An analysis of franchise momentum: The Chiefs' Dow Jones Average.

[Rain Man]

As an update, our stock index now stands at -21.43, which is the second-lowest season-ending stock index in Chiefs history. (The low season-ending point was -23.35 as we ended the 1988 season.) Interestingly, if we had lost the final game against the Broncos, our index would have been -23.43.

As noted before, the low point of all time was Week 4 of 1989 when our index dropped to -24.41 following a 1-3 start. If we lose our first four games next year we'll drop below this mark.


I looked at another variable that I'll call hope. That variable is the change registered over the course of one season. Whereas the index captures total happiness, the Hope variable covers the change in happiness over the course of a year.

Not surprisingly, the best years are the championship years. The Hope variable was a +13.99 in 1969, indicating a very bullish outlook. The next two hope jumps were in 1962 (+11.66) and 1993 (+9.84). On the contrary, the years when hope dropped most dramatically were 2008 (-11.39), 1977 (-10.87), and 2007 (-9.30). This year was a -4.83, which is bad but not as bad as other years.

I think based on this we should call the Herm era the Era of Lost Hope.