Football nfl-forecast.com now up for the 2009 season

**cdcox** · 10-01-2009, 03:47 PM

Just a note inform those of you that are interested that my web site is now updated and active for the 2009 season.

While our current playoff odds are disappointing at around 2% we should be heartened that we have not yet wrapped up a top 5 draft choice (only a 38% chance!). Apparently a statistical analysis of our games indicates that we are playing a little better than what out eyes tell us.

I might start a draft pick watch a little later in the season, but I don't want to start that kind of bad mojo this early in the season.

**Rain Man** · 10-01-2009, 05:44 PM

I'm glad we're still in the hunt.

**Buck** · 10-01-2009, 05:58 PM

No Draft Pick percentages yet?

BWillie · 10-01-2009, 06:42 PM

Seems odd that some teams have over a 90% chance to win the division after 3 games...

**cdcox** · 10-01-2009, 07:05 PM

Buck -- last season I was semi-actively rooting for us to lose to shed us of Herm and Carl and to get a better draft pick. There is not nearly as much to gain by losing this year and I don't want to indulge my dark side. I'll start posting the draft pick status soon enough. In the mean time, people who are really interested in the can run the software and see it for themselves.

BW7 -- One thing to remember is that these projections assume that the teams will play at about the same level as they've played so far. So it assumes for example that Peyton Manning won't get injured. Three games is a pretty small sample to calibrate the team strength, so you are correct that early season projections should be taken with a grain of salt. It would be difficult, but not impossible, to correct for this early season uncertainty. On the other hand, one of the teams is the Colts. They are the best rated team in football according to the ratings I use at advancednflstats.com. They have a two game lead on two of the teams and a 3 game lead on the other. I don't think a 90%+ chance of them winning the division is completely out of line. I'd be less confident about the Saints because they aren't as good and their competition looks better.

**DaFace** · 10-05-2009, 06:39 PM

For what it's worth, this topic kinda sorta came up, so I posted a link to your site on the OM. Not a lot of discussion, but I thought you might be interested in knowing where it pops up.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=85154

**cdcox** · 10-05-2009, 07:15 PM

Well, I just made a post on the mange. We'll see how that goes.

10-01-2009, 03:47 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-568231	nfl-forecast.com now up for the 2009 season Just a note inform those of you that are interested that my web site is now updated and active for the 2009 season. While our current playoff odds are disappointing at around 2% we should be heartened that we have not yet wrapped up a top 5 draft choice (only a 38% chance!). Apparently a statistical analysis of our games indicates that we are playing a little better than what out eyes tell us. I might start a draft pick watch a little later in the season, but I don't want to start that kind of bad mojo this early in the season.
Posts: 46,032

10-01-2009, 05:44 PM	#2
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-662449 VARSITY	I'm glad we're still in the hunt. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,496

10-01-2009, 05:58 PM	#3
Buck Take a Chill Pill Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Carolina Casino cash: $6010295	No Draft Pick percentages yet?
Posts: 44,606

10-01-2009, 06:42 PM	#4
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1448759	Seems odd that some teams have over a 90% chance to win the division after 3 games...
Posts: 52,848

10-01-2009, 07:05 PM	#5
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-568231	Buck -- last season I was semi-actively rooting for us to lose to shed us of Herm and Carl and to get a better draft pick. There is not nearly as much to gain by losing this year and I don't want to indulge my dark side. I'll start posting the draft pick status soon enough. In the mean time, people who are really interested in the can run the software and see it for themselves. BW7 -- One thing to remember is that these projections assume that the teams will play at about the same level as they've played so far. So it assumes for example that Peyton Manning won't get injured. Three games is a pretty small sample to calibrate the team strength, so you are correct that early season projections should be taken with a grain of salt. It would be difficult, but not impossible, to correct for this early season uncertainty. On the other hand, one of the teams is the Colts. They are the best rated team in football according to the ratings I use at advancednflstats.com. They have a two game lead on two of the teams and a 3 game lead on the other. I don't think a 90%+ chance of them winning the division is completely out of line. I'd be less confident about the Saints because they aren't as good and their competition looks better.
Posts: 46,032

10-05-2009, 06:39 PM	#6
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $-1863101	For what it's worth, this topic kinda sorta came up, so I posted a link to your site on the OM. Not a lot of discussion, but I thought you might be interested in knowing where it pops up. http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=85154
Posts: 53,153

10-05-2009, 07:15 PM	#7
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-568231	Well, I just made a post on the mange. We'll see how that goes.
Posts: 46,032