Life Which of these things will happen in the next fifty years?

**cdcox** · 11-25-2014, 10:50 PM

A human celebrates his or her 130th birthday

They would have to be > 80 now. Too much deterioration.

A mile-high skyscraper is built somewhere in the world.

Too far to go. The ascent curve is too flat. Too big of a terrorist target.

A single war produces more than 20 million deaths

Yeah.

A third party holds the US Presidency

I voted no, but it wouldn't surprise me.

A U.S. president is assassinated

Yeah, we are way over due, not that I want it to happen.

Anti-gravity is brought into everyday use

pfft.

Artificial intelligence routinely conducts media interviews

This is a job humans would want to do. I don't think it will become a thing.

At least one dinosaur will be alive

Too tempting of a target to pass up.

At least one human will have their brain transplanted into a cloned version of their own body

Someone will be rich enough to try it. Tech leap isn't that great.

Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S.

Certainly.

Chiefs win a Super Bowl

I'm an optimist.

Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%)

Too many varieties.

Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S.

Similar to presidency.

Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered

You can tell that youtube guy is a nut even before you hit play.

Faster than light travel is achieved (human transport)

Star Trek says 2063, I say no.

Flying cars

Jetsons say yes in 2062, I say no.

Food shortages lead to permanent ban on consumption of meat in at least one country (population > 10 million)

Not unless it precedes the war where 20M people die.

Households manufacture all necessary goods themselves, purchasing only raw materials and plans for 3D printing

Seems very reasonable given existing 3D printer technology.

Human sets foot on Mars

Yes.

Humans can communicate directly with at least two species of animals.

If it were just a math problem (signal processing) we could already do it. I think the basis upon which we perceive reality are too different.

Implantable computer/phone/internet devices are in 80+% of Americans

Plug me in.

Large scale nuclear bomb dropped or launched in a hostile act

Nukes are passe.

Major epidemic kills 10% or more of the US population

Odds are against, but it could happen.

Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people)

Odds are against. World wide the 1918 flu wiped out up to 80M, but 10M in one country would be a lot.

Major meteor strike or other interplanetary event kills 1 million or more people

Nope, odds are against.

One-world government is established

No way that will happen.

Prenatal selection of certain traits will be possible for the middle class (e.g., height, nose shape, eye color)

Tech now exists.

Peaceful resolution to the Israel-Arab conflicts is achieved

Nope.

Permanent cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism

Nope.

Permanent human presence on Mars

Economics don't work out.

Permanent human presence on the moon

See Mars.

Poverty is eliminated in the U.S., based on minimum standards of living that are achieved

We will always have lazy people and greedy people, so no.

Proof of extraterrestrial life is confirmed

I think it is out there. I probably should have marked yes, but it will be though a radio signal or something.

Race is no longer an issue of conflict, contention, or policy in the U.S.

Nope.

Robot labor means that humans do not have to work to obtain basic needs (food, clothing, shelter)

Tech is possible. Social issues are tougher, but I voted yes.

Robot labor provides household servants for the middle class (maid, butler, etc.)

For sure.

Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off in hostile act

I voted no, but probably should have voted yes.

Space tourism becomes a feasible option for the American middle class

Seems very feasible given the number of private space companies.

The US Senate OR House becomes majority female

Could happen, but I voted no.

The world ends as described in the holy book of your choice

Nope.

Time travel to the future (more than one day)

Nope. If time travel were possible we would already have visitors from the future,

Time travel to the past (more than one day)

See above.

U.S. adds at least one new state from territory that is not part of a current state

We are no closer to doing this than we were 50 years ago.

U.S. is no longer the world’s most powerful nation

Almost certain. China is growing like mad.

U.S. no longer needs petroleum products as energy source

Not that far away.

U.S. splits into two or more countries

Nope.

**kysirsoze** · 11-25-2014, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people)

Odds are against. World wide the 1918 flu wiped out up to 80M, but 10M in one country would be a lot.

I think he means the nation's total population equals 10 million. so 2.5 million are killed. I could have misread.

**cdcox** · 11-25-2014, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kysirsoze

I think he means the nation's total population equals 10 million. so 2.5 million are killed. I could have misread.

You are correct, but 25% in a single country would be a very concentrated death rate for comparable flues.

**kysirsoze** · 11-25-2014, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

You are correct, but 25% in a single country would be a very concentrated death rate for comparable flues.

I see. Thought you were saying 10 million dead in one country. I don't know anything about any of that so I'll take your word for it.

vailpass · 11-25-2014, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

You are correct, but 25% in a single country would be a very concentrated death rate for comparable flues.

So I need to get rid of my fireplaces?

**cdcox** · 11-25-2014, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vailpass

So I need to get rid of my fireplaces?

"Flus" looks like it should rhyme with bus.

vailpass · 11-25-2014, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

"Flus" looks like it should rhyme with bus.

Heh, indeed. I'm just rambling, I'm not one to question your statistical prowess...

Mr_Tomahawk · 11-25-2014, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

A human celebrates his or her 130th birthday

They would have to be > 80 now. Too much deterioration.

A mile-high skyscraper is built somewhere in the world.

Too far to go. The ascent curve is too flat. Too big of a terrorist target.

A single war produces more than 20 million deaths

Yeah.

A third party holds the US Presidency

I voted no, but it wouldn't surprise me.

A U.S. president is assassinated

Yeah, we are way over due, not that I want it to happen.

Anti-gravity is brought into everyday use

pfft.

Artificial intelligence routinely conducts media interviews

This is a job humans would want to do. I don't think it will become a thing.

At least one dinosaur will be alive

Too tempting of a target to pass up.

At least one human will have their brain transplanted into a cloned version of their own body

Someone will be rich enough to try it. Tech leap isn't that great.

Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S.

Certainly.

Chiefs win a Super Bowl

I'm an optimist.

Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%)

Too many varieties.

Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S.

Similar to presidency.

Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered

You can tell that youtube guy is a nut even before you hit play.

Faster than light travel is achieved (human transport)

Star Trek says 2063, I say no.

Flying cars

Jetsons say yes in 2062, I say no.

Food shortages lead to permanent ban on consumption of meat in at least one country (population > 10 million)

Not unless it precedes the war where 20M people die.

Households manufacture all necessary goods themselves, purchasing only raw materials and plans for 3D printing

Seems very reasonable given existing 3D printer technology.

Human sets foot on Mars

Yes.

Humans can communicate directly with at least two species of animals.

If it were just a math problem (signal processing) we could already do it. I think the basis upon which we perceive reality are too different.

Implantable computer/phone/internet devices are in 80+% of Americans

Plug me in.

Large scale nuclear bomb dropped or launched in a hostile act

Nukes are passe.

Major epidemic kills 10% or more of the US population

Odds are against, but it could happen.

Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people)

Odds are against. World wide the 1918 flu wiped out up to 80M, but 10M in one country would be a lot.

Major meteor strike or other interplanetary event kills 1 million or more people

Nope, odds are against.

One-world government is established

No way that will happen.

Prenatal selection of certain traits will be possible for the middle class (e.g., height, nose shape, eye color)

Tech now exists.

Peaceful resolution to the Israel-Arab conflicts is achieved

Nope.

Permanent cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism

Nope.

Permanent human presence on Mars

Economics don't work out.

Permanent human presence on the moon

See Mars.

Poverty is eliminated in the U.S., based on minimum standards of living that are achieved

We will always have lazy people and greedy people, so no.

Proof of extraterrestrial life is confirmed

I think it is out there. I probably should have marked yes, but it will be though a radio signal or something.

Race is no longer an issue of conflict, contention, or policy in the U.S.

Nope.

Robot labor means that humans do not have to work to obtain basic needs (food, clothing, shelter)

Tech is possible. Social issues are tougher, but I voted yes.

Robot labor provides household servants for the middle class (maid, butler, etc.)

For sure.

Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off in hostile act

I voted no, but probably should have voted yes.

Space tourism becomes a feasible option for the American middle class

Seems very feasible given the number of private space companies.

The US Senate OR House becomes majority female

Could happen, but I voted no.

The world ends as described in the holy book of your choice

Nope.

Time travel to the future (more than one day)

Nope. If time travel were possible we would already have visitors from the future,

Time travel to the past (more than one day)

See above.

U.S. adds at least one new state from territory that is not part of a current state

We are no closer to doing this than we were 50 years ago.

U.S. is no longer the world’s most powerful nation

Almost certain. China is growing like mad.

U.S. no longer needs petroleum products as energy source

Not that far away.

U.S. splits into two or more countries

Nope.

This.

View Poll Results: Which of these will happen within 50 years? Check all that apply.
A human celebrates his or her 130th birthday	37	29.13%
A mile-high skyscraper is built somewhere in the world	14	11.02%
A single war produces more than 20 million deaths	36	28.35%
A third party holds the US Presidency	36	28.35%
A U.S. president is assassinated	52	40.94%
Anti-gravity is brought into everyday use	10	7.87%
Artificial intelligence routinely conducts media interviews	23	18.11%
At least one dinosaur will be alive	10	7.87%
At least one human will have their brain transplanted into a cloned version of their own body.	17	13.39%
Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S.	53	41.73%
Chiefs win a Super Bowl	79	62.20%
Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%)	29	22.83%
Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S.	73	57.48%
Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered	12	9.45%
Faster than light travel is achieved (human transport)	8	6.30%
Flying cars	23	18.11%
Food shortages lead to permanent ban on consumption of meat in at least one country (population > 10 million)	23	18.11%
Households manufacture all necessary goods themselves, purchasing only raw materials and plans for 3D printing	14	11.02%
Human sets foot on Mars	66	51.97%
Humans can communicate directly with at least two species of animals.	14	11.02%
Implantable computer/phone/internet devices are in 80+% of Americans	33	25.98%
Large scale nuclear bomb dropped or launched in a hostile act	40	31.50%
Major epidemic kills 10% or more of the US population	18	14.17%
Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people)	23	18.11%
Major meteor strike or other interplanetary event kills 1 million or more people	5	3.94%
One-world government is established	14	11.02%
Prenatal selection of certain traits will be possible for the middle class (e.g., height, nose shape, eye color)	46	36.22%
Peaceful resolution to the Israel-Arab conflicts is achieved	1	0.79%
Permanent cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism	2	1.57%
Permanent human presence on Mars	5	3.94%
Permanent human presence on the moon	18	14.17%
Poverty is eliminated in the U.S., based on minimum standards of living that are achieved	5	3.94%
Proof of extraterrestrial life is confirmed	35	27.56%
Race is no longer an issue of conflict, contention, or policy in the U.S.	5	3.94%
Robot labor means that humans do not have to work to obtain basic needs (food, clothing, shelter)	13	10.24%
Robot labor provides household servants for the middle class (maid, butler, etc.)	26	20.47%
Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off in hostile act	60	47.24%
Space tourism becomes a feasible option for the American middle class	33	25.98%
The US Senate OR House becomes majority female	8	6.30%
The world ends as described in the holy book of your choice	6	4.72%
Time travel to the future (more than one day)	1	0.79%
Time travel to the past (more than one day)	2	1.57%
U.S. adds at least one new state from territory that is not part of a current state	32	25.20%
U.S. is no longer the world’s most powerful nation	70	55.12%
U.S. no longer needs petroleum products as energy source	25	19.69%
U.S. splits into two or more countries	10	7.87%
None of these things will occur within 50 years.	1	0.79%
Poll fail. We will invent time travel, so the future will cease to exist.	5	3.94%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 127. You may not vote on this poll

11-25-2014, 10:50 PM	#1
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-588231	A human celebrates his or her 130th birthday They would have to be > 80 now. Too much deterioration. A mile-high skyscraper is built somewhere in the world. Too far to go. The ascent curve is too flat. Too big of a terrorist target. A single war produces more than 20 million deaths Yeah. A third party holds the US Presidency I voted no, but it wouldn't surprise me. A U.S. president is assassinated Yeah, we are way over due, not that I want it to happen. Anti-gravity is brought into everyday use pfft. Artificial intelligence routinely conducts media interviews This is a job humans would want to do. I don't think it will become a thing. At least one dinosaur will be alive Too tempting of a target to pass up. At least one human will have their brain transplanted into a cloned version of their own body Someone will be rich enough to try it. Tech leap isn't that great. Brick and mortar stores will cease to be the major means of purchases in the U.S. Certainly. Chiefs win a Super Bowl I'm an optimist. Cure for cancer (Late-stage survival rates > 97%) Too many varieties. Earthquake of Magnitude 8.3 or greater strikes somewhere in the continental U.S. Similar to presidency. Evidence of a pre-Ice Age civilization is discovered You can tell that youtube guy is a nut even before you hit play. Faster than light travel is achieved (human transport) Star Trek says 2063, I say no. Flying cars Jetsons say yes in 2062, I say no. Food shortages lead to permanent ban on consumption of meat in at least one country (population > 10 million) Not unless it precedes the war where 20M people die. Households manufacture all necessary goods themselves, purchasing only raw materials and plans for 3D printing Seems very reasonable given existing 3D printer technology. Human sets foot on Mars Yes. Humans can communicate directly with at least two species of animals. If it were just a math problem (signal processing) we could already do it. I think the basis upon which we perceive reality are too different. Implantable computer/phone/internet devices are in 80+% of Americans Plug me in. Large scale nuclear bomb dropped or launched in a hostile act Nukes are passe. Major epidemic kills 10% or more of the US population Odds are against, but it could happen. Major epidemic kills 25% or more of a nation’s population (nation > 10 million people) Odds are against. World wide the 1918 flu wiped out up to 80M, but 10M in one country would be a lot. Major meteor strike or other interplanetary event kills 1 million or more people Nope, odds are against. One-world government is established No way that will happen. Prenatal selection of certain traits will be possible for the middle class (e.g., height, nose shape, eye color) Tech now exists. Peaceful resolution to the Israel-Arab conflicts is achieved Nope. Permanent cessation of Islamic extremism and terrorism Nope. Permanent human presence on Mars Economics don't work out. Permanent human presence on the moon See Mars. Poverty is eliminated in the U.S., based on minimum standards of living that are achieved We will always have lazy people and greedy people, so no. Proof of extraterrestrial life is confirmed I think it is out there. I probably should have marked yes, but it will be though a radio signal or something. Race is no longer an issue of conflict, contention, or policy in the U.S. Nope. Robot labor means that humans do not have to work to obtain basic needs (food, clothing, shelter) Tech is possible. Social issues are tougher, but I voted yes. Robot labor provides household servants for the middle class (maid, butler, etc.) For sure. Small-scale radiation dirty bomb set off in hostile act I voted no, but probably should have voted yes. Space tourism becomes a feasible option for the American middle class Seems very feasible given the number of private space companies. The US Senate OR House becomes majority female Could happen, but I voted no. The world ends as described in the holy book of your choice Nope. Time travel to the future (more than one day) Nope. If time travel were possible we would already have visitors from the future, Time travel to the past (more than one day) See above. U.S. adds at least one new state from territory that is not part of a current state We are no closer to doing this than we were 50 years ago. U.S. is no longer the world’s most powerful nation Almost certain. China is growing like mad. U.S. no longer needs petroleum products as energy source Not that far away. U.S. splits into two or more countries Nope.
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