Shouldn't Safeties Be Worth More?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Don't be stupid and irrational. They are independent. By your logic, a sack on 3rd down that forces the same punt from the same spot a safety does, should also be worth 1.8 points. And that's absurd.

It's not the spot from the punt, it's the starting average field position of the offense.

Teams that have a first down on the 40 score, on average, 1.8 points per possession.

If a team averages starting field possession on the 40, they will score, on average, 1.8 points on that possession. Sometimes they will score seven, sometimes they will score three, and often no points at all. But on average, they score that many points.

Thus, if you get the ball back on average at the 40 yard line, you can expect to score 1.8 points. Add that to the two points you've already scored, and you get 3.8 points.

You don't score 3.8 points with each safety, but on average, you will.