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Old 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM  
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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6-10 Team with Chase Daniel
Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:23 PM   #2
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You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:24 PM   #3
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Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:25 PM   #4
King_Chief_Fan King_Chief_Fan is offline
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Any qb can play this offense.
Any claim to fame about Daniel in this offense is basically reeruned. 5 visits to the red zone and 1 TD.
Nothing to crow about for Daniel other than he can fill in adequately for this teams game manager.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:25 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Bowser View Post
You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.
I agree with this mostly. The one exception is the Buffalo game. I think Smith won that game for us. It was the perfect game for his non turnover and risk averse nature paid off huge.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:28 PM   #6
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You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.
I'm not convincing anyone of anything, I'm simply posting the data.

If you believe Chase Daniel could run a full season with a 93 rating though, I'll find that extremely doubtful and nobody in the League would likely agree.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:28 PM   #7
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Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.
Well, for Packers fans, I think it's...
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2nd favorite player: One legged Aaron Rodgers
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:29 PM   #8
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Daniel didn't have a very good game, but I do think its hard to step in and play at a high level when you don't even know you are starting until a few days before the game.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:29 PM   #9
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I agree with this mostly. The one exception is the Buffalo game. I think Smith won that game for us. It was the perfect game for his non turnover and risk averse nature paid off huge.
I remember that Buffalo game being won by fantastic play out of Ron Parker, only to see him get turned to burnt toast the rest of the season. I honestly have no memory of Alex's performance that game.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:29 PM   #10
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Daniel's first start of the year with less than a week of preparation > Smith's first start of the year with a full offseason.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:32 PM   #11
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Daniel didn't have a very good game, but I do think its hard to step in and play at a high level when you don't even know you are starting until a few days before the game.
With the limited practice days and times allowed, I wonder how many minutes of 1st team practice snaps he even got to take?
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:33 PM   #12
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:33 PM   #13
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.
My thoughts too when I heard that. I figured it was probably being said here too. Alex' rating the past 4 years has been pretty stout and is probably adding 2 full wins to our season records vs an average QB.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:34 PM   #14
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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95% of the production.
Except not even close.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:35 PM   #15
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Daniel's first start of the year with less than a week of preparation > Smith's first start of the year with a full offseason.
Pretty much.

He has the same arm and running ability, but way more guts.
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