Nightfyre's Initial Offseason Dream Plan

[Nightfyre]

I need to qualify this by stating: I am only scratching the surface of prospect evaluation and so my draft analysis will be weak - as in, past the fourth round I have watched very little of these players. Additionally, trading Alex Smith is an immediate non-starter for some people. This is my dream offseason, so I can trade him if I want to.


All figures are in '000s


Transactions:
Justin Houston - Re-sign : 2015 Cap Gain of 9,500
6 Years, 93,000 Extension, 18,000 signing bonus, first three years salary guaranteed (46,500 total guarantees)
Year Salary/SBon/Cap
2015 6,500/3,000/9,500 (fully gty’d)
2016 9,500/3,000/12,500 (fully gty’d)
2017 12,500/3,000/15,500 (fully gty'd)
2018 12,500/3,000/15,500
2019 15,500/3,000/18,500
2020 18,500/3,000/21,500


Rodney Hudson - Re-sign : 2015 Cap Gain of 3,000
6 years, 36,000 extension, 12,000 signing bonus, 7,000 salary guaranteed (the Jason Kelce deal)
Year Salary/SBon/Cap
2015 1,000/2,000/3,000
2016 3,000/2,000/5,000
2017 3,000/2,000/5,000
2018 3,000/2,000/5,000
2019 6,000/2,000/8,000
2020 8,000/2,000/10,000


Kevin Vickerson
3 years, 6,000 extension, 1,500 signing bonus.
Year Salary/SBon/Cap
2015 1,500/500/2,000
2016 1,500/500/2,000
2017 1,500/500/2,000


Kurt Coleman
Resign 1 year, 745 extension


Joe McKnight
Resign 1 year, 730 extension


Alex Smith - Trade : 2015 Cap Savings of 1,200
I think we can play the Rams and Bills against each other and get a 2nd out of Alex Smith. Maybe that is a rosy assumption, but his contract is significantly more friendly for them because they can get out of it in 2017 with 0 dead money and comes at a significantly lower cap hit because we ate the signing bonus.

Dwayne Bowe - Restructure - 2015 Cap Savings of 5,000
(1 Year extension, 4,000 base salary converted to bonus and salary cuts of 1,750 (2015), 4,750 (2016) and 4,750 (2017)). Bowe does this in order to get two solid guaranteed years or faces being traded to a miserable franchise like the Browns.
Year Salary/SBon/Cap Hit
2015 5,000/4,000/9,000 (All gty’d)
2016 5,000/4,000/9,000 (All gty’d)
2017 5,000/4,000/9,000 (Cap savings if cut: 4,000)
2018 5,000/1,000/6,000 (Cap savings if cut: 5,000)


Tamba Hali - Extend/Restructure - 2015 Cap Savings of 8,298M
(2 year, 11,000 extension - convert 5,750 in salary and 2,250 roster/workout bonus to 8,000 signing bonus)
Year Salary/SBon/Cap Hit
2015 1,000/2,667/3,667
2016 1,000/2,667/3,667
2017 1,000/2,667/3,667


Derrick Johnson - Extend/Restructure - 2015 Cap Savings 2,750M
(2 year extension, convert all but 1,000 in salary to signing bonus)
Year Salary/SBon/RBon/Cap Hit
2015 1,000/1,500/0000/2,500 (Fully guaranteed)
2016 1,000/1,500/2,000/4,500 (Cap savings if cut: 1,500)
2017 1,000/1,500/2,000/4,500 (Cap savings if cut: 3,000)


Sean Smith - Extend/Restructure - 2015 Cap Savings 4,350M
(3 year extension totaling 32,000 over four years, 10.6 gty'd; convert 4,500 in 2015 salary and roster bonus to signing bonus plus 5,100 in additional signing bonus)
Year Salary/SBon/RBon/Cap Hit
2015 1,000/2,400/0000/3,400 (Fully Gty’d)
2016 7,133/2,400/0000/9,533 (Cap Savings if cut: 2,333)
2017 5,133/2,400/2,000/9,533 (Cap savings if cut: 4,733)
2018 5,133/2,400/2,000/9,533 (Cap savings if cut: 7,133)


Mike Devito - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings: 4,000
AJ Jenkins - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings: 1,337
Chase Daniel - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings: 3,800
Donnie Avery - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings 3,550
Joe Mays - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings: 3,000
Anthony Fasano - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings: 1,975
Frank Zombo - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings: 770
Donald Stephenson - Cut - 2015 Cap Savings: 685
Eric Berry - NFI/Settlement - 2015 Cap Savings 5,455

I think for Berry, we pay 0% of his contract salary and start a foundation for his treatment, to which the Chiefs contribute 5,500. This removes the salary cap component and gives us a tax deduction in the process.

RFAs/ERFAs
All current RFAs/ERFAs will be brought back at minimum salaries to compete for jobs in camp.


Summary of expected changes:

+1,200 Trade Alex Smith
+5,000 Restructure Dwayne Bowe
+8,298 Restructure Tamba Hali
+2,750 Restructure Derrick Johnson
+4,000 Cut Mike Devito
+1,337 Cut AJ Jenkins
+3,800 Cut/Trade Chase Daniel
+3,550 Cut Donnie Avery
+3,000 Cut Joe Mays
+1,975 Cut Anthony Fasano
+770 Cut Frank Zombo
+685 Cut Donald Stephenson
+5,455 NFI Eric Berry
+4,350 Extend Sean Smith

46,170 Total Savings

-9,500 Resign Justin Houston
-3,000 Resign Rodney Hudson
-2,000 Resign Kevin Vickerson
-745 Resign Kurt Coleman
-730 Resign Joe McKnight

15,975 Total Cost of Extensions

2015 Salary Cap: 140,200
Plus 2014 Carryforward: 1,102
Active Contracts: 142,433
Dead Money: 5,357
Current Cap Position: (6,488)
Plus: Total Savings: 46,170
Minus: Cost of Extensions: 15,975
Minus Rookie Contract Pool: 6,500

Net Cap Space: 17,207


Now we can talk new acquisitions:
First position that must be addressed is QB. I traded Alex Smith in order to provide myself salary cap flexibility in 2016 and beyond. So in order to address the QB position in 2015, we make the following acquisitions:

Sign Robert Griffin III after his option is not exercised by the Redskins
3 years, 9,000 with 3,000 signing bonus and 4,000 in total guarantees
Year Salary/SBon/Cap
2015 1,000/1,000/2,000
2016 2,000/1,000/3,000
2017 3,000/1,000/4,000

Trade a 3rd round pick for Nick Foles - 2015 Cap Gain of 816

This gives us two options to compete for the starting position at QB for a cap cost of 2,816 in 2015. Both of these guys have the mobility required to run the exact offense we run now. Both of these guys can run the scripted play calls we run now. The bonus is that these guys can put the ball downfield, making safeties play honest, in order to open things up underneath for the short and intermediate game. I would look for a bounce back from a change in scenery for both of these guys. Foles is in a disfunctional situation in Philly and RGIII is in a horribly disfunctional situation in Washington. Think of these moves as an attempt to capture Steve Young moving from the Bucs to the 9ers rather than the mediocre flow of backups and has-beens into KC. If neither of these guys workout, we are set up for stronger success in 2016 than we would have been with Alex Smith's contract simply because we will be more flexible and have a stronger/deeper roster. That, in turn, means we can focus more resources on obtaining a QB in the 2016 draft. Hopefully that class is stronger than this one.


Other outside free agents:

Mike Iupati, LG (Borrowing a page from kccrow here on figures)
6 year, 48,000 contract, 12,000 signing bonus, 24,000 total guaranteed
Realistically, this probably becomes a 5/36 deal with a decision to extend or cut in 2020.
Year Salary/SBon/Cap
2015 2,000/2,000/4,000 (Fully gty'd)
2016 4,000/2,000/6,000 (Fully gty'd)
2017 6,000/2,000/8,000 (Fully gty'd)
2018 8,000/2,000/10,000
2019 10,000/2,000/12,000
2020 12,000/2,000/14,000


Jordan Cameron, TE
5 year, 30,000 contract, 12,000 signing bonus, 17,000 total guaranteed
Year Salary/SBon/Cap
2015 2,000/2,000/4,000 (Fully gty'd)
2016 3,000/2,000/5,000 (Fully gty'd)
2017 4,000/2,000/6,000
2018 5,000/2,000/7,000
2019 6,000/2,000/8,000

Terrance Knighton, NT
4 year, 28,000 contract, 8,000 signing bonus, 11,500 fully gty'd
Year Salary/SBon/Cap
2015 3,500/2,000/5,500 (Fully gty'd)
2016 4,500/2,000/6,500
2017 5,500/2,000/7,500
2018 6,500/2,000/8,500

Cap Space: 17,207
Less: Free agent Cap gain: 16,316
Net Cap Space: 891
(I anticipate it will be higher once reduced to the highest 51 salaries.)


NFL Draft

1.18 Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
Kevin White fits this offense to a tee. He has size, speed, acceleration, hands and runs great routes. The only question is whether or not he lasts to 18.

2.9 (via Rams) Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
I have a feeling McKinney may wind up going in the first round after the combine, but right now his status probably floats between the first and the second depending on how folks like Perryman and Kendricks. McKinney always seems to be around the ball, sheds blocks well, and has some athleticism.

2.17 Ifo Ekpre Olomu, DB, Oregon
Ekpre Olomu may not last this long, but then maybe he will due to his knee injury. Rather than punching him in as a nickel CB, I think he could be a great free safety, who moves to corner in nickel packages. He is an excellent tackler and has great cover skills. He plays the ball and the run well.

3.Comp Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Another player who uses excellent route running and acceleration to create separation.

4.19 Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina
This fella played LT at South Carolina this year. He features good athleticism for a man of his size. (6'8", 348) I think you could work on his kick slide and have him drop weight to become a tackle project. If not, he becomes a 340 pound guard with the capability to pull. A project rather than an immediate impact player.

5.18 Josh Shaw, DB, USC
Shaw probably goes in the first two rounds of this years draft if he plays well (and doesn't get suspended for jumping off a three floor balcony and making up a story about it). Character concerns (re: domestic situation?) drop him here.

5.Comp Taiwan Jones, ILB, Michigan State
I read that Jones has a place as a two-down thumper type who can immediately contribute to ST. Haven't really watched him.

5.Comp Tyeler Davison, NT, Fresno St.
Another player I have only read about, but he sounds like a high upside developmental prospect. You draft him in the hopes that he puts on weight and fulfills his potential as a nose-tackle. If he does, he may allow for a solid NT rotation that allows Poe to move to 5-tech. That's a lot of beef.

6.17 Leterrius Walton, DE, Central Michigan
Another player I have only read about, but he sounds like a high upside developmental prospect. You make this selection because Walton has the potential with better coaching and more experience, to eventually start. If that falls through, maybe he becomes the guy that allows you to let Vance Walker go at the conclusion of his contract.

7.16 Robert Myers, OG, Tennessee St.
I read that this guy had a lot of upside, but haven't really had a chance to watch.

7.Comp Kyle Emanuel, OLB, North Dakota State
Emanuel feasted on FCS competition and it made it really hard to evaluate. He plays overly downhill and can lose contain from time to time, but that is coachable. That said, he has pretty surprising agility for a guy his size and is worth a flyer here.

QB: Foles/Griffin/Murray
HB: Charles/Davis/Thomas/Charcandrick
FB: Sherman
WR: Bowe/White/Wilson/Dorsett/Rogers
LT: Fisher/Robinson
LG: Iupati/Duvernay-Tardif/Myers
C: Hudson/Kush
RG: Fulton/Duvernay-Tardif/Myers
RT: Allen/Robinson
TE: Kelce/Cameron/Harris

NT: Poe/Knighton/Davison
DE: Bailey/Vickerson/Walker/Howard/Catapano/Walton
OLB: Houston/Ford/Hali/Emanuel
ILB: Johnson/McKinney/Johnson/Jones
CB: Smith/Gaines/Shaw/Fleming/Cooper
S: Abdullah/Olomu/Coleman/Commings

K: Santos
P: Colquitt