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Old 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM  
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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6-10 Team with Chase Daniel
Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:56 PM   #31
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I can tell you that Alex isn't getting us anywhere, so why not put that cap space towards the ultimate OLine or WR's?

Besides, the 2 games of data backs up my argument a hell of a lot better than yours.
So 2 games isn't enough for me to make an assessment - but it's enough for you? Good to know. Thanks.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:57 PM   #32
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WHO? WHO COULD WE HAVE GOTTEN TO FILL ALEX'S MIGHTY SHOES, THEY ASKED?

Answer:

Just about anyone. And we did.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:57 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
So 2 games isn't enough for me to make an assessment - but it's enough for you? Good to know. Thanks.
You're welcome. Any time.
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Old 12-28-2014, 05:59 PM   #34
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What's ironic is most people would've been in favor of dumping Daniel for Bray and Murray. But I think he's a solid veteran backup. He's done a good job when asked to play in the regular season.

But anything can happen in a single game too. Matt Flynn is in the Green Bay Packers record book for yards and TDs in a game. He started a week 17 game and put up better numbers than Rodgers had all year. So it can happen to anyone.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:00 PM   #35
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What's ironic is most people would've been in favor of dumping Daniel for Bray and Murray. But I think he's a solid veteran backup. He's done a good job when asked to play in the regular season.

But anything can happen in a single game, too. Matt Flynn is in the Green Bay Packers record book for yards and TDs in a game. He started a week 17 game and put up better numbers than Rodgers had all year.
I'm still in favor of dumping him. Him and Smith.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:00 PM   #36
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We're just making the point that Alex was in no way better in 15 games than what Chase was today
He was as good today (75 rating) as the guy with a 93 rating? Bizarro world stuff.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:01 PM   #37
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When you look at the games the Chiefs have won the past two years with Alex Smith at QB, it's hard to find a game where a performance like Chase Daniel's performance today would NOT have won the game. It maybe costs the Chiefs 2 wins over the two seasons, and maybe turns a few more losses into blowouts.

Considering the huge gap in pay (and cost to acquire) and therefore expectations, it's rather disturbing to see such a small gap in performance.

Just imagine the Chiefs had gone with a stop-gap like Daniel (or Campbell, or Palmer, or Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc.), used the picks traded for Smith to improve the roster with a WR (Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, etc) or OL, and used the money either on free agents or to lock up Justin Houston before he recorded a 22-sack season (which probably saves KC $10-15 million over the course of a five-year deal) and hit FA.

They'd be in much better shape for the long haul. Especially if that 2014 first round pick had been used on someone like Teddy Bridgewater.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:01 PM   #38
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I want to know what you're smoking if you think Smiff is way better than Daniel!


have you ever tried meth?
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:01 PM   #39
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He was as good today (75 rating) as the guy with a 93 rating? Bizarro world stuff.
How about you compare their first starts of the year instead of 1 game vs 15, dumbass.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:02 PM   #40
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So 2 games isn't enough for me to make an assessment - but it's enough for you? Good to know. Thanks.
No the two seasons of Alex Smith data is enough for us to back up our assessment. One of those games was with backups at every single position last year, and today's game was with a busted up Jamaal Charles.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:03 PM   #41
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I don't think anyone is looking for Daniel to be the starter here. We're just making the point that Alex was in no way better in 15 games than what Chase was today (with no reps the first few days of practice with the ones, to boot).
Daniel is going into the HOF, bud.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:04 PM   #42
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At the price Daniel would run; we'd be able to spend considerably on some decent OL/WR/whatever else. Alex's contract will cripple this franchise.

Not that I'm any sort of Daniel fan; but the only difference between sitting home at 9-7 and sitting home at 6-10 is getting a better draft slot.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:05 PM   #43
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When you look at the games the Chiefs have won the past two years with Alex Smith at QB, it's hard to find a game where a performance like Chase Daniel's performance today would NOT have won the game. It maybe costs the Chiefs 2 wins over the two seasons, and maybe turns a few more losses into blowouts.
The regression value of QB Rating puts serious doubts into your thesis, unless you believe Daniel is a 90+ guy over the course of the season. And that would be an opinion you'd be unlikely to find many places.


Quote:
Considering the huge gap in pay (and cost to acquire) and therefore expectations, it's rather disturbing to see such a small gap in performance.
The gap is sizeable. But I'd agree Smith is making a lot of $. If however you feel putting $ into other positions is worth a 10-pt hit to QB Rating......the data suggests that's a bad idea.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:06 PM   #44
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I don't think anyone is looking for Daniel to be the starter here. We're just making the point that Alex was in no way better in 15 games than what Chase was today (with no reps the first few days of practice with the ones, to boot).
Always viewed Daniel as a one read qb and today was no exception. Until I see the dude actually run through progressions, to me, chase Daniel is a slightly more athletic Matt Flynn.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:14 PM   #45
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The regression value of QB Rating puts serious doubts into your thesis, unless you believe Daniel is a 90+ guy over the course of the season. And that would be an opinion you'd be unlikely to find many places.




The gap is sizeable. But I'd agree Smith is making a lot of $. If however you feel putting $ into other positions is worth a 10-pt hit to QB Rating......the data suggests that's a bad idea.
I'm not willing to base that read on QB rating, which I think is a nice stat but not THAT telling or conclusive.

Smith's QB Rating is also a fairly "empty" one. He throws a bunch of short, safe, high-percentage passes, which makes his completion percentage good, and he avoids turnovers. Both of these factors artificially inflate his QB rating.

Go look at it game-by-game. That's what I did before I said that. There are very few games that the Chiefs have won in 2013 and 2014 that actually required Alex Smith to DO much at all (other than manage the game and avoid ****ing up).
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