2023 First Round Mock 1.0

[kccrow]

1. Indianapolis Colts (t/CHI) - QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
The Colts have some pieces in place offensively to surround a rookie QB with now and so I think this is the year that Ballard gets aggressive. If he doesn't, he could find himself on the way out of town. The Colts move up from 4 to 1 to get their man.
2. Houston Texans - QB Bryce Young, Alabama
The Texans have many issues but it starts with Davis Mills just not being a playmaker at QB. They can keep with a "Patriot Way" type of player by getting Young at QB. He's a bit undersized but he has all of the ability in the world.
3. Arizona Cardinals - ER Will Anderson, Alabama
The Cardinals luck into the Bears trading out and get a standout pass rusher in Anderson that can help their anemic defense.
4. Chicago Bears (t/IND) - OT Paris Johnson, Ohio State
The Bears get draft picks they desperately need to help their roster and put themselves in a solid spot to address the LT issue once and for all. Johnson allows them to move Braxton Jones to the right side to replace Riley Reiff and fill out their line.
5. Seattle Seahawks (f/DEN) - DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
The Seahawks will re-sign Geno Smith, which puts them in an excellent spot to land Jalen Carter given the needs for QB ahead of them (including potential trade-ups). Carter can step in and immediately replace Poona Ford and help enhance their pass rush.
6. Las Vegas Raiders (t/DET, f/LAR) - QB Will Levis, Kentucky
The Raiders are in a difficult spot as they probably won't be able to trade Carr and will just cut him. They need to find their QB but aren't in the best position to go to the top without spending a good amount. I have them moving up one slot with Detroit to keep Atlanta or Carolina from getting in front of them. Levis has a huge arm and insane potential but accuracy and touch can be problems.
7. Detroit Lions (t/LV)- CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
The Lions need help on defense, especially playmakers, and their secondary is a big reason why they finished dead last in the NFL. Gonzalez has easy speed and lateral agility and the size to match up with any receiver on the back end.
8. Atlanta Falcons - ER Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
I think Atlanta will roll with Desmond Ritter in 2023 but are being coy in hopes teams trade in front of them for QBs and push talent down the board to them. I have them helping their bad pass rush with Wilson who has a great motor and amazing length and strength.
9. Carolina Panthers - QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Eventually, the Panthers will stop trying to ride the FA QB carousel and shoot for their own franchise guy. I like Hooker far more than Anthony Richardson and, really, more than most QBs in this class. His age and his injury are the real factors here but you don't need to look beyond a 10-year plan, let's be real about it. He'll play this year, probably by October.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (f/NO) - CB Joey Porter Jr, Penn State
The Eagles will need to replace Bradberry in their secondary and, not only that, Slay is getting up there. Porter can be lock-down at times.
11. Tennessee Titans - OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
The Titans are probably letting go of long-time starter Taylor Lewan for cap reasons this offseason so they need to get a LT that can step in on day 1.
12. Houston Texans (f/CLE) - WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
Part of the Texans' problems on offense outside of Mills being pedestrian has been their lack of weapons. Young is used to having fast WRs and there may not be a faster one in this draft. Hyatt can take the top off and be an instant injection of needed talent for the Texans' offense.
13. New York Jets - OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
I see the Jets being strong players for David Carr and not so much for Aaron Rodgers (cap implications). They keep their 1st and address their never-ending LT problem with Jones.
14. New England Patriots - OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
Bill Belichick is certainly unconventional when it comes to the draft and he certainly has his favorite schools. One thing he always does though is address a need at LT and he's liked Oklahoma prospects of late.
15. Green Bay Packers - DE Tuli Tuipulotu, USC
The Packers are set to lose both starting 5-techs this year in Dean Lowry and Jarran Reed. The Pack has a habit of going defense early and then filling in the offense later. They took Devonte Wyatt in the first last year and I have them seeking out another quality DE early this year with Tuipulotu who is extremely undervalued.
16. Washington Commanders - TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Washington needs more weapons on offense and Mayer is a value in a position of significant need for them.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Drew Sanders, Arkansas
The Steelers are absolutely looking to do two things in this draft, get better at tackling in space at LB and get better in the trenches. Sanders proved what an asset he can be in his move to MLB in his transfer to Arkansas. He's a punishing hitter, an outstanding tackler, and he's a nightmare blitzing. He's a Steeler if I've ever seen one.
18. Detroit Lions - RB Bijon Robinson, Texas
I have the slide for Bijon Robinson stopping here. The Lions have never been shy about taking RBs earlier in the draft and they only have D'Andre Swift on the roster for 2023 as it stands. Robinson can help take some pressure off of Jared Goff being perfect.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DE Myles Murphy, Clemson
I'm convinced Tampa is going to try the Kyle Trask experiment while rebuilding their defense and skill positions. They are set to lose a lot of talent on the defensive front yet again so they get a SDE to play opposite Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.
20. Seattle Seahawks - DE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame
Seattle addressed DL earlier and they do it again as they attempt to fix their pass rush. Foskey is a very good DE in all facets.
21. Los Angeles Chargers - WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
The Chargers will more than likely cut Keenan Allen in the offseason to free up cap space to re-sign guys like Trey Pipkins. Johnston is a high-end WR that will go as high as his 40-time dictates. As of right now, I have him as a middle 1 guy and the Chargers are the type of team that likes big wideouts that can go up and get the football.
22. Baltimore Ravens - QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Honestly, I'm not confident in a deal getting done with Lamar Jackson and I'm guessing he's going to end up on the tag. The Ravens would be wise to move on, in my opinion, so they go with a high-upside player in Richardson in a similar mold to Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson.
23. Minnesota Vikings - CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
The Vikings could be a really easy trade partner for a team looking to move up in this draft given they have a whopping 4 picks and a bunch of needs. They also might acquire more picks by trading away a couple of players, so we'll see. That said, they could opt to stay put and get a quality player in their secondary they desperately need and Ringo is exactly that as a big, fast, physical CB they lack.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Jordan Addison, USC
Jacksonville is a good football team in the making. Their 1st round decision might come down to the best value between WR and CB given they are set to lose Marvin Jones and might need to cut Shaq Griffin for cap space. I think Addison is too good of a potential weapon and value for them to pass up.
25. New York Giants - LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
What the Giants do with Daniel Jones could make this draft interesting. I do expect they'll re-sign him though. They need more weapons and they also could stand to add more talent in the secondary and at LB. Simpson is a quality linebacker that can cover well and go sideline-to-sideline, filling the void at either MLB or WLB for the Giants.
26. Dallas Cowboys - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
The Cowboys lose a lot of talent at WR this offseason and should trade or cut Michael Gallup to help with cap space. Smith-Njigba is a relative unknown right now due to missing so much time due to injury but he can be an Amari Cooper-type talent for the Cowboys.
27. Buffalo Bills - SS Brian Branch, Alabama
The Bills will have to make some key decisions on defense this year but the one spot where they need to get younger is at SS where Jordan Poyer is a free agent. Branch is a tough, do-everything safety that doesn't make many mistakes.
28. Cincinnati Bengals - OG O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida
The Bengals stand to lose some players in the secondary this offseason but Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt probably step into two of the 3 open spots, taking pressure off drafting there right out the gate. I have the Bengals instead opting to get even better at protecting Joe Burrow by addressing left guard with the draft's best interior offensive lineman.
29. New Orleans Saints (f/SF) - DE Lukas VanNess, Iowa
The Saints are in a world of hurt with the salary cap and even more so when it comes to depth. They probably will lose more talent on the defensive line than they lose to free agency just trying to get under the cap. They'll have to address it early and often. I have them going for pass rush early and IDL later on. VanNess is a quality edge with good power, release off the LOS, and speed to close to the QB.
30. Philadelphia Eagles - DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
If there is a player I feel like is severely overvalued in this draft, it's Bresee but he still offers a first-round skill set. I just don't see that skill set as top-10 caliber. That said, the Eagles help to reload their defensive line by taking a chance on the oft-injured Bresee late.
31. Kansas City Chiefs - OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee
The Chiefs will need to make a critical decision on LT Orlando Brown Jr that could determine the fate of their draft efforts, but if KC retains him they most certainly need to make an upgrade at RT over Andrew Wylie who has been overwhelmingly terrible. Wright can help provide some stability on the right side for Mahomes. Wright for right, is that a thing?

[duncan_idaho]

I like mocks where the Colts move up to draft Will Levs a lot more than ones where CJ Stroud lands in the AFC.

Nice look, though.

[Couch-Potato]

Great work! Shoring up the RT spot seems most likely to me at this point as well, but man, Breese has me intrigued if he falls. Thanks for the read!

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Great work! Shoring up the RT spot seems most likely to me at this point as well, but man, Breese has me intrigued if he falls. Thanks for the read!

I just looked at Zierlein's mock that staylor posted after I about shit myself when he said he put Keion White at #9 and he doesn't even have Bresee in the 1st round. I guess I'm not the only one that thinks he falls.

[JPH83]

God Branch to the Bills and Johnson to the Chargers would make me sick.

[O.city]

I'm not sure the Jags take a WR early with having the gambler coming back.

[Hoover]

I think there would be a noticeable change if the Chiefs were able to shore up the RT spot. To be honest it would make OBJ a lot easier to deal with. Its probably the one position that you can really enhance every level of the offense.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by Hoover

I think there would be a noticeable change if the Chiefs were able to shore up the RT spot. To be honest it would make OBJ a lot easier to deal with. Its probably the one position that you can really enhance every level of the offense.

My assumption is we might try and fix in FA. If FA is for needs it's a glaring one. I think this draft is better for DEs than OTs and WRs and you'll get better value there back end of the 1st.

[Direckshun]

Great work on this.

Question:

If the Chiefs extend Brown, do you move off tackle in the 1st?

And if so, who would you pick at 31? I can't help but notice Andre Carter is on the board.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Great work on this.

Question:

If the Chiefs extend Brown, do you move off tackle in the 1st?

And if so, who would you pick at 31? I can't help but notice Andre Carter is on the board.

I wouldn't be mocking Wright if they weren't retaining Brown. I don't see Wright as a LT prospect at all. There's some nice RT prospects in that round 2/3 range so it's not a "must get" at that spot. That said, I'd prefer a guy that was pretty much plug-and-play.

I like Andre Carter but I'm not on him as a 1st rounder. If he's there in 2 I'd do it. He's got some work to do in several facets in my opinion.

If I wasn't looking for a tackle in 1, I'm strongly on board for a DE. I don't know if I'd go for a WR unless a guy like Hyatt fell.

The WR aspect brings me to a "quiet conundrum" I"m having in my head regarding Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs, on tape, is a phenomenal receiving back. My question on him is how fast is he, really? He looks faster than the 4.46 I've seen in a quick search. I saw another number of 4.32 that is reportedly a "most recent" time and I think it's very possible he is that fast. He absolutely plays fast. At 5'11" and 200 pounds, the thought on taking him isn't to play RB but it's to play WR. If he's there at 31, where the Chiefs will absolutely be picking because **** Philly, then he presents a major "what if" scenario for me.

I have similar thoughts regarding Devon Achane if he's around at the bottom of 2. The question on Achane is how tall is he, really? He's listed at 5'9" and you have to wonder if he's that, or if he's 5'8" or 5'7." Much like Gibbs, I wonder if he could be a WR. Achane, now he's listed as a guy that could run in the 4.2s. I don't think he's a 4.2 guy but he just might be a 4.35 guy. Not as much tape on Achane as a receiving option. If he's 5'9" and he runs at least a 4.35, is he an option at WR? Maybe for me but it really depends on who else is sitting there at that point.

[Tribal Warfare]

Dawand Jones and Derick Hall are interesting prospects to consider if Brett goes full John Dorsey concerning measurables. The PFF prospect rankings would be a good gauge to see what Veach likes.

In college Devon Achane's indoor 60 meter time is slightly better than Jamaal and Tyreek's time

[Chris Meck]

Jesus, Wright is a ****ing monster of a man. How is that even possible?

[Couch-Potato]

"In college Devon Achane's indoor 60 meter time is slightly better than Jamaal and Tyreek's time"

Word? Huh? Very, interesting.