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Old 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM  
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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6-10 Team with Chase Daniel
Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:32 PM   #61
58-4ever 58-4ever is offline
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My view of Chase today: He did really well with the first "however many" scripted plays. After that, he struggled when things changed. He's a top 5 backup QB at the top-end.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:37 PM   #62
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It's interesting: we all know the value of a franchise QB, but some want to ditch our 93-rating QB and allocate savings to other (less important) positions. These are contrary ideas.

I'm perfectly aware Alex Smith is not popular on this board so I'm under no illusion that can ever change.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:42 PM   #63
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You're not competing for a SB with either of these garbage QBs, so who gives a rat's ass?
And that's the bottom line.

The real question should be "Which guy gives you a better chance to build SB team while grooming a stud QB?" Not "Do you want 6 wins or 9 wins?"
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:58 PM   #64
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If Bowe didn't drop that pass on the goalline, what would Chase's rating have been? What has Alex done this year that makes you think Chase didn't look like a complete copy of him today? Or is this some weak ass attempt to knock on a Mizzou guy?
In fairness, he can comfortably lean back in the "nope, too small a sample size" chair... but the fact is that we've twice now watched Daniel be just as productive and even gutsier with his choices than Smith has been in almost two years.

Its not an advocacy for Daniel as teh savior, its more of an indictment against Smith... when your backup creates this much doubt, you're not worth 16 million per, period.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:58 PM   #65
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You're not competing for a SB with either of these garbage QBs, so who gives a rat's ass?
Exactly. Why pay $16 million for that garbage QB when you can get 90 percent of the play for 25 percent of the pay?

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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
It's interesting: we all know the value of a franchise QB, but some want to ditch our 93-rating QB and allocate savings to other (less important) positions. These are contrary ideas.

I'm perfectly aware Alex Smith is not popular on this board so I'm under no illusion that can ever change.
Alex Smith is not a franchise QB. His QB rating is a mirage propped up by empty stats.

He's an adequate NFL starter, no more. Unfortunately, he's paid like more.
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:02 PM   #66
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In fairness, he can comfortably lean back in the "nope, too small a sample size" chair... but the fact is that we've twice now watched Daniel be just as productive and even gutsier with his choices than Smith has been in almost two years.

Its not an advocacy for Daniel as teh savior, its more of an indictment against Smith... when your backup creates this much doubt, you're not worth 16 million per, period.
Pretty much.

As a KU fan, I pretty much hate the booger eater; but I just don't know that he's that much better or worse than the money-pit we've got at QB. And that's sad stuff.
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:02 PM   #67
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Alex Smith is not a franchise QB. His QB rating is a mirage propped up by empty stats.

He's an adequate NFL starter, no more. Unfortunately, he's paid like more.
Yep. It's like saying "Jason Vargas is a solid pitcher so why complain about him being your ace?"
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:05 PM   #68
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Pretty much... sad stuff.
Very.
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:07 PM   #69
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:08 PM   #70
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Yep. It's like saying "Jason Vargas is a solid pitcher so why complain about him being your ace?"
It would be more like saying: "We're going nowhere with Jason Vargas as our ace. Let's replace him with Liam Hendricks, and lose games while drafting young pitchers until we finally find our ace"
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:11 PM   #71
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It would be more like saying: "We're going nowhere with Jason Vargas as our ace. Let's replace him with Liam Hendricks, and lose games while drafting young pitchers until we finally find our ace"
Interesting. The Royals lost a bunch of games, found their ace high in the draft Grienke and flipped him for ended up Shields, Escobar, and Cain and went to the world series. You might be on to something here.
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:13 PM   #72
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It would be more like saying: "We're going nowhere with Jason Vargas as our ace. Let's replace him with Liam Hendricks, and lose games while drafting young pitchers until we finally find our ace"
There's no one player on a baseball team who is as important to the outcome of a season as the QB is to a football team, so there's no way to make the comparison individually.

QB=Pitching Rotation generally is about right.

Alex Smith is the equivalent of what the Brewers rolled out there last year. It wasn't awful. It was about the 20th best rotation in baseball. But it was not good enough to be a playoff team or a serious contender for the world title.

I'd think someone who pays such close attention to production compared to salary and overall value when evaluating baseball would apply the same standard to the NFL.

I'd also expect someone as plugged into advanced metrics in MLB to not throw out the NFL's equivalent of Batting Average as THE key stat by which to judge a QB.
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:24 PM   #73
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Of course the only reason this thread was made is because of the alma mater of the QB.
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:25 PM   #74
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Hey my bad if anyone thought I was advocating for Chase. I'm advocating a shit QB for 4 million per, versus a shit QB for 18 million.
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:26 PM   #75
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Wanna know why I haven't given up on Alex yet? Because my choices are CHUEFS football or most likely no football. FML
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