*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

QOs are interesting to me, as teams clearly have not figured out how to use them effectively. The last I had seen, not a single player had accepted one. That means teams aren't using them enough, thus a lot of picks are being left on the table. If nobody is accepting the offers, they aren't being issued often enough.

I'm not sure they are really meant or expected to be accepted. It fits such a narrow range of players, so narrow that nobody has ever accepted.

Pretty much anyone good enough to be offered a 1-yr deal worth $15M is going to be good enough to be offered multiple years at $15M or more as a free agent, so why would they ever take the deal.

It seems to only possibly fit a player right on the edge of the $15M market value, where he thinks that taking a 1 yr deal and having a good year will catapult them into a much higher range the next year. But even then, do you pass up multi-years at $15M as a free agent to take 1 yr at $15M in hopes of later getting multi years at $20M, when you risk injury or a bad year and ending up with multi-years at $5M?

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I was told they talked to him about RF when converting him in the minors, but he wasn't comfortable reading fly balls on "that" side of the field.

I'd be shocked if he signed somewhere knowing they plan to move him to RF.

Re: More QOs...

I think teams are very judicious with them because you don't want to get stuck with a marginal guy.

From the players side, it might seem a little too close to the pre-Curt Flood days for some. I think we see some accepted this year.

You're almost certainly correct regarding the reasoning behind teams not offering more, but the teams are wrong, IMO. It's like bluffing in poker. If you never get called, you aren't bluffing enough. We know that players tend not to want one year offers. Give them out liberally, and if you end up overpaying a player by $2,000,000 here and there, so be it. Until the numbers change, the small risk of slightly overpaying a player is worth the opportunity to stock up on high draft picks.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

I'm not sure they are really meant or expected to be accepted. It fits such a narrow range of players, so narrow that nobody has ever accepted.

Pretty much anyone good enough to be offered a 1-yr deal worth $15M is going to be good enough to be offered multiple years at $15M or more as a free agent, so why would they ever take the deal.

It seems to only possibly fit a player right on the edge of the $15M market value, where he thinks that taking a 1 yr deal and having a good year will catapult them into a much higher range the next year. But even then, do you pass up multi-years at $15M as a free agent to take 1 yr at $15M in hopes of later getting multi years at $20M, when you risk injury or a bad year and ending up with multi-years at $5M?

That's sort of my point. Even a guy who is worth $10mm a year is likely to reject a single year deal of $15mm in order to secure a longer contact. It's an inefficiency in the market that has yet to be exploited. Worst case scenario, you slightly overpay a player for one year. The upside is a free first round draft pick.

[Saul Good]

So it sounds like the Reds are having a fire sale. Joey Votto is owed $200,000,000 over the next 8 years. How much would the Reds have to eat in order to make it worthwhile to take him?

I'd say $40,000,000 or so would make it tempting. 8 years at $20,000,000 AAV?

[Nightfyre]

I would hate to have the Royals fall off the front page so soon, so I will post a hypothetical again:

Royals Push Payroll to 155M

Existing payroll is 97M
Deal Dyson/Infante (-8, 89)
Offer Holland a three year deal (4/5.5/10[M.O.]) (+4,93)
Offer Gordon an extension (5/85) (+17,110)
Offer Zobrist an extension (4/52) (+13,123)
Offer Heyward a contract (10/200, Player options starting at year 7)(+20,143)
Offer Latos* a contract (1/10M)(+10, 153M total)

Note: Latos takes a one year deal in a pitchers park with the best defense in baseball behind him. He takes this deal because he needs to rebuild his reputation. The Royals straighten his ass out in the clubhouse and Latos moves on to a huge contract next year. Royals tender a QO and get a pick for their troubles.

C: Perez, Butera
1B: Hosmer, Morales
2B: Zobrist, Colon
SS: Escobar
3B: Moustakas, Cuthbert
OF: Gordon, Cain, Heyward, Orlando, Gore

SP: Ventura, Volquez, Medlen, Duffy, Latos
RP: Davis, Herrera, Hochevar, XXX,XXX,XXX


Then it's just a matter of stocking up the pen again.

[WhawhaWhat]

AL MVP, top 3 (alphabetically): Lorenzo Cain, Josh Donaldson, Mike Trout. Winner announced Nov. 19.

— BBWAA (@officialBBWAA) November 10, 2015

[KCCHIEFS27]

Ned yost isn't even a finalist for manager of the year?? Are you kidding me?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

So it sounds like the Reds are having a fire sale. Joey Votto is owed $200,000,000 over the next 8 years. How much would the Reds have to eat in order to make it worthwhile to take him?

I'd say $40,000,000 or so would make it tempting. 8 years at $20,000,000 AAV?

Biggest issue is his age. Votto is 32 years old. And honestly, if you take him out of the bandbox in Cincinnati, you're probably looking at a 20-HR hitter, tops.

He's also been an injury prone guy, and KC has nowhere to play him unless it moves Hosmer now.

If they're worried about Gordon holding up for 5 years at an AAV approaching $20 million, actually getting a more injury prone guy for more money seems like a non-fit.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by KCCHIEFS27

Ned yost isn't even a finalist for manager of the year?? Are you kidding me?

Sorry, not on our team. But we beat that guy too as well.

[KCFalcon59]

Esky with the GG! Awesome.

[KCFalcon59]

Hosmer with the GG!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

I would hate to have the Royals fall off the front page so soon, so I will post a hypothetical again:



Royals Push Payroll to 155M



Existing payroll is 97M

Deal Dyson/Infante (-8, 89)

Offer Holland a three year deal (4/5.5/10[M.O.]) (+4,93)

Offer Gordon an extension (5/85) (+17,110)

Offer Zobrist an extension (4/52) (+13,123)

Offer Heyward a contract (10/200, Player options starting at year 7)(+20,143)

Offer Latos* a contract (1/10M)(+10, 153M total)



Note: Latos takes a one year deal in a pitchers park with the best defense in baseball behind him. He takes this deal because he needs to rebuild his reputation. The Royals straighten his ass out in the clubhouse and Latos moves on to a huge contract next year. Royals tender a QO and get a pick for their troubles.



C: Perez, Butera

1B: Hosmer, Morales

2B: Zobrist, Colon

SS: Escobar

3B: Moustakas, Cuthbert

OF: Gordon, Cain, Heyward, Orlando, Gore



SP: Ventura, Volquez, Medlen, Duffy, Latos

RP: Davis, Herrera, Hochevar, XXX,XXX,XXX





Then it's just a matter of stocking up the pen again.

An interesting proposal. Gordon-Cain-Heyward would certainly contend for best OF defense of all time.

They'd be left filling out the bench with cheap internal options, especially in the bullpen, but they could make that work.

I think Latos is really unlikely, as is Heyward. But this does demonstrate that something like Gordon + Zobrist + Mike Leake/Marco Estrada is not completely crazy monetarily.

Edit: oh, and you would need a team that really loved Dyson and saw him as an everyday guy to get them to take Infante's contract. Not sure that team is out there...

[Coach]

Eric Hosmer wins his 3rd straight Gold Glove. First AL 1B to win 3 straight since Rafael Palmeiro 1997-1999

— Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc) November 11, 2015

#Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar wins his first career Gold Glove.

— Joel Goldberg (@goldbergkc) November 11, 2015

[penbrook]

Cespedes beat Gordon for the GG but Gordon did miss a lot of time

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by penbrook

Cespedes beat Gordon for the GG but Gordon did miss a lot of time

I'm fine with that.