Jones vs. 1st Rounder + $20m

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

This reasoning is emotional, and therefor I do not trust it.

I know you all WANT to keep Jones, and it might happen. If it does, great. I will be happy to cheer for him. But make no mistake, it is not the most prudent move.

In a game massively affected by injury, you are tying a TON of capital up in the health of one man. If you trade for a 1st and two 3rds (a la Jared Allen), plus have $15M to spend on free agents (after paying your new 1st rounder), then you might potentially have 5 or 6 players who can START for this team. That is a significant diversification of risk, as well as a significant diversification of potential.

If you sign Jones, you are guaranteed one elite player. If you trade him, you have the potential to have an elite player at multiple positions.

You’re trading an elite player for what basically amounts to lottery tickets.

[wachashi]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

You’re trading an elite player for what basically amounts to lottery tickets.

A long-term deal with Jones is a bet on his continued elite output and health. A "lottery ticket," as you put it, but one with significant downside risk.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by wachashi

A long-term deal with Jones is a bet on his continued elite output and health. A "lottery ticket," as you put it, but one with significant downside risk.

Then you can make the same argument for Mahomes.

[wachashi]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Then you can make the same argument for Mahomes.

Yep, I'm not saying you can't. Mahomes is our lottery ticket. It's the ticket with the best upside in the league, and the one that every other GM would love to have their hands on. But the future is not guaranteed.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Then you can make the same argument for Mahomes.

Except elite QBs impact the game far more and take less physical punishment than a DT, which prolongs their careers.

Mahomes could lose some athleticism and still be an elite QB. We’ve seen guys like Brady and Brees stay effective for 15+ years.

DT’s are essentially in a car wreck every Sunday. Betting on a DT’s health is much riskier.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Except elite QBs impact the game far more and take less physical punishment than a DT, which prolongs their careers.

Mahomes could lose some athleticism and still be an elite QB. We’ve seen guys like Brady and Brees stay effective for 15+ years.

DT’s are essentially in a car wreck every Sunday. Betting on a DT’s health is much riskier.

Every player that signs a large contract is a risk.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Every player that signs a large contract is a risk.

Well obviously, but the risk of injury is far less with a QB than a DT. If your QB is breaking down due to physical punishment, it’s probably a failure of the entire organization. DTs will break down far earlier.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Well obviously, but the risk of injury is far less with a QB than a DT. If your QB is breaking down due to physical punishment, it’s probably a failure of the entire organization. DTs will break down far earlier.

That, and DTs decline rapidly as they age.

Jones will be 26 next season, so.....

https://socalledfantasyexperts.com/a...yers-dl-lb-db/

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Every player that signs a large contract is a risk.

FYP

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Except elite QBs impact the game far more and take less physical punishment than a DT, which prolongs their careers.

Mahomes could lose some athleticism and still be an elite QB. We’ve seen guys like Brady and Brees stay effective for 15+ years.

DT’s are essentially in a car wreck every Sunday. Betting on a DT’s health is much riskier.

It is not like the Chiefs will be signing him to deal that will still be paying out when Jones is in the twilight of his career. He will barely be 30 when this one is up. The guy is in his prime years and is on a HOF trajectory so far.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

It is not like the Chiefs will be signing him to deal that will still be paying out when Jones is in the twilight of his career. He will barely be 30 when this one is up. The guy is in his prime years and is on a HOF trajectory so far.

I agree. My comment was in response to saying that signing Mahomes is a lottery ticket like signing Jones.

Yes, both are risks. But the risk is a lot higher with a DT.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by wachashi

A long-term deal with Jones is a bet on his continued elite output and health. A "lottery ticket," as you put it, but one with significant downside risk.

That’s not an intelligent appraisal of the situation.

Chris Jones has established a trend of not only being dominant at one of the most important parts of the sport (interior rush) but he has shown to be coachable, as well.

He talked specifically about that before and after the super bowl. He talked about sack nation and how sometimes you have to change things up for the team. He specifically mentioned not always needing to go for the sack and being able to effect the passing game in other ways while staying responsible. He went out and did exactly that. He stayed in his gap and never allowed the 49ers running game to blow right by him while batting down a bunch of passes and got his hands up on many others that prevented Garapolo from getting the ball to targets over the middle (like Kittle).

The other part of the equation is an elite talent like Jones matched with an elite coach like Daly and an elite edge rusher like Clark. Jones has a real chance at his career ending up with a gold jacket if he keeps improving and taking to the coaching of Daly. I can absolutely see him being the most impactful DL in the league in the next 2 years if he stays on his current trajectory as he’s just now entering his prime.

Let’s say we get a haul for Jones like we got for Jared Allen. Unless we manage those resources PERFECTLY we will not get the same impact out of the draft picks as we could get from Jones if he simply continues the trajectory he has already proven to be able to be dominant at.

Chris is also perfectly built to dominate in this specific system that can best utilize his unique movement skills. He’s perfect to be able to play anywhere on the DL and kill it with Twists and others that require his quickness and size to be dominant.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That’s not an intelligent appraisal of the situation.

Chris Jones has established a trend of not only being dominant at one of the most important parts of the sport (interior rush) but he has shown to be coachable, as well.

He talked specifically about that before and after the super bowl. He talked about sack nation and how sometimes you have to change things up for the team. He specifically mentioned not always needing to go for the sack and being able to effect the passing game in other ways while staying responsible. He went out and did exactly that. He stayed in his gap and never allowed the 49ers running game to blow right by him while batting down a bunch of passes and got his hands up on many others that prevented Garapolo from getting the ball to targets over the middle (like Kittle).

The other part of the equation is an elite talent like Jones matched with an elite coach like Daly and an elite edge rusher like Clark. Jones has a real chance at his career ending up with a gold jacket if he keeps improving and taking to the coaching of Daly. I can absolutely see him being the most impactful DL in the league in the next 2 years if he stays on his current trajectory as he’s just now entering his prime.

Let’s say we get a haul for Jones like we got for Jared Allen. Unless we manage those resources PERFECTLY we will not get the same impact out of the draft picks as we could get from Jones if he simply continues the trajectory he has already proven to be able to be dominant at.

Chris is also perfectly built to dominate in this specific system that can best utilize his unique movement skills. He’s perfect to be able to play anywhere on the DL and kill it with Twists and others that require his quickness and size to be dominant.

Very well said! The big knock on Jones around here was his run-gap responsibilities. IMO he worked hard on that and made huge improvements to become more of a team player. He is perfect for this system so that makes him even more valuable.

I want to win Championships. Jones gives us the best odds for that.