Royals *** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository *** - Page 163

duncan_idaho · 09:49 AM

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

Sure-Oz · 01-11-2016, 11:32 PM

That call man. So awesome

Prison Bitch · 01-12-2016, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

Ah, yes, much ado about nothing.

The "projections"- any of them, worked out so well last year, why not just rinse and repeat for 2016.
Square peg, round hole.

To start with, the variance already clusters 90% of the teams within about a 10 game difference, so the significance of their modeling is rather arbitrary. It's almost the equivalent of having a poll result of A at 45% & B at 55% with a margin of error of +/- 20 points.
Sure, you spit out a number, and based it upon some "data", but that doesn't ensure it's reliability.

Which brings us to the second point. Clearly, whatever the Royals are doing in terms of team makeup and approach to the game is unaccounted for in part of how they came up with their formula.
Last year, the Royals blew every wins prediction out of the water, and let's not forget to factor in September. The team was so far ahead in the standings and even admitted to struggling with being bored and remaining motivated while waiting for the playoffs to get under way. Otherwise, it's safe to say that they would have won over 100 games.
I'm not building up their talent for a comparison basis, but to illustrate just how totally off the expected wins predictions are, and even more so when they cluster most teams together, it's a virtually insignificant exercise.

All I can say to that is: go put $ on it. "Our friends in the desert", as Brent Musberger so aptly puts it, have access to everything you & I don't and they don't put out lines people can game.

I hope they're wrong again but I wouldn't dare bet against them. As of last Oct 31 we are middle of the pack in the futures
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

**Anyong Bluth** · 01-12-2016, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

All I can say to that is: go put $ on it. "Our friends in the desert", as Brent Musberger so aptly puts it, have access to everything you & I don't and they don't put out lines people can game.

I hope they're wrong again but I wouldn't dare bet against them. As of last Oct 31 we are middle of the pack in the futures
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

Vegas doesn't pick winners, they set the line to hedge their bet by trying to get a 50/50 split on each side. That's in part based upon public perception.

Their "inside info" comes into play when they set a line that draws heavy action because it seems like a "lock".

If the odds are 5:1 on the Royals, how much action do you think they're going to take in? Compare it to if you have 40:1 odds. You're going to end up with more longshot bets for which they may have to pay out on a single team, but keep the everything on the other 29 teams.

When you say, I wouldn't bet against Vegas, all you're really saying is I wouldn't bet at all. Period.

Did Vegas pick KC last year?

I'd advise you not taking betting tips from a 90 year old broadcaster.

Great Expectations · 01-12-2016, 08:38 AM

It is a bit of a misnomer that Vegas wants bets to be 50/50. Sometimes they gamble as well. Here is some information from the Wynn Sports book.

Wynn sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that in Vegas alone, an estimated $10 million swung from one side to the other with the late touchdown by the Tigers.

"It was enormous for us," said Ed Salmons, race and sportsbook manager for the Westgate Superbook. "It's just like the Super Bowl. You want the favorite to win because there are a lot of underdog bets on the money line, but you don't want them to cover the spread. So it worked out perfectly for us."

Salmons said the late Clemson touchdown was worth well more than $100,000 to the positive for his sportsbook.

I read a couple of articles yesterday (I can't find them) that said 80% of the bets at a couple of casinos were coming in for 'Bama to cover. The casinos weren't raising the line trying to get more money on Clemson.

**Anyong Bluth** · 01-12-2016, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

It is a bit of a misnomer that Vegas wants bets to be 50/50. Sometimes they gamble as well. Here is some information from the Wynn Sports book.

Wynn sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that in Vegas alone, an estimated $10 million swung from one side to the other with the late touchdown by the Tigers.

"It was enormous for us," said Ed Salmons, race and sportsbook manager for the Westgate Superbook. "It's just like the Super Bowl. You want the favorite to win because there are a lot of underdog bets on the money line, but you don't want them to cover the spread. So it worked out perfectly for us."

Salmons said the late Clemson touchdown was worth well more than $100,000 to the positive for his sportsbook.

I read a couple of articles yesterday (I can't find them) that said 80% of the bets at a couple of casinos were coming in for 'Bama to cover. The casinos weren't raising the line trying to get more money on Clemson.

... and that's where they employ the bookies to be on top of things.
Yes, a line doesn't just move to balance 50/50- that's where the book taps into their secret sauce. How much a line moves is a good indication of the book's confidence level of the opening line.

It's a lot easier to find diamond picks in more obscure games if you know lower tier college football or basketball. The sportsbooks also don't see a ton of action on them so it's not a position where they often get overexposed.

Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest betting day of the year. Why? Because every Tom, Dick, and Harry toss $$$ at hunch bets. Vegas loves all the fish, even if they have to pay out to a few

.

Lex Luthor · 01-12-2016, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

All I can say to that is: go put $ on it. "Our friends in the desert", as Brent Musberger so aptly puts it, have access to everything you & I don't and they don't put out lines people can game.

I hope they're wrong again but I wouldn't dare bet against them. As of last Oct 31 we are middle of the pack in the futures
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

I intend to do exactly that. Last summer I put $50 at 40:1 on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. If I win that $2000, I'll put it all on the Royals to win at least 81 games.

Prison Bitch · 01-12-2016, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

It is a bit of a misnomer that Vegas wants bets to be 50/50. Sometimes they gamble as well. Here is some information from the Wynn Sports book.

Wynn sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that in Vegas alone, an estimated $10 million swung from one side to the other with the late touchdown by the Tigers.

"It was enormous for us," said Ed Salmons, race and sportsbook manager for the Westgate Superbook. "It's just like the Super Bowl. You want the favorite to win because there are a lot of underdog bets on the money line, but you don't want them to cover the spread. So it worked out perfectly for us."

Salmons said the late Clemson touchdown was worth well more than $100,000 to the positive for his sportsbook.

I read a couple of articles yesterday (I can't find them) that said 80% of the bets at a couple of casinos were coming in for 'Bama to cover. The casinos weren't raising the line trying to get more money on Clemson.

I wouldn't even bother. This concept (that a house can/does take a position) has been explained multiple times on this board, but it never sinks in. It's simply no match for the quick meme "Vegas only wants half the public" rejoinder, which cannot ever die no matter how false it is in actuality.

duncan_idaho · 01-12-2016, 09:30 AM

I'm not going to talk about gambling. What am I going to talk about?

It's a DI Special - I'm going to talk about a kid who is 4-5 years away from playing in the majors!

I've heard the royals connected to Cuban phenom Lazarito in the past few days. He has been declared a free agent and is not subject to bonus pool limitations like normal Latin America prospects.

KC, due to the amount it spent signing LA players in 2015, is facing limits on what it can spend moving forward as a result. So it might make sense for them to spend big on Lazarito. They'd pay a dollar-for-dollar tax on him but would face no worse penalty, really, than if they didn't sign him.

Why should they consider it? Well, Lazarito is the equivalent of a top 5 draft pick. He's a 5-tool corner OF, just 16, who is very physically mature for his age and has crazy athleticism and explosiveness. He's a special talent, but carries major risk like all prospects. Will be interesting to see where he lands.

Another note: Italian youngster Marten Gasparini has drawn some rave reviews from BA scouting hounds, who ranked him in KC's top 10. He's probably not going to stick at SS due to his glove, but he profiles nicely as a future CF type with great speed.

His tools have been favorably compared to Mondesi's, and Mondesi has some of the best tools in the minors.

Lex Luthor · 01-12-2016, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I wouldn't even bother. This concept (that a house can/does take a position) has been explained multiple times on this board, but it never sinks in. It's simply no match for the quick meme "Vegas only wants half the public" rejoinder, which cannot ever die no matter how false it is in actuality.

Perhaps. But what has been definitively proven to be false in recent years are the predictions that the Vegas insiders make regarding the number of games the Royals will win in the regular season.

It's foolish to say "they know more than we do about this" when they consistently demonstrate the opposite.

Prison Bitch · 01-12-2016, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

I intend to do exactly that. Last summer I put $50 at 40:1 on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. If I win that $2000, I'll put it all on the Royals to win at least 81 games.

I can respect that. Putting real $ on something is way better than lecturing someone that they're wrong. Vegas is no different from stock market analysts or any other prognosticator - they have to rely on underlying fundamental data and adjust from there. I suspect they'll look at the 80 wins and bump it 1-2 games.

DeepSouth · 01-12-2016, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'm not going to talk about gambling. What am I going to talk about?

It's a DI Special - I'm going to talk about a kid who is 4-5 years away from playing in the majors!

I've heard the royals connected to Cuban phenom Lazarito in the past few days. He has been declared a free agent and is not subject to bonus pool limitations like normal Latin America prospects.

KC, due to the amount it spent signing LA players in 2015, is facing limits on what it can spend moving forward as a result. So it might make sense for them to spend big on Lazarito. They'd pay a dollar-for-dollar tax on him but would face no worse penalty, really, than if they didn't sign him.

Why should they consider it? Well, Lazarito is the equivalent of a top 5 draft pick. He's a 5-tool corner OF, just 16, who is very physically mature for his age and has crazy athleticism and explosiveness. He's a special talent, but carries major risk like all prospects. Will be interesting to see where he lands.

Another note: Italian youngster Marten Gasparini has drawn some rave reviews from BA scouting hounds, who ranked him in KC's top 10. He's probably not going to stick at SS due to his glove, but he profiles nicely as a future CF type with great speed.

His tools have been favorably compared to Mondesi's, and Mondesi has some of the best tools in the minors.

thank you Duncan for talking about playing baseball, or, players that play baseball instead of gambling on baseball. Needs to be a "gambling" thread so it won't clutter up this baseball thread.

**Anyong Bluth** · 01-12-2016, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'm not going to talk about gambling. What am I going to talk about?

It's a DI Special - I'm going to talk about a kid who is 4-5 years away from playing in the majors!

I've heard the royals connected to Cuban phenom Lazarito in the past few days. He has been declared a free agent and is not subject to bonus pool limitations like normal Latin America prospects.

KC, due to the amount it spent signing LA players in 2015, is facing limits on what it can spend moving forward as a result. So it might make sense for them to spend big on Lazarito. They'd pay a dollar-for-dollar tax on him but would face no worse penalty, really, than if they didn't sign him.

Why should they consider it? Well, Lazarito is the equivalent of a top 5 draft pick. He's a 5-tool corner OF, just 16, who is very physically mature for his age and has crazy athleticism and explosiveness. He's a special talent, but carries major risk like all prospects. Will be interesting to see where he lands.

Another note: Italian youngster Marten Gasparini has drawn some rave reviews from BA scouting hounds, who ranked him in KC's top 10. He's probably not going to stick at SS due to his glove, but he profiles nicely as a future CF type with great speed.

His tools have been favorably compared to Mondesi's, and Mondesi has some of the best tools in the minors.

Thanks for the info and back to béisbol talk!

**Anyong Bluth** · 01-12-2016, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I can respect that. Putting real $ on something is way better than lecturing someone that they're wrong. Vegas is no different from stock market analysts or any other prognosticator - they have to rely on underlying fundamental data and adjust from there. I suspect they'll look at the 80 wins and bump it 1-2 games.

Last thing I'll say about it, because I agree with your sentiment above.

Mainly, the majority of people who post in this thread obviously watch the Royals A LOT more than John Q Public, and have a reasonably better idea of how they shape up among especially the division and to a degree the rest of the league. I know there's a few that posters here and the GDTs that I would buy their predictions over pretty much anyone in the media.

It's no different than the utter nonsense and total bullshit "insider info" 99% of the guys reported with respect to Gordon, FA, and his likelihood of remaining with KC.
Way too much throwing crap at the wall and see if it sticks.

Sure-Oz · 01-12-2016, 11:55 AM

@Buster_ESPN: Wei-Yin Chen's deal with the Marlins is for five years, with a sixth-year vesting option.

blake5676 · 01-12-2016, 12:04 PM

Gerardo Parra has signed with #Rockies for 3 years and $26 million, according to report from my friend @WilmerReina.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 12, 2016

Little cheaper than I was expecting he would get. Good deal for the Rocks, IMO.

11-02-2015, 05:00 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-2079692	* Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository * Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB. In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title. Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore. We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa. Now, let's talk about the offseason: LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully). First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts. Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things. If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc. I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk. Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth? Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years. Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list). Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period. The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer. I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be: 1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160). Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura) 2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016. Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell. After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart. 3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season. 4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time. And, as always, here are the Prospects: Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. Spoiler! 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. 18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates. 19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system. 20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
Posts: 22,434

01-12-2016, 08:38 AM	#2434
Great Expectations MVP Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Joplin, MO Casino cash: $10772338	It is a bit of a misnomer that Vegas wants bets to be 50/50. Sometimes they gamble as well. Here is some information from the Wynn Sports book. Wynn sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that in Vegas alone, an estimated $10 million swung from one side to the other with the late touchdown by the Tigers. "It was enormous for us," said Ed Salmons, race and sportsbook manager for the Westgate Superbook. "It's just like the Super Bowl. You want the favorite to win because there are a lot of underdog bets on the money line, but you don't want them to cover the spread. So it worked out perfectly for us." Salmons said the late Clemson touchdown was worth well more than $100,000 to the positive for his sportsbook. I read a couple of articles yesterday (I can't find them) that said 80% of the bets at a couple of casinos were coming in for 'Bama to cover. The casinos weren't raising the line trying to get more money on Clemson. __________________
Posts: 7,307

01-12-2016, 09:30 AM	#2438
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-2079692	I'm not going to talk about gambling. What am I going to talk about? It's a DI Special - I'm going to talk about a kid who is 4-5 years away from playing in the majors! I've heard the royals connected to Cuban phenom Lazarito in the past few days. He has been declared a free agent and is not subject to bonus pool limitations like normal Latin America prospects. KC, due to the amount it spent signing LA players in 2015, is facing limits on what it can spend moving forward as a result. So it might make sense for them to spend big on Lazarito. They'd pay a dollar-for-dollar tax on him but would face no worse penalty, really, than if they didn't sign him. Why should they consider it? Well, Lazarito is the equivalent of a top 5 draft pick. He's a 5-tool corner OF, just 16, who is very physically mature for his age and has crazy athleticism and explosiveness. He's a special talent, but carries major risk like all prospects. Will be interesting to see where he lands. Another note: Italian youngster Marten Gasparini has drawn some rave reviews from BA scouting hounds, who ranked him in KC's top 10. He's probably not going to stick at SS due to his glove, but he profiles nicely as a future CF type with great speed. His tools have been favorably compared to Mondesi's, and Mondesi has some of the best tools in the minors. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 22,434

01-12-2016, 12:04 PM	#2445
blake5676 Veteran Join Date: Oct 2013 Casino cash: $-839677	Gerardo Parra has signed with #Rockies for 3 years and $26 million, according to report from my friend @WilmerReina. — Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 12, 2016 Little cheaper than I was expecting he would get. Good deal for the Rocks, IMO.
Posts: 1,283

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