Patrick Mahomes Question Looms Large as Alex Smith Continues to Struggle

[RunKC]

Patrick Mahomes Question Looms Large as Alex Smith's Struggles Continue

Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Patrick Mahomes Question Looms Large as Alex Smith's Struggles Continue

BRENT SOBLESKI
NOVEMBER 19, 2017
Alex Smith has gone full Alex Smith over the last five weeks, and the Kansas City Chiefs need some type of spark to revert back to the squad that opened the year 5-0 with impressive victories over the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.

Head coach Andy Reid must consider the possibility of making a change at quarterback after Sunday's 12-9 overtime loss to the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.

A move of this magnitude isn't taken lightly, nor is it a knee-jerk reaction to the losses. Even the best teams struggle. Any given Sunday, right? But it's how the Chiefs continue to lose and Smith's role in their recent downturn that makes a switch at the game's most important position a legitimate possibility.

Patrick Mahomes is Smith's polar opposite, and the rookie's playmaking ability could send a charge throughout the entire organization.

For years, Smith earned the designation of the quintessential game manager. He was good enough to win games as part of a talented core, but he wasn't the type of quarterback who took over games. He made the expected plays and didn't turn the ball over, yet he lacked big-time throws.

His game began to evolve under Reid's supervision. The veteran signal-caller took on more responsibilities to create as both a passer and runner, especially after a knee injury cut Jamaal Charles' career in Kansas City short.

Smith started to look more like the quarterback once deemed an elite talent and drafted No. 1 overall coming out of Utah. His skill set evolved further this year with a vertical component added to the mix. Smith made deeps throws during his career, but his game was primarily built around precision passing and getting the ball out quickly. This is where he excelled.

The Chiefs found weapons in wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce and rookie running back Kareem Hunt to help Smith become the ultimate distributor. The 33-year-old quarterback was an MVP candidate a month ago after catering to each of his dynamic weapons.

The Kansas City quarterback completed 76.6 percent of his passes for 1,391 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions during the team's 5-0 start.

Life came at Smith fast, though.

During the next five games, Smith's stats dovetailed to a 62.9 completion percentage, 1,283 passing yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

On the surface, those numbers aren't horrible. But he hasn't been nearly as efficient or dynamic. Smith has looked uncomfortable behind a reshuffled offensive line. He hasn't been nearly as accurate and made some terrible throws. The explosive plays just haven't been as prevalent, either.

Yes, Smith is willing to lay it on the line to win. On Sunday, he showed how much far he'll go during the final drive that led to the Chiefs' game-tying field goal and forced overtime, per NFL.com:

Aside from an ill-advised interception that would have killed Kansas City's final regulation drive if not for being called back due to pass interference, Smith completed five of six passes—including a 32-yard strike to Kelce.

Smith gave his team a chance to win, but it wasn't enough. The fact Kansas City had to battle for every yard is an indictment of the offense's current direction.

The Giants pass defense ranked 30th overall entering in the contest. The disappointing group surrendered 267.8 passing yards on average. Smith managed 230 yards and threw a pair of interceptions, which tripled his season total, per NFL Research:

Two factors make Smith's lackluster performance even more damning.

First, the Chiefs came off their bye week and provided a level of play bordering on lethargic. Second, Smith couldn't even replicate the success lesser quarterbacks experienced against the Giants in recent weeks, as Arrowhead Pride's Ryan Hall noted:

Not producing to the level of Jared Goff, Russell Wilson or even Philip Rivers isn't a crime. Not being able to play as well as Trevor Siemian or C.J. Beathard is a travesty.

Smith's regressed to his mean. Recent history shows it's not enough. In some ways, the organization has alluded to the fact it's preparing for life without Smith. The Chiefs made a bold decision in April by trading up 17 slots in the first round to acquire Mahomes.

The Texas Tech product is a pure gunslinger. Mahomes is everything Smith isn't. The 6'2" 225-pound quarterback displayed rare arm talent during his collegiate career. Scouts still viewed Mahomes as a project despite throwing for 5,052 yards and 41 touchdowns as a junior. His game isn't based on precision or efficiency. He's a big-play machine and can make throws other quarterbacks can't. WBIW-TV's Chris Lilly provided a preseason example:

The Chiefs may follow through on drafting Mahomes by moving past Smith this offseason. The franchise can save $17 million against the salary cap with his release, per Spotrac.

Why wait to make a move?

Kansas City isn't winning with Smith, and he's not playing well. Yes, Mahomes is going to make mistakes, but his penchant for big plays is exactly what the Chiefs lack.

A counter-argument is easily made: The Chiefs are 6-4, still lead the AFC West by two games and Mahomes isn't ready.

So what?

Reid and his offensive staff are counted among the league's most creative play-callers, and the group can build around the rookie's multifaceted skill set. Plus, the move wouldn't be made based just on this season. Mahomes is the face of the franchise; he just hasn't taken the field yet.

"I mean, you don't get any days off," Mahomes said on Nov. 9, per the Kansas City Star's Terez A. Paylor. "You do, but at quarterback, you don't. So you're watching film every single day, trying to make sure you're prepared and ready. That's something you hear about, you talk about, but until you're here, you don’t actually know what it’s like."

There's no reason to keep an ace off the mound in favor of a long-term reliever. Since the Chiefs do have some wiggle room in the AFC West, the option to bring the veteran off the bench exists if the first-year signal-caller struggles.

Smith is who he is. The Chiefs knew what they had at the position and chose to make a big move and acquire Mahomes. Being bold to acquire a special talent doesn't stop once the draft is complete.

After four losses in five games, there's no reason for the Chiefs to remain conservative. It's time to unleash Mahomes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndica...tinue.amp.html

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I cant believe there are numb nuts who are dumb enough to try to make the case against Mahomes after watching Smith play the last 4 weeks and in years past.

You seriously have to be a special kind of stupid at this point to try to claim we hav ea better shot of winning anything with Smith.

We may not win anything with Mahomes but at least he would see the field and get prepared for next year. And I am convinced we woudl win as much or more with Mahomes at this point.

We aren't winning anything with Smith so this is a waste of time moving forward with him playing QB. To think otherwise is just ignorant pig headed dumbassery.

Its that simple.

If I can see this, and I have given Smith every benefit for MOST of his time in KC, I dont see how anyone cant see this.

My only concern with Mahomes at this point is injury. He has the tendency to leave the pocket to make big plays ala Aaron Rodgers.

And like Aaron Rodgers he leaves himself open to get sidewalk slammed.

He seemed uncomfortable in the pocket in the preseason and at times would roll out when it wasn't needed.

With that said, start him.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

And this was pointed to as his best game wasn't it??

Seattle was his worst preseason game and I think everyone would agree with that

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

• completion 1st d - Rolled left, threw accurate pass running to his left
• dink to LOS - Checkdown
• scramble and sack instead of TIA - Well scrambled away from pressure. Should have ended the play better.
• short throw behind receiver - Inaccurate on timing route. To be expected from a guy who's had a few weeks to work with receivers.
• scramble, throw it away at receivers back - Again, escapes pressure. Very smart decision to throw the ball away.
• long bomb OOB - A throw Alex does not make. Pass rush is immediately in his face and he decides to overthrow the ball to see if the receiver can catch up for it. Very smart play under pressure.
• too high over mifddle, lucky not picked off - not a good pass
• 1st down over middle - Incredible pocket presence. Again, rolling left throws a dart. Alex would have rolled right into the sack.
• close to 1st - Good slant route. This is a throw Alex would make.
• scramble for short gainand 1st d - another Alex like play
• Missed this one - Beautiful out route thrown at the sticks. Quick decision, a sideline throw that Alex is usually afraid to make
• long bomb to endzone, way overthrown - This looked more like a throwaway to me than an overthrow. Had a guy in triple coverage. These are the types of plays you'd expect he'll make less of as he learns to read defenses
• too high pass to LOS - checkdown
• Another miss- Escapes pressure rolling left, throws first round dart on the
• ball thrown too far OOB no TD - What are you talking about? Beautiful back shoulder throw. Travis does a terrible job getting his feet down
• fumble for a loss
• low pass, no completion - Thrown under immediate duress. A low pass but not a good safe "throwaway" with a chance for completion
• dink 3yd pass, immediately covered - designed screen pass

Now, he did have a few nice plays, but what about the majority of that is any better than what AS does on average. Not talking about his outliers, but AVERAGE.

I'll take your word for it as against Seattle's starters. But the misses in the video weren't drops, they were bad throws IMO.

And this was pointed to as his best game wasn't it??

Edited your post to show my commentary. There's more to those plays than you described.

First of all, what did he do different from Alex Smith? Proved multiple times he has better pocket presence. Showed ability multiple times to throw on the run, even more impressive that he did it rolling left. Multiple times threw at the sticks instead of the checkdown. Gives his receivers a chance when he throws the ball away (we saw that multiple times in the preseason). In the face of pressure, he still tries to make a throw with none of those passes looking at all risky.

And by the way, I don't think this was the game he showed what he can do. This was a game where he showed what he had learned. In previous games, he was absolutely outstanding using his mobility not to run, even pressure situations the took a miracle to get out of. This was a game where he replaced some of that freelancing with very smart throwaway balls and where he looks to get rid of the ball much, much faster.

There is no way you can possibly think that Mahomes didn't flash this preseason that he has a hell of a lot more to offer than Smith. Of course it's a risk. But I don't think it is because there isn't any more upside to Smith. We know exactly what he is.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

My only concern with Mahomes at this point is injury. He has the tendency to leave the pocket to make big plays ala Aaron Rodgers.

And like Aaron Rodgers he leaves himself open to get sidewalk slammed.

He seemed uncomfortable in the pocket in the preseason and at times would roll out when it wasn't needed.

With that said, start him.

He is going to play that way regardless of when he starts. He may learn after taking some hits, or maybe not. Either way week 11 this year or week 1 next year likely wont change that risk. Hell you could argue if he gets hurt this year we still have Smith and maybe he learns something from it. Next year we wont have Smith.

Cant make decisions based on fear of injury.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

My only concern with Mahomes at this point is injury. He has the tendency to leave the pocket to make big plays ala Aaron Rodgers.

And like Aaron Rodgers he leaves himself open to get sidewalk slammed.

He seemed uncomfortable in the pocket in the preseason and at times would roll out when it wasn't needed.

With that said, start him.

That was my concern as well. Except more Big Ben and McNabb for now. The hope is he matures into Rodgers or Favre (but that still means taking a lot of hits). I don't think he looked uncomfortable in the pocket, though he does tend to roll out more than he needs to, but he does have confidence in throwing on the run and he should. I don't have an issue with him rolling out. More of when he waits until the last minute to unload the ball knowing he'll get whacked and a few runs where he tried to get extra yards instead of just running out of bounds.

That being said, the Seattle game was a sign that he was learning fast. Made a lot of really smart throwaways that in previous games he would have stuck in there to take the hit.

[mikeyis4dcats.]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Edited your post to show my commentary. There's more to those plays than you described.

First of all, what did he do different from Alex Smith? Proved multiple times he has better pocket presence. Showed ability multiple times to throw on the run, even more impressive that he did it rolling left. Multiple times threw at the sticks instead of the checkdown. Gives his receivers a chance when he throws the ball away (we saw that multiple times in the preseason). In the face of pressure, he still tries to make a throw with none of those passes looking at all risky.

And by the way, I don't think this was the game he showed what he can do. This was a game where he showed what he had learned. In previous games, he was absolutely outstanding using his mobility not to run, even pressure situations the took a miracle to get out of. This was a game where he replaced some of that freelancing with very smart throwaway balls and where he looks to get rid of the ball much, much faster.

There is no way you can possibly think that Mahomes didn't flash this preseason that he has a hell of a lot more to offer than Smith. Of course it's a risk. But I don't think it is because there isn't any more upside to Smith. We know exactly what he is.

there's the hypocrisy though. Many of those plays are what AS would have done too, checkdown, coverage and protection issues.

Mahomes does have spark, and potential. He is the future. The FUTURE. He's still very inexperienced and needs more time IMO. ANd many who are way smarter than me (us) seem to agree. We do far more damage to him rolling him out there this season. This isn't college, he hasn't been a multi-year backup.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

there's the hypocrisy though. Many of those plays are what AS would have done too, checkdown, coverage and protection issues.

Mahomes does have spark, and potential. He is the future. The FUTURE. He's still very inexperienced and needs more time IMO. ANd many who are way smarter than me (us) seem to agree. We do far more damage to him rolling him out there this season. This isn't college, he hasn't been a multi-year backup.

Watson seemed to do ok.

[Priest31kc]

As a Mizzou fan that is going through the depression of Michael Porter Jr's injury right now, I could REALLY REALLY use a big pick me up with the announcement that Patrick Mahomes will make his first NFL start Sunday...But because #Chiefs that won't happen.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

there's the hypocrisy though. Many of those plays are what AS would have done too, checkdown, coverage and protection issues.

Mahomes does have spark, and potential. He is the future. The FUTURE. He's still very inexperienced and needs more time IMO. ANd many who are way smarter than me (us) seem to agree. We do far more damage to him rolling him out there this season. This isn't college, he hasn't been a multi-year backup.

I don't mind him learning from the bench. He has a lot to work on in terms of footwork and technique, and I think the more he learns the more the game will slow down.

That being said, I think Alex has been limiting enough that I completely disagree that Mahomes doesn't have an excellent chance of upgrading us immediately. Half of those Seattle plays are throws Alex doesn't make. His understanding of his pocket, his willingness to throw deep (which would do wonders for stretching out that cover 2 that's killing us), his ability to throw on the run. Those are big pieces that we're missing right now.

And I don't take much stock in what the organization is saying right now about his readiness. I think the organization is politically playing this out so they can let Alex go next year politely. More importantly, I think they're going to push hard to trade Alex Smith and it does them no favors if teams think the Chiefs are 100% committed to starting Mahomes next year.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

He is going to play that way regardless of when he starts. He may learn after taking some hits, or maybe not. Either way week 11 this year or week 1 next year likely wont change that risk. Hell you could argue if he gets hurt this year we still have Smith and maybe he learns something from it. Next year we wont have Smith.

Cant make decisions based on fear of injury.

Right, but i'd hope that he's developed some comfort in the pocket so he doesn't feel the need to wiggle free most plays. We don't want him rolling out for no reason, and he did that several times in the Preseason.

I understand that that will always be part of his game, but ideally we'd want to him to do that when necessary, not just because.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

there's the hypocrisy though. Many of those plays are what AS would have done too, checkdown, coverage and protection issues.

Mahomes does have spark, and potential. He is the future. The FUTURE. He's still very inexperienced and needs more time IMO. ANd many who are way smarter than me (us) seem to agree. We do far more damage to him rolling him out there this season. This isn't college, he hasn't been a multi-year backup.

Just jumping into this conversation here, and i agree, he's not perfect. He throws high at times, short at others. Checks down some times, which there's nothing wrong with.

And that's all to be expected. Everything you mentioned describes any given QB in the NFL.

What separates the good from the great are in fact those outliers. Those plays they make....being play makers.

Mahomes does it. THAT'S why he'll be better than Smith.

Not because he's going to make every read. He won't.

Not because he won't over/under throw a receiver. He will.

But because he has the talent and the fortitude to compensate for those mistakes.

That GIF of Alex missing DAT shows everything that's wrong with Smith. Smith looked right at DAT as he broke free. A difficult window? Sure. But an NFL QB has to make that throw.

Alex considered it and pulled it down instead. Mahomes lets that one rip.

[mikeyis4dcats.]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Watson seemed to do ok.

hows that working for him?

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

hows that working for him?

Uhmm....lol wut?

[mikeyis4dcats.]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Uhmm....lol wut?

he's done for the season with an ACL right?

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

he's done for the season with an ACL right?

That he got in practice, dude. Him playing in no way resulted in an injury...unless you're going to argue that simply participating as an NFL player can lead to injury, therefore...enshrine Mahomes in a protective bubble and shelf him for 20 years until his value goes up?