabriel Davis was at 32%, Darnell Mooney was at 31%, and Chase Claypool was at 28%. Pickens' deep target rate fell to 26% in 2020, but for his career, Pickens still produced 70% of his yardage on targets 10+ yards downfield. He profiles as a clear outside deep threat as a pro.
Athleticism - Pickens turned in a 4.47 40 at the Combine with a 125-inch broad jump. His 33-inch vertical is a minor red flag, but he slightly improved to 34.5 inches at his Pro Day. Overall, Pickens answered questions positively with his Combine workout, which was less than one year removed from his ACL tear.
Red Flags:
Injury - Pickens' ACL tear in the spring of 2021 cost him a genuine junior season and makes his profile more difficult to evaluate. Technically he has a 22% career yardage share, but that's with four games in 2021 that should be thrown out because he totaled just 32 routes. That brings his yardage share up to 25%, which still probably understates what he would have done in a healthy three-year career. Then again, we don't know that for sure, and his injury will likely cost him draft position and potentially affect his play. Essentially, we can't trust Pickens' analytical profile as much as usual, making him more of a boom/bust bet.
Weight - At just over 6 foot 3, Pickens is a bit slender at 195 pounds. He may be significantly faster than his 4.47 40 once fully healthy, but if not, he won't be able to beat defenders downfield with pure speed. He may need to bulk up a bit to play effectively on the outside.
Yardage share - Pickens was a strong TD producer at Georgia, delivering 33% and 35% TD shares in his two healthy seasons. But his yardage shares weren't quite as impressive at 26% and 23%. The best part of Pickens' prospect profile is his freshman breakout, but that breakout looks less impressive once realizing his 33% TD share was doing most of the work. Of course, we want receivers who can score TDs at the NFL level. But TD scoring is volatile, and Pickens' prospect profile is heavily reliant on his early career TDs.
Raw Stats - Pickens' profile is even more concerning when you realize he even didn't score that many TDs. While yardage share and TD share are preferable to raw stats in most instances, things can get skewed at the margins. For example, Ja'Marr Chase had a 34% TD share as a sophomore, with Pickens at 35%. But Chase hit his mark on the back of 20 TDs in 14 games; Pickens scored just six TDs in eight games. Even in Pickens' freshman breakout, he and just eight TDs in 12 games. His yardage totals were similarly unimpressive, with 727 yards in 2019 and 513 in 2020. We don't want to penalize Pickens too much here. College offenses vary widely in their willingness and ability to throw the ball. But because we already have concerns about Pickens' thin resume, it's troubling that it's also built on weak raw stats.
Outlook:
Pickens is a classic boom/bust prospect. In some ways, he looks very similar to Terrace Marshall, who also had a small sample of excellence and a career-high of just 731 yards. But it's important to keep an open mind on prospects like Pickens. With a similarly concerningly TD-dependent profile, Tee Higgins was 2020's clearest boom/bust selection. Through his first two seasons, Pickens' 25% yardage share was comfortably ahead of Higgins' 23% career yardage share. If Pickens were healthy for his final season, we could be dreaming of a similar ceiling outcome. With the potential to emerge as a skinnier, faster Higgins or disappoint as thoroughly as Marshall, Pickens arguably has one of the widest range of outcomes in the class.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 1st
8) David Bell, Purdue
Spoiler!
At a glance:
Bell is 6 foot 1, 212 pounds, and played on the outside on 88% of his career snaps. However, most of his production came on shallow targets. After a subpar showing at the Combine, he looks like a big slot receiver at the NFL level. Post-combine, he also looks likely to fall to the third round.
Statistical Comps:
Robert Woods
Keenan Allen
Jarvis Landry
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Rueben Randle
Mohamed Sanu
Donte Moncrief
N'Keal Harry
Positive Indicators:
Age - Bell will play nearly his entire rookie season at 21 years old. He turns 22 in December.
Declared early.
Underclassman breakout - In six games in 2020, Bell recorded 53 receptions for 625 yards and eight TDs. That was good for a 34% yardage share, a 53% TD share, and a 44% dominator rating. During this breakout season, Bell had just two receiving yards behind the line of scrimmage and just three yards on screen passes. In other words, his sophomore mega-breakout was not manufactured; at just 19 years old, Bell was carrying Purdue's offense as a traditional wide receiver.
Career yardage share - Bell had a 28% yardage share as a freshman, and a 34% yardage share as a junior, giving him a 31% career yardage share. This is a very strong showing for a three-year wide receiver. Bell wasn't as impressive as a TD scorer but finished with a solid 29% career TD share and a 30% career dominator rating.
Final season yards per route run - Bell was highly efficient as a junior, finishing with 2.70 YPRR with his teammates combining for 1.33 YPRR.
Separation - Bell saw 24 deep targets in 2021 and only seven of those were contested. Overall, only 26 of his 134 targets were contested. As we'll get to, Bell was likely fed targets in 2021 because he was the best option on a bad offense, but Bell was still able to draw open targets.
Red Flags:
YPT - Bell's career yards per target of 8.7 is concerningly low. Even in 2021, when he impressed in YPRR, he had an unimpressive YPT of 9.5. Per-target inefficiency has been a red flag for highly drafted prospects such as Curtis Samuel, Zay Jones, Dante Pettis, N'Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims, Van Jefferson, and Rondale Moore.
Purdue fed Bell targets, but that may say more about Purdue than Bell. Then again, only 5% of Bell's career yards came on screens, and only 5% on behind the line of scrimmage targets. So while it's possible that he only dominated targets because of a lack of better options, it's also possible Bell's YPT was held down by overall passing game inefficiency and a lack of schemed targets. And receivers also overcome poor college YPT. Kenny Golladay, D.J. Moore, and Calvin Ridley had similar career YPT to Bell.
Hands - Bell's hands are fairly small at 9.25 inches, which won't help his YPT ability improve in the pros. Bell also had just a 46% career contested catch rate. Bell is likely to be frustratingly inefficient in contested catch situations, but that's never been his game, with contested-catch targets making up just 3% of his career target total.
Athleticism - Bell didn't completely bomb the Combine... but he came close. Bell's 4.65 40 is a genuine red flag for a 212-pound wide receiver. And his 32-inch vertical and 118-inch broad jump are a sign of below-average explosion. Below-average NFL athletes have been highly successful NFL wide receivers, including:
Robert Woods
4.51 40
33.5-inch vertical
117-inch broad
Jarvis Landry
4.77 40
31.5-inch vertical
113-inch broad
JuJu Smith-Schuster
4.54 40
32.5-inch vertical
120-inch broad
Calvin Ridley
4.43-inch vertical
31-inch vertical
110-inch broad
Cooper Kupp
4.62 40
31-inch vertical
116-inch broad
If Bell is skilled enough to overcome his athleticism, his production profile indicates that his PPR ceiling is still very high. But Bell's poor testing most definitely lowers his chances of hitting at the NFL level and significantly lowers his floor. And Bell used his Pro Day to remove any doubt that he is a below-average NFL athlete, running a 4.71 40; his Combine workout may have been a good day.
Production on shallow targets - Bell produced 37% of his yardage on targets between 0-9 yards downfield, the highest among this year's receivers with Day 1-2 expectations. That's not necessarily a huge red flag, but it reinforces the idea that Bell will operate as more of an underneath receiver in the NFL. As a result, he's likely to be more dependent on offensive passing volume and good quarterback play than other receivers in the class.
Target competition - Bell dominated targets at Purdue, but there often wasn't a reliable option other than Bell in the Purdue offense when Bell was on the field. Bell did overlap with Rondale Moore, but they played together in just seven games over two seasons. And when they did play together, it had an impact. Bell averaged 78 yards in his seven games with Moore; he averaged 101 yards per game in his other 11 games from 2019-20.
Small sample size breakout season - Bell's 2020 breakout came on a sample of just six games. That's not as bad as it sounds; his production was strong enough that he could have logged a seventh game without a single target and still had a breakout season. Nonetheless, his lack of a 2021 follow-up breakout isn't ideal. 2021 wasn't a total bust -- he impressed with a 34% yardage share -- but a 21% TD share held him to a sub-breakout 27% dominator rating.
Outlook:
Bell looks like a specific type of player: an underneath receiver with plus size. We've seen some elite fantasy seasons from this player archetype, even among players who are not strong NFL athletes. We've also seen players in this mold quickly wash out of the league. Bell looks like a boom/bust bet who could emerge as a PRR star if he lands in the right offense and proves adept enough at getting open against NFL coverages.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: Late 1st
9) Christian Watson, North Dakota State
Spoiler!
At a glance:
Watson is an elite athlete with plus size at 6 foot 4, 208 pounds. He operated as a deep threat at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State and was dominant in his final season. However, Watson is quite old for a rookie, is considered very raw by scouts, and has level-of-competition red flags. Regardless, he has been a big pre-draft riser among NFL evaluators and has a realistic chance of going in the first round, with a Day 2 selection looking assured.
Statistical Comps:
Marvin Jones
Terry McLaurin
D.J. Chark
Darius Slayton
Leonard Hankerson
Chris Conley
Miles Boykin
Denzel Mims
Positive Indicators:
Dominant final season - Watson was terrific in his final college season, delivering a 42% yardage share and a 39% TD share for a 41% dominator rating.
Final Season Yards per route run - Watson's 2021 efficiency was off the charts at 4.33 YPRR.
Yards per target - Watson's career 11.9 YPT is the second-highest in the class behind only Jameson Williams. He was electric when targeted.
Hands - Watson has 10.13-inch hands, which are some of the largest in the class, and should help him translate his per-target efficiency. Blair Andrews has shown that hand size appears to make an impact for wide receivers beyond what we'd expect based on draft position alone.
Downfield ability - Watson's 15.6 aDOT is the highest among the wide receivers who look locked into Day 1-2, edging out Chris Olave (15.5) and George Pickens (15.4). Moreover, 51% of Watson's career yardage came on targets 20+ yards downfield. That's not quite at D.J. Chark's (60%) level but above other raw deep threats like Terry McLaurin (45%) and second to Alec Pierce (54%) among 2022's potential Day 1-2 receivers.
Athleticism - At 6 foot 4, 208 pounds, Watson ran a 4.36 40 and posted a 136-inch broad jump and 38.5-inch vertical. Even if all Watson can do as a rookie is run down the field in a straight line... that might work.
Special Teams ability - Watson averaged 27 yards per return on 26 career kickoff attempts and scored two TDs. This speaks well of his ability to deliver on-field athleticism that matches his Combine numbers.
Rushing ability - Watson also has 230 career rushing yards, bolstering his playmaker resume.
Red Flags:
Age - Watson will turn 23 shortly after the NFL draft. He's quite old for a rookie.
Five-year player - Watson is a redshirt senior.
Did not break out as an underclassman - Watson didn't hit the 30% breakout threshold until his fifth season after graduating high school. That's... not great. It's particularly concerning because Watson was playing on a powerhouse team in the FCS. It seems likely that a future NFL star would have been able to emerge years earlier in that environment.
Career yardage share - Watson's 24% yardage share is quite low for a fifth-year senior. This is extra concerning because Watson redshirted in his true freshman year. As a result, he was older than his classmates in all four college seasons.
Underclassman Yards per route run - Watson played two seasons in his first three years after graduating high school, averaging 2.38 YPRR, which is a respectable mark. But Watson played for a very strong FCS program, and his teammates weren't far behind. In 2019 North Dakota State supported three wide receivers with 2.45 YPRR or better on 100+ routes: Phoenix Sproles (2.45), Christian Watson (2.86), and Jimmy Kepouros (2.92). The fact that you've never heard of Sproles or Kepouros is the point. Of course, Watson did have a highly drafted teammate, but it was his quarterback, not a fellow receiver. Trey Lance's 2019 campaign is what propelled him to the third overall pick in the draft; Watson didn't display eye-opening efficiency until two years later.
Intermediate production - Watson produced just 19% of his yards on targets between 10-19 yards downfield. Having produced 51% of his yards on 20+ yard targets and having the frame and athleticism to operate deep in the NFL, his lack of intermediate production isn't a major issue. But he really might spend his rookie year only running go routes.
Outlook:
Watson projects as a deep threat who should also see some screens and handoffs as his team looks to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Schemed touches should help keep him involved, and his deep ball skills should keep him on the field. As Jalen Guyton has proved with his 14.3 career aDOT, 0.94 career YPRR, and 1,025 career routes, the ability to draw even the occasional deep target can be enough to keep a player in a near every-route role, and Watson has the potential to be quite a bit more than Guyton. As one of the biggest pre-draft risers, Watson now has a chance to sneak into the first round, and it would be somewhat shocking if he falls to the third round. With that kind of draft capital, he should get a shot at an immediate starting role. Still, Watson is the type of prospect where it's essential to try to keep the draft cost low in fantasy. We've seen many examples of highly athletic deep threats, such as Chris Conley and Miles Boykin, who have not been able to break through as fantasy-relevant receivers. Watson has major red flags in terms of his early career production and level of competition. It's possible he's the next Terry McLaurin, but it's also possible he's the next Denzel Mims.
Rookie Pick Prospect Grade: 2nd Round
10) Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama
Spoiler!
At a glance:
Tolbert weighed in at 6 foot 1, 194 pounds, and quietly checked the boxes at the Combine. He now looks well-positioned for a third-round selection, which would make him very intriguing as a highly productive four-year player. Tolbert profiles primarily as an outside deep threat, but he should have the ability to mix into the slot.
Statistical Comps:
Tyler Lockett
Torrey Smith
Michael Gallup
Quinton Patton
Justin Hardy
Anthony Miller
Positive Indicators:
Underclassman breakout - Tolbert broke out in 2019 as a redshirt sophomore. His raw stats weren't impressive; in 12 games, he produced just 27 receptions for 521 yards and six TDs. But South Alabama had a very unproductive passing offense that season, and Tolbert's receiving line was good for a 27% yardage share, a 43% TD share, and a 35% dominator rating.
Career yardage share - Tolbert redshirted and then had just 60 receiving yards as a freshman, but once he got going, he had an impressive career. In his 2020 campaign, he went 64-1,086-8 for a 40% yardage share and 44% TD share. He then closed out his career with 82-1,474-8 for a 48% yardage share and 36% TD share. Over four seasons, Tolbert produced an impressive 36% yardage share and 36% dominator rating, which are excellent marks, even for a fifth-year senior.
Dominant final season - As a redshirt senior, Tolbert delivered an extremely impressive 42% dominator rating, his second straight season at 42%. Ideally, Tolbert would have entered the NFL after his third or fourth year since graduating high school. But if a player is going to spend extra time in college, late-career dominance is always preferred.
Final season yards per route run - Tolbert was impressively efficient as a redshirt junior, finishing with 2.80 YPRR. But he took things to another level in 2021. As a redshirt senior, Tolbert averaged 3.16 YPRR. His South Alabama teammates combined for a pitiful 0.96 YPRR.
Versatility - Tolbert operated almost exclusively outside in 2018-2020, but in 2021 he played 34% of his snaps from the slot. His versatility provides him with multiple avenues to see playing time as a rookie.
Downfield ability - In Tolbert's breakout 2019, he was a true deep threat with an aDOT of 17.9, seeing 38% of his targets 20+ yards downfield. He then managed a 42% dominator rating with a 17.1 aDOT in 2020 and led the nation with 39 deep targets. In 2021, his aDOT was down to 14.2, but he still finished fourth in the nation with 37 deep targets.
Tolbert didn't just see downfield targets; he produced on them. 45% of Tolbert's career yards came on 20+ yard targets, tying Treylon Burks and trailing only Christian Watson (51%) and Alec Pierce (54%) among likely Day 1-2 receivers. His NFL role isn't hard to project, provided he has the athleticism to win deep.
Athleticism - Tolbert isn't a particularly strong athlete, but he did what he needed to at the Combine with a 4.49 40, a 123-inch broad jump, and a 36-inch vertical. He probably needs to bulk up slightly from 194 pounds, but he had a solid chance of succeeding as a deep threat.
Hands - Tolbert's hands measured 10 inches, which is a good sign for his ability to translate to the NFL.
Red Flags:
Age - Tolbert is already 23 years old.
Five-year player.
Underclassman Yards per route run - Tolbert's breakout redshirt sophomore season came with subpar efficiency, delivering just 1.93 YPRR. In the two seasons he played within three years of graduating high school, he had just 1.70 YPRR. His final season efficiency is impressive, but he was a fifth-year receiver at a small school. His inability to efficiently best his level of competition until he had an advantage in age and experience is a red flag. This concern showed up for other senior wide receivers like Tre'Quan Smith, Dante Pettis, Andy Isabella, Miles Boykin, Van Jefferson, Bryan Edwards, and Devin Duvernay. However, it's a red flag that Terry McLaurin and Chase Claypool overcame.
Raw speed - Tolbert's 4.49 40 is fine for a 6-foot-1, 194-pound wide receiver, but it doesn't leave a ton of margin for error for a player whose most straightforward path to relevance is running deep routes.
Outlook:
For Tolbert to succeed, he first needs a team to take a chance on him on Day 2. As a Day 3 pick, he looks a little too close to Tylan Wallace or a smaller Antonio Gandy-Golden for comfort. But as a third-round pick, he looks far more interesting. Since 2012, six 4+ year college receivers have been selected in the third round with a 33%+ career yardage share: T.Y. Hilton, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Leonte Carroo, Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, and Michael Gallup. And three of those players, Brown (6), Golladay (5), and Kupp (5), spent more than four years in school. As long as the NFL signs off on Tolbert in Day 2, he profiles as a high upside bet.
It seems to me that mahomes rarely throws passes that could be contested. PM seemed very concerned about turnovers and wanted to avoid tipped balls as the season progressed. I like burks but does it concern you that 63% of his downfield catches were contested?
It seems to me that mahomes rarely throws passes that could be contested. PM seemed very concerned about turnovers and wanted to avoid tipped balls as the season progressed. I like burks but does it concern you that 63% of his downfield catches were contested?
The one reason it doesn't concern me greatly is because I don't think Burks is really a downfield guy, especially not in this offense.
Jameson Williams Yards after catch - It's generally much easier to rack up yards after the catch on short passes and screens than by operating as a deep threat, but Williams averaged 1.44 YAC per route in 2021. That's an impressive mark in any context. The context here is that 72% of Williams' YAC came on targets past the line of scrimmage, and screens made up just 9% of Williams' yardage total. His college after-catch ability is a very promising sign for his potential to be an elite playmaker downfield. Williams will likely see a lot of intermediate and deep targets in the NFL. If he adds YAC in a meaningful way, he will be a big-play machine.
Can we move up to 20 without giving up a 2nd rounder? If so, what would that look like? I could see all the teams after 20 taking a WR. They won’t but any one of them could.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers
21) New England Patriots
22) Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas Raiders)
23) Arizona Cardinals
24) Dallas Cowboys
25) Buffalo Bills
26) Tennessee Titans
27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Green Bay Packers
29) Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco 49ers through Miami Dolphins)
Can we move up to 20 without giving up a 2nd rounder? If so, what would that look like? I could see all the teams after 20 taking a WR. They won’t but any one of them could.
20) Pittsburgh Steelers
21) New England Patriots
22) Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas Raiders)
23) Arizona Cardinals
24) Dallas Cowboys
25) Buffalo Bills
26) Tennessee Titans
27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Green Bay Packers
29) Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco 49ers through Miami Dolphins)
04-01-2022, 09:21 AM
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