Football Your opinion on offensive substitutions and strategy

**Rain Man** · 12-01-2021, 02:21 PM

Defensive substitutions on down and distance are relatively straightforward to consider because they're usually reactive. However, offensive substitutions are a bit more nuanced because they can often telegraph intent.

I remember back in some previous coaching era that we'd get annoyed at certain offensive substitutions because they always telegraphed exactly what the play was going to be. I don't remember the specific people, but it was something like, "Every time McCluster steps onto the field we (and the defense) know that it's going to be a pass to McCluster in the flat."

So the question arises for offensive substitutions. How often can you run the type of play that the personnel are optimized for before the defense recognizes the pattern and neutralizes the optimization of personnel? And how often do you run plays where the personnel aren't optimized just to fool the defense?

So let's set a hypothetical example. It's 3rd and 2. We employ a three-TE set with Michael Burton in the backfield. The personnel are optimized for a power run. What percent of the time do you follow through with the power run, and what percent of the time do you throw to one of the TEs or to Tyreek who's standing out wide?

I'm oversimplifying it, so for poll purposes let's assume that we have two options:

1. Run plays that are optimized to the personnel that you just put onto the field, knowing that the defense might key to those plays.

2. Run plays that are not optimized to those personnel (e.g., sending the third TE out on an intermediate route), under the theory that catching the defense by surprise lends a great advantage.

Poll coming soon. Maybe. Or maybe I'll do something else.

View Poll Results: You should do this.
More than 90 percent of plays are suited to the players on the field. Optimize talent.	1	7.69%
61 to 90 percent of plays are suited to the players on the field. Optimize talent with some surprises.	8	61.54%
40 to 60 percent of plays are suited to the players on the field. Make it random.	1	7.69%
10 to 39 percent of plays are suited to the players on the field. Keep the defense off balance.	2	15.38%
Less than 10 percent of plays are suited to the players on the field. It's all about the surprise at the NFL level.	0	0%
I don't believe in having a playbook. Just get out there and run.	1	7.69%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

12-01-2021, 02:21 PM	Topic Starter
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $1838491 VARSITY	Your opinion on offensive substitutions and strategy Defensive substitutions on down and distance are relatively straightforward to consider because they're usually reactive. However, offensive substitutions are a bit more nuanced because they can often telegraph intent. I remember back in some previous coaching era that we'd get annoyed at certain offensive substitutions because they always telegraphed exactly what the play was going to be. I don't remember the specific people, but it was something like, "Every time McCluster steps onto the field we (and the defense) know that it's going to be a pass to McCluster in the flat." So the question arises for offensive substitutions. How often can you run the type of play that the personnel are optimized for before the defense recognizes the pattern and neutralizes the optimization of personnel? And how often do you run plays where the personnel aren't optimized just to fool the defense? So let's set a hypothetical example. It's 3rd and 2. We employ a three-TE set with Michael Burton in the backfield. The personnel are optimized for a power run. What percent of the time do you follow through with the power run, and what percent of the time do you throw to one of the TEs or to Tyreek who's standing out wide? I'm oversimplifying it, so for poll purposes let's assume that we have two options: 1. Run plays that are optimized to the personnel that you just put onto the field, knowing that the defense might key to those plays. 2. Run plays that are not optimized to those personnel (e.g., sending the third TE out on an intermediate route), under the theory that catching the defense by surprise lends a great advantage. Poll coming soon. Maybe. Or maybe I'll do something else.
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