Jones vs. 1st Rounder + $20m

[wachashi]

Signing Jones comes with more risk than if he's tagged/traded.

For KC to get value from a Jones signing, he's got to perform at an elite level for multiple years and he's got to stay healthy. If he doesn't do those things, it can spell disaster for the Chiefs. On the other hand, tagging/trading Jones for fair compensation gives KC flexibility, allowing them to invest in multiple positions, including the offensive line which is absolutely crucial in protecting our greatest asset.

KC doesn't have to draft a superstar to make tagging/trading worth it. They just have to draft adequately and make smart, low-cost free agent signings. You minimize risk by tagging/trading Jones. If KC had a crystal ball telling them that Jones will stay healthy for the next three years, and he'll perform just like he did this year when he was healthy, then yeah, you'd sign him. But there are no guarantees and the Chiefs cannot afford to take the risk of Jones under performing on his contract.