LNBS: The Numerology of Winning Seasons and a Hypothetical Prediction

[Discuss Thrower]

Three things are at play here.

1) My circadian rhythm is all messed up from working at a bar one night a week. So I cannot sleep.

2) I practiced a lot on Excel for a class I didn't even need. Blah. But I wanted to simulate being productive with data so I decided to make a redundant list of wins and losses.

3) I've been fooling around on some dude's game by game predictor for the 2013 season and have been thinking of KC's likely record this year.

So I pulled data from every winning season since 1980 for the Chiefs from pro-football reference.com and put them into a spreadsheet where I've made splits with the team's records in the following categories: Record at the Bye Week (if applicable), record through the first and last eight games of the season, longest win streak of the season and which week said streak begins and ends along with home and away splits and playoff records.

Results: (For fans older than I, a lot of what I have to say here will be pretty well known to you. Consider this a "gift" for all these new 49er transplants on the board and for other posters who aren't in the know of what goes down at the Truman Sports Complex)

In the last sixteen winning season, the Chiefs have an average record of 10-6 (not surprising). They are generally 4-2 at the bye week (didn't know there were two bye weeks in 1993) with an average .655% at that point. KC has a 5-3 record for both halves on the season in winning years.

Kansas City generally wins four games in a row in each of their winning seasons, and have strung together additional two or three game streak in a couple of seasons with the longest streak at nine from the 2003 season. Notable in this regard is the 1995 season when the Chiefs had a four game winning streak after an opening day loss, won three in a row in the early-middle and ended the campaign with six in a row. KC's longest winning streak of any given season generally begins around the seventh week and ends either in the tenth or eleventh.

Thanks to the Martyball era, KC's homefield advantage is good for six wins in a good regular season but not so much in the postseason (2-4). Going undefeated at home has proven to be a curse for the Red and Yellow: they've lost in the opening round of the playoffs at Arrowhead each time they've stayed a perfect 8-0 on their own turf (and one 7-1 bid; thanks Matt).

I was kind of surprised to see their traveling exploits evened out at a 4-4 mean record, though the 1990, 1995, 1997 and 2003 seasons make up for the six other seasons where the Chiefs only won three road contests. The record in the post season is much worse given the number of one-and-done extra-game appearances (death to Miami!).


What I Think This All Means (Assuming no injuries or major roster shakeups before week 1):

Forgive anything that will sound Maddenesque in my the following commentary, and this thought comes from the idea the current team has more in common with the 2011 Chiefs (you know.. with wins from Cassel, Tyler FREAKING Palko and Orton and the near-total absence of Jamaal) versus the 2012 Chiefs and therefore more likely to win games, but if these trends continue then Kansas City will not control their own destiny if they are worse than 7-2 at the bye week and cannot play above .500% football after that point.

According to the snap prediction made here and with most NFC games left unpredicted, KC finishes 10-6 and seventh in the AFC behind the 12-4 Steelers, 11-5 Patriots, 10-6 Texans, 10-6 Broncos (eat a cock KnowMo et. al.) and beat out in the wild card by 12-4 (JFC) Ravens and 11-5 Bengals. The Chiefs are perched up at the no. 2 spot in the West with the Raiders behind at 4-12 (How's my ass taste R8ers?) and the Chargers Clowning for Clowney at 3-13 (Sorry Buck.)

This 10-6 record follows the averages I've listed above to a creepy degree in that they play to their average win / loss percentage by the bye week at .667% and are exactly 5-3 in both halves of the season with their longest winning streak at four games coming in a week earlier than average in week six with a home win against the Raiders.

I didn't let my usual pessimism bleed through with this shortened simulation of 2013 (I've been doing the entire season week by week and I generally put the Chiefs at 9-7 or worse depending on how the rest of the league "does" on any given week) and figured the Chiefs will shake off some of their snakebitten trends with a road wins at Jacksonville and Buffalo and home wins against the Browns and Raiders. In typical KC fashion they drop a game they shouldn't have at Tennessee (IMO) and win one they had no business winning in downing the Texans. Again, the Chiefs play to an established mean with six wins at home and play dead even on the road and dead even in the division.

What I Think is Wrong With All of This:

It's independent of any real team strength versus team weakness standpoint as well as assuming Alex Smith plays to the "average" level in a winning season set by the likes of DeBerg, Krieg, Montana, BONO, Grbacannon, Green and (gag me) Cassel. Also the fact this team plays like one that can win is a big supposition as well in that my data is coming from a limited dataset. If I had more time, energy and intelligence I'd look back at seasons where the Chiefs had a 6+ wins in a season and go from there to make guesses but that's not what I've done now have I? Is that okay with you, SNR? Or you cdcox? You weep for the idea of a 1st round drafted franchise QB and you curse the West Coast Offense. You have that luxury... and the luxury of knowing that Hootie's banning, while necessary, probably saved the forum from a lawsuit...

Uhhh.. where was I?

Anyway, my simulation also rides on the fact that I think in the NFC the Packers roll to a 13+ win season, and some combination of Dallas, Atlanta, San Francisco + Seattle, Detroit, Washington, the Giants and maybe the Panthers (???!!!) make the big dance and that the Jets, Browns, Bills and Jaguars suck complete ass and that teams like Miami and Indy underachieve in the AFC.

Beyond that, this prognostication assumes this team is capable of playing like it did in the last two minutes of Saturday's first half and nothing like the Cassel and Pioli helmed disaster we've been privy to the last four years.

As always...

DISCUS