Chiefs Too Bad The Chiefs Are Married to Todd Haley

Boyceofsummer · 12-17-2009, 12:17 PM

http://fwix.com/share/55_c6b76c6022

Too Bad The Chiefs Are Married to Todd Haley

by Matt Conner

Let me be very, very clear from the outset: the Kansas City Chiefs should not make any changes to their head coaching situation for 2010. Now with that said, let me write an entire article that seems to point to the opposite.

My primary thoughts at this time of day are spurred by the ridiculous buzz swirling current NFL head coaching wanna-bes salivating over all kinds of wonderfully desperate situations. The Redskins, Buccaneers, Bills, Bears, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys and more all sit with neon "vacancy" signs up (or pending ones, it seems) and the likes of Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren and hot assistants like Leslie Frazier (Minnesota's defensive coordinator) are all in the spotlight. And that's with a few weeks still left of the regular season.

It's the sort of rumors that fans of losing franchises love to read about, considering there's not much on-field product worth pondering. It's also something Kansas City fans must remember from this time a year ago when "what ifs" floated around Arrowhead like Rocky Mountain cloud formations. But unlike last year, this season's coaching candidates are absolutely off the charts in terms of experience, expertise and sheer reputation. And that's a shame the Chiefs cannot be in on this bunch.

More after the jump:

Star-divide
Of course, the Chiefs won the grand prize last year, when the front office candidates available looked like this year's coaching hires. Scott Pioli was the head of the class, the best in the business, and when he shook hands with Clark Hunt, every KC fan (and NFL fan for that matter) knew there were much better days ahead in the City of Fountains. But the same couldn't be said of Pioli's choice for head coach.

Now, the Chiefs must sit this off-season with Todd Haley while the most beautiful head coaching class in a long time struts their stuff for teams in need. It's the equivalent of being over the salary cap next summer while having to passively watch the upcoming free agent class of 2010 in the NBA, when LeBron, Chris Bosh and others change permanent addresses. When such options are available, one can't help but wonder what it would look like for a Cowher or Shanahan to walk the sidelines of the red and gold.

We've seen unending posts both favoring Todd Haley and slamming the first-year HC. There are valid points to be made on all sides. But we are married. You don't change head coaches that quickly, so we have what we have and the absolute worst move would be to can Haley at this point. He deserves to grow with the job, to see this thing through and fans should understand that. That doesn't mean, however, that we don't look at the current dating scene and wonder what it'd be like to be single again. It's a fine class and even as a non-participant, it should be fun to watch it unfold.

Mr. Laz · 12-17-2009, 12:18 PM

Haley has definitely been disappointing thus far.

Deberg_1990 · 12-17-2009, 12:22 PM

The Chiefs are not married to Haley by any means. I honestly think that if he loses out, hes on extremely thin ice. The team has not improved in any area.

Heres a good read. Haley faces an uphill battle....

http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/1721

Thanks to Jason Lisk for this idea! The premise is that Haley inherited a team that was in the bottom fourth of the league in offense and in the bottom fourth of the league in defense the previous season. Since the magical cut-off point (1970), there have been 13 coaches (excluding partial seasons) who were new hires under these conditions. That’s a pretty select group when you consider all the coaching scenarios in the NFL over the last 40 years.

Obviously, you shouldn’t expect miracles by any of these coaches the following season. Nevertheless, you should expect improvement. I enjoy listening to Jack Harry because he is constantly ragging on one item – which I agree with… that being there is no evidence of improvement in the Chiefs. When you think about it, any new coach should be showing signs of improvement – specifically on a team that was terrible the season before. If not, you have to question whether he is doing a good job.

You really can’t evaluate Haley based on wins and losses. He inherited a dog team and if he gets a couple toothless bites out of them, he’s doing pretty good. But, when comparing him to the other 12 coaches in this group, you can make some assumptions.

What I was interested in was the question of yards gained vs yards allowed. As you know, that’s my bread and butter when evaluating any NFL team or any NFL game. It’s the bottom line. Lots of other things (turnovers, bad calls, penalties, special teams) come and go with the wind, but yardage gained and yardage allowed tells you a lot about a team – especially over the course of a season.

Therefore, when a team is already in the bottom 25% for yards allowed and already in the bottom 25% for yards gained, then they are already at a negative differential. The way to measure the coach is to see whether that negative differential improved the following year or not.

Here are the 13 coaches in chronological order.

Coach Year Team
John North 1973 New Orleans
Walt Michaels 1977 NY Jets
Ray Perkins 1979 NY Giants
Frank Kush 1982 Baltimore
Hugh Campbell 1984 Houston
Dick McPherson 1991 New England
Kevin Gilbride 1997 San Diego
Butch Davis 2001 Cleveland
Steve Mariucci 2003 Detroit
Mike Nolan 2005 San Francisco
Steve Spagnuolo 2009 St. Louis
Eric Mangini 2009 Cleveland
Todd Haley 2009 Kansas City

-

Each of the above coaches inherited a team that was in the bottom 1/4 of the league in both offense and defense. In order to evaluate how they did, I simply took the yardage gained/given up differential from the previous year to their first year. For example…

Kansas City OFF DEF DIFF
2008 308.7 393.2 -84.5
2009 272.4 385.2 -112.8
Total DIFF -28.3

-

The Chiefs, under Haley, are 28.3 yards worse with respect to total yardage offense and defense than they were last season. The question is how does -28.3 rate with respect to the rest of the coaches.

As it turns out, Haley is fourth worst among the 13 coaches on this list. Here they are with the total DIFF listed.

Coach Year Team DIFF
Mike.Nolan 2005 SF -110.0
Ray.Perkins 1979 NYG -63.2
Eric.Mangini 2009 CLE -35.3
Todd.Haley 2009 KC -28.3
Hugh.Campbell 1984 HOU -22.0
John.North 1973 NO -17.9
Kevin.Gilbride 1997 SD +5.6
Steve.Spagnuolo 2009 STL +13.5
Walt.Michaels 1977 NYJ +25.6
Frank.Kush 1982 BAL +27.5
Steve.Mariucci 2003 DET +34.3
Dick.McPherson 1991 NE +36.1
Butch.Davis 2001 CLE +60.5

-

The next question I asked myself was what happened to these coaches. How long did they last with the team? Shown are the same coaches in the same order of futility and the number of years they coached that team.

Coach DIFF Years
Mike Nolan -110.0 3.44
Ray Perkins -63.2 4.00
Eric Mangini -35.3 N/A
Todd Haley -28.3 N/A
Hugh Campbell -22.0 1.88
John North -17.9 2.43
Kevin Gilbride +5.6 1.38
Steve Spagnuolo +13.5 N/A
Walt Michaels +25.6 6.00
Frank Kush +27.5 2.56
Steve Mariucci +34.3 2.68
Dick McPherson +36.1 2.00
Butch Davis +60.5 3.63
AVERAGE 3.00

-

As you can see, it is hard to make anything out their tenure. Naturally, you would have assumed that Nolan and Perkins would have been gone right away. But, it could be that when your team sucks even worse than the previous year, the GM and/or ownership simply assumes the team was in decline – not the fault of the coach. Thus, they were given more time to correct it.

About all I can draw from this is that under these conditions, the average time a coach survived was 3.00 years.

The other thing that is interesting to me about this is that most of these coaches were just sacrificial

. It was the first NFL head coaching job for 11 of the 13 (except for Mariucci and Mangini). Only one of the coaches ever coached another team after this stint (Perkins). Additionally 12 of the 13 ended their careers with a losing record (Mariucci). And, finally 10 of the 13 had only one NFL HC job.

The odds of Haley being “successful” in Kansas City are remote – to say the least. The chances are he will be gone in another year or two; he will leave with a losing record; he will never be an NFL head coach again.

Does that mean he won’t have provided a benefit to the team? Not necessarily. These HCs appear to be transitional coaches. Eventually, a team will turn around, but it will be more because of player moves than due to whoever is leading them.

Finally, here are the same teams and the number of years before they made the playoffs.

Year Team Yrs.
1973 New Orleans 15
1997 San Diego 8
2003 Detroit 7+
1982 Baltimore 6
2005 San Francisco 5+
1977 NY Jets 5
1984 Houston 4
1991 New England 4
1979 NY Giants 3
2001 Cleveland 2
2009 Kansas City N/A
2009 Cleveland N/A
2009 St. Louis N/A
AVG 5.9

-

As you can see, the average length of time before making the playoffs is 5.9 years. That would mean the Chiefs still have 5.1 years of playofflessness left.

It’s worth pointing out the Browns only went two years, but they made the playoffs on a 9-7 record (usually not good enough) and it was another five years before they made it again. Also, the Giants made it on a 9-7 record after three years, but it was another three years before they made it again.

About all we Chiefs fans can hope for is that we fall asleep and wake up in a few years after we’ve had time to rebuild the personnel on the team and after a new coaching staff takes over.

**petegz28** · 12-17-2009, 12:23 PM

No coach with the lack of talent that this team has is going anywhere in his 1st year. Sorry, but that's the fact.

LaChapelle · 12-17-2009, 12:26 PM

The problem is going to be assistant coach turnover. The raiding if the big names get jobs could be massive.

Reerun_KC · 12-17-2009, 12:27 PM

Shanahan or Gruden would be okay....

Coward and Holmgren?

OH HELL NO!!!!

But Haley isnt going anywhere, IF a coach like Herm can take a team to depths never experienced in KC and stay 3 years... (shit there are some posters that wanted him to stay).... Then Haley should get at least 3 years...

**DaneMcCloud** · 12-17-2009, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Shanahan or Gruden would be okay....

Coward and Holmgren?

OH HELL NO!!!!

But Haley isnt going anywhere, IF a coach like Herm can take a team to depths never experienced in KC and stay 3 years... (shit there are some posters that wanted him to stay).... Then Haley should get at least 3 years...

Never experienced?

Do you really think that this abortion of a football team and coaching staff is better than last year's team and coaching?

Really?

Last year's team would have kicked the living shit out of this year's team.

Hands down.

Mojo Jojo · 12-17-2009, 12:33 PM

Hiring a Head Coach was the first real GM decision Pioli had to make...so far not so good.
Welcome to a first time GM learning on the job.

DaWolf · 12-17-2009, 12:38 PM

I will not shed a tear if Haley goes for the sole fact that I have yet to see any improvement in this team. That said, Haley needs to really retool his staff this offseason if he wants to survive, and the Chiefs need to be willing to spend big money to bring in good coordinators...

Reerun_KC · 12-17-2009, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Never experienced?

Do you really think that this abortion of a football team and coaching staff is better than last year's team and coaching?

Really?

Last year's team would have kicked the living shit out of this year's team.

Hands down.

I feel this years team would kick the shit out of last years team...

So lets just leave it at we will agree to disagree on that one...

And the bolded part? How many miles between you and I? That is how much better this year is than last....

Fish · 12-17-2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

I feel this years team would kick the shit out of last years team...

So lets just leave it at we will agree to disagree on that one...

And the bolded part? How many miles between you and I? That is how much better this year is than last....

This boy done lost his damn mind....

Mojo Jojo · 12-17-2009, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

I feel this years team would kick the shit out of last years team...

So lets just leave it at we will agree to disagree on that one...

And the bolded part? How many miles between you and I? That is how much better this year is than last....

Just to be another one to disagree, and to be a pain in the ass...
If the 08 Chiefs played the 09 Chiefs ...it would come down to coaching. As much as this hurts...Herm wins over Todd. Herm had respect of his players...Todd not so much, and one game Herm is the kind of coach that may make that happen. Herm kept his teams close...Todd's team gives up.

Reerun_KC · 12-17-2009, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC Fish

This boy done lost his damn mind....

Yep.... Sure have....

**petegz28** · 12-17-2009, 01:04 PM

The offense is 3pts worse a game this year compared to last
The defense is 3pts better a game this year comparted to last

And I think we have already eclipsed last year's number of QB sacks

Special teams has been the biggest improvment. Herm couldn't get a kicker worth a shit in 3 years.

Reerun_KC · 12-17-2009, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo Jojo

Just to be another one to disagree, and to be a pain in the ass...
If the 08 Chiefs played the 09 Chiefs ...it would come down to coaching. As much as this hurts...Herm wins over Todd. Herm had respect of his players...Todd not so much, and one game Herm is the kind of coach that may make that happen. Herm kept his teams close...Todd's team gives up.

Yet we have seen time and time again where coaching over the last 3 years really hurt time team... Failing with the use of timeouts, poor clock management, wtf play calls, stupid talent evaluation, playing less talented veteran players over younger better players......

Herm had the respect, because he didnt hold anyone accountable. Well expect the place kicker he drafted then cut after the first game...

There are faults on both sides. Herm should of known better, Haley is learning, not sure he is learning from his fails, but he has no where to go but up...

Just my .02$

12-17-2009, 12:17 PM
Boyceofsummer That Doyle, he's a mean-un Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Salina, Kansas Casino cash: $10004900	Too Bad The Chiefs Are Married to Todd Haley http://fwix.com/share/55_c6b76c6022 Too Bad The Chiefs Are Married to Todd Haley by Matt Conner Let me be very, very clear from the outset: the Kansas City Chiefs should not make any changes to their head coaching situation for 2010. Now with that said, let me write an entire article that seems to point to the opposite. My primary thoughts at this time of day are spurred by the ridiculous buzz swirling current NFL head coaching wanna-bes salivating over all kinds of wonderfully desperate situations. The Redskins, Buccaneers, Bills, Bears, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys and more all sit with neon "vacancy" signs up (or pending ones, it seems) and the likes of Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren and hot assistants like Leslie Frazier (Minnesota's defensive coordinator) are all in the spotlight. And that's with a few weeks still left of the regular season. It's the sort of rumors that fans of losing franchises love to read about, considering there's not much on-field product worth pondering. It's also something Kansas City fans must remember from this time a year ago when "what ifs" floated around Arrowhead like Rocky Mountain cloud formations. But unlike last year, this season's coaching candidates are absolutely off the charts in terms of experience, expertise and sheer reputation. And that's a shame the Chiefs cannot be in on this bunch. More after the jump: Star-divide Of course, the Chiefs won the grand prize last year, when the front office candidates available looked like this year's coaching hires. Scott Pioli was the head of the class, the best in the business, and when he shook hands with Clark Hunt, every KC fan (and NFL fan for that matter) knew there were much better days ahead in the City of Fountains. But the same couldn't be said of Pioli's choice for head coach. Now, the Chiefs must sit this off-season with Todd Haley while the most beautiful head coaching class in a long time struts their stuff for teams in need. It's the equivalent of being over the salary cap next summer while having to passively watch the upcoming free agent class of 2010 in the NBA, when LeBron, Chris Bosh and others change permanent addresses. When such options are available, one can't help but wonder what it would look like for a Cowher or Shanahan to walk the sidelines of the red and gold. We've seen unending posts both favoring Todd Haley and slamming the first-year HC. There are valid points to be made on all sides. But we are married. You don't change head coaches that quickly, so we have what we have and the absolute worst move would be to can Haley at this point. He deserves to grow with the job, to see this thing through and fans should understand that. That doesn't mean, however, that we don't look at the current dating scene and wonder what it'd be like to be single again. It's a fine class and even as a non-participant, it should be fun to watch it unfold.
Posts: 970

12-17-2009, 12:18 PM	#2
Mr. Laz Don't Tease Me Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: KS Casino cash: $11047037	Haley has definitely been disappointing thus far. __________________
Posts: 95,626

12-17-2009, 12:22 PM	#3
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $104454	The Chiefs are not married to Haley by any means. I honestly think that if he loses out, hes on extremely thin ice. The team has not improved in any area. Heres a good read. Haley faces an uphill battle.... http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/1721 Thanks to Jason Lisk for this idea! The premise is that Haley inherited a team that was in the bottom fourth of the league in offense and in the bottom fourth of the league in defense the previous season. Since the magical cut-off point (1970), there have been 13 coaches (excluding partial seasons) who were new hires under these conditions. That’s a pretty select group when you consider all the coaching scenarios in the NFL over the last 40 years. Obviously, you shouldn’t expect miracles by any of these coaches the following season. Nevertheless, you should expect improvement. I enjoy listening to Jack Harry because he is constantly ragging on one item – which I agree with… that being there is no evidence of improvement in the Chiefs. When you think about it, any new coach should be showing signs of improvement – specifically on a team that was terrible the season before. If not, you have to question whether he is doing a good job. You really can’t evaluate Haley based on wins and losses. He inherited a dog team and if he gets a couple toothless bites out of them, he’s doing pretty good. But, when comparing him to the other 12 coaches in this group, you can make some assumptions. What I was interested in was the question of yards gained vs yards allowed. As you know, that’s my bread and butter when evaluating any NFL team or any NFL game. It’s the bottom line. Lots of other things (turnovers, bad calls, penalties, special teams) come and go with the wind, but yardage gained and yardage allowed tells you a lot about a team – especially over the course of a season. Therefore, when a team is already in the bottom 25% for yards allowed and already in the bottom 25% for yards gained, then they are already at a negative differential. The way to measure the coach is to see whether that negative differential improved the following year or not. Here are the 13 coaches in chronological order. Coach Year Team John North 1973 New Orleans Walt Michaels 1977 NY Jets Ray Perkins 1979 NY Giants Frank Kush 1982 Baltimore Hugh Campbell 1984 Houston Dick McPherson 1991 New England Kevin Gilbride 1997 San Diego Butch Davis 2001 Cleveland Steve Mariucci 2003 Detroit Mike Nolan 2005 San Francisco Steve Spagnuolo 2009 St. Louis Eric Mangini 2009 Cleveland Todd Haley 2009 Kansas City - Each of the above coaches inherited a team that was in the bottom 1/4 of the league in both offense and defense. In order to evaluate how they did, I simply took the yardage gained/given up differential from the previous year to their first year. For example… Kansas City OFF DEF DIFF 2008 308.7 393.2 -84.5 2009 272.4 385.2 -112.8 Total DIFF -28.3 - The Chiefs, under Haley, are 28.3 yards worse with respect to total yardage offense and defense than they were last season. The question is how does -28.3 rate with respect to the rest of the coaches. As it turns out, Haley is fourth worst among the 13 coaches on this list. Here they are with the total DIFF listed. Coach Year Team DIFF Mike.Nolan 2005 SF -110.0 Ray.Perkins 1979 NYG -63.2 Eric.Mangini 2009 CLE -35.3 Todd.Haley 2009 KC -28.3 Hugh.Campbell 1984 HOU -22.0 John.North 1973 NO -17.9 Kevin.Gilbride 1997 SD +5.6 Steve.Spagnuolo 2009 STL +13.5 Walt.Michaels 1977 NYJ +25.6 Frank.Kush 1982 BAL +27.5 Steve.Mariucci 2003 DET +34.3 Dick.McPherson 1991 NE +36.1 Butch.Davis 2001 CLE +60.5 - The next question I asked myself was what happened to these coaches. How long did they last with the team? Shown are the same coaches in the same order of futility and the number of years they coached that team. Coach DIFF Years Mike Nolan -110.0 3.44 Ray Perkins -63.2 4.00 Eric Mangini -35.3 N/A Todd Haley -28.3 N/A Hugh Campbell -22.0 1.88 John North -17.9 2.43 Kevin Gilbride +5.6 1.38 Steve Spagnuolo +13.5 N/A Walt Michaels +25.6 6.00 Frank Kush +27.5 2.56 Steve Mariucci +34.3 2.68 Dick McPherson +36.1 2.00 Butch Davis +60.5 3.63 AVERAGE 3.00 - As you can see, it is hard to make anything out their tenure. Naturally, you would have assumed that Nolan and Perkins would have been gone right away. But, it could be that when your team sucks even worse than the previous year, the GM and/or ownership simply assumes the team was in decline – not the fault of the coach. Thus, they were given more time to correct it. About all I can draw from this is that under these conditions, the average time a coach survived was 3.00 years. The other thing that is interesting to me about this is that most of these coaches were just sacrificial . It was the first NFL head coaching job for 11 of the 13 (except for Mariucci and Mangini). Only one of the coaches ever coached another team after this stint (Perkins). Additionally 12 of the 13 ended their careers with a losing record (Mariucci). And, finally 10 of the 13 had only one NFL HC job. The odds of Haley being “successful” in Kansas City are remote – to say the least. The chances are he will be gone in another year or two; he will leave with a losing record; he will never be an NFL head coach again. Does that mean he won’t have provided a benefit to the team? Not necessarily. These HCs appear to be transitional coaches. Eventually, a team will turn around, but it will be more because of player moves than due to whoever is leading them. Finally, here are the same teams and the number of years before they made the playoffs. Year Team Yrs. 1973 New Orleans 15 1997 San Diego 8 2003 Detroit 7+ 1982 Baltimore 6 2005 San Francisco 5+ 1977 NY Jets 5 1984 Houston 4 1991 New England 4 1979 NY Giants 3 2001 Cleveland 2 2009 Kansas City N/A 2009 Cleveland N/A 2009 St. Louis N/A AVG 5.9 - As you can see, the average length of time before making the playoffs is 5.9 years. That would mean the Chiefs still have 5.1 years of playofflessness left. It’s worth pointing out the Browns only went two years, but they made the playoffs on a 9-7 record (usually not good enough) and it was another five years before they made it again. Also, the Giants made it on a 9-7 record after three years, but it was another three years before they made it again. About all we Chiefs fans can hope for is that we fall asleep and wake up in a few years after we’ve had time to rebuild the personnel on the team and after a new coaching staff takes over.
Posts: 68,677

12-17-2009, 12:23 PM	#4
petegz28 Supporter Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Olathe, Ks Casino cash: $-1105873	No coach with the lack of talent that this team has is going anywhere in his 1st year. Sorry, but that's the fact.
Posts: 132,504

12-17-2009, 12:26 PM	#5
LaChapelle Banned Join Date: Mar 2009 Casino cash: $10004900	The problem is going to be assistant coach turnover. The raiding if the big names get jobs could be massive.
Posts: 8,588

12-17-2009, 12:27 PM	#6
Reerun_KC Banned Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $7231160	Shanahan or Gruden would be okay.... Coward and Holmgren? OH HELL NO!!!! But Haley isnt going anywhere, IF a coach like Herm can take a team to depths never experienced in KC and stay 3 years... (shit there are some posters that wanted him to stay).... Then Haley should get at least 3 years...
Posts: 1,529

12-17-2009, 12:33 PM	#8
Mojo Jojo Veteran Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Johnson County Casino cash: $10013802	Hiring a Head Coach was the first real GM decision Pioli had to make...so far not so good. Welcome to a first time GM learning on the job.
Posts: 3,341

12-17-2009, 12:38 PM	#9
DaWolf Cry havoc... Join Date: Aug 2000 Casino cash: $10007725	I will not shed a tear if Haley goes for the sole fact that I have yet to see any improvement in this team. That said, Haley needs to really retool his staff this offseason if he wants to survive, and the Chiefs need to be willing to spend big money to bring in good coordinators...
Posts: 6,798

12-17-2009, 01:04 PM	#14
petegz28 Supporter Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Olathe, Ks Casino cash: $-1105873	The offense is 3pts worse a game this year compared to last The defense is 3pts better a game this year comparted to last And I think we have already eclipsed last year's number of QB sacks Special teams has been the biggest improvment. Herm couldn't get a kicker worth a shit in 3 years.
Posts: 132,504