Chiefs getting screwed by coin flips?

shaneo69 · 01-11-2008, 11:40 PM

from gbnreport.com...

Oakland and Atlanta will flip for the 3rd and 4th picks. If Atlanta wins, the Falcons will pick 3rd, the Raiders 4th, while Kansas City will have the 5th pick. If Oakland wins the initial coin flip the Raiders will have the 3rd pick and Atlanta will then flip with Kansas City for the 4th and 5th picks.

Sounds simple enough so far. It occurred to us, though, that it would have been even simpler if the NFL had simply had Atlanta pick a number out of a hat, either a 3, 4, or 5. If Atlanta picks the three, they get the 3rd pick, Oakland would pick fourth and KC fifth. On the other hand, if the Falcons drew the 4, Oakland would pick third, Atlanta 4th and the Chiefs 5th. And of course if Atlanta drew the 5, Oakland would pick 3rd, Kansas City 4th and the Falcons 5th. In the end, though, we figured what does it matter, the odds of each team getting one of the three respective picks would be the same no matter which method was used.

Being a semi-retired statistician with an incurious mind, though, we worked the actual odds just to be sure. And here’s the kicker: they aren’t the same! Logic would dictate that since Atlanta has no competitive advantage over the other two teams in the deal, the Falcons odds of getting each of the three picks should be one in three or 33%. With the double flip method, though, the Falcons odds of getting the 3rd pick are actually 50%, while their odds of getting the 4th or 5th picks are each 25%. At the same time, Oakland’s odds of getting the third pick are 66% using the number out of the hat method, which again makes sense as they have the tie-breaker over one of the other teams in the mix (Kansas City), but only 50% using the double coin flips. Meanwhile, Kansas City has only a 25% chance of getting the 4th pick, and by extension a 75% of getting the 5th pick, using the NFL’s announced method, whereas the Chiefs would have a 33% of getting the 4th pick with the number in the hat scenario.

01-11-2008, 11:40 PM	Topic Starter
shaneo69 Smug Weasel Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Bleachers at Busch Casino cash: $10004900	Chiefs getting screwed by coin flips? from gbnreport.com... Oakland and Atlanta will flip for the 3rd and 4th picks. If Atlanta wins, the Falcons will pick 3rd, the Raiders 4th, while Kansas City will have the 5th pick. If Oakland wins the initial coin flip the Raiders will have the 3rd pick and Atlanta will then flip with Kansas City for the 4th and 5th picks. Sounds simple enough so far. It occurred to us, though, that it would have been even simpler if the NFL had simply had Atlanta pick a number out of a hat, either a 3, 4, or 5. If Atlanta picks the three, they get the 3rd pick, Oakland would pick fourth and KC fifth. On the other hand, if the Falcons drew the 4, Oakland would pick third, Atlanta 4th and the Chiefs 5th. And of course if Atlanta drew the 5, Oakland would pick 3rd, Kansas City 4th and the Falcons 5th. In the end, though, we figured what does it matter, the odds of each team getting one of the three respective picks would be the same no matter which method was used. Being a semi-retired statistician with an incurious mind, though, we worked the actual odds just to be sure. And here’s the kicker: they aren’t the same! Logic would dictate that since Atlanta has no competitive advantage over the other two teams in the deal, the Falcons odds of getting each of the three picks should be one in three or 33%. With the double flip method, though, the Falcons odds of getting the 3rd pick are actually 50%, while their odds of getting the 4th or 5th picks are each 25%. At the same time, Oakland’s odds of getting the third pick are 66% using the number out of the hat method, which again makes sense as they have the tie-breaker over one of the other teams in the mix (Kansas City), but only 50% using the double coin flips. Meanwhile, Kansas City has only a 25% chance of getting the 4th pick, and by extension a 75% of getting the 5th pick, using the NFL’s announced method, whereas the Chiefs would have a 33% of getting the 4th pick with the number in the hat scenario.
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