***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Hammock Parties]

holy **** man

#NYC pic.twitter.com/V0xHM0lQdj

— ekakaoni (@ekakaoni) March 4, 2020

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by wazu

Your 50X number is in the ballpark. Influenza is something like .1% death rate. COVID-19 is looking more like 3%-6.5%. It also seems to be exponentially worse for old people, so for younger people it would be much lower.



There's a possibility that death rate won't be that bad long term. It sounds like most of the dead in china are elderly men who smoked most of their lives. Smoking rates are lower in other countries. That said, so far we don't have any evidence in the U.S. that the death rate will be lower.

It's certainly likely that this virus is higher than the flu, but there's no way in hell the actual rate is 3% or higher.

[BWillie]

So Ive done the research now to see how this effects people 18 to 50 compared to older people.

If Covid-19 infected as many people under 50 as the flu every year, then roughly 18,000 more would die each year.

It appears Covid-19 is about 5x as deadly to people under 50 as the regular flu. But the flu isn't really deadly for us to begin with. So there is almost no reason to care about the population in this age group. When you consider that this age group still accounts for some middle aged ppl with underlying conditions like hypertension, diabetes then one can conclude that the flu or covid-19 is almost of no concern to a normal healthy adult, almost at all.

Now it appears Covid-19 is 15x to 20x as lethal to those 65 years+ than the regular flu, which is already pretty devasting to begin with for that population. ESPECIALLY for those over 80.

My grandma got the regular flu at 90, then got pneumonia and died. Its always been a big concern for the elderly and covid 19 is exponentially worse unfortunately. Makes you wonder why nursing homes even exist to put old ppl in close proximity to each other. One would think with a dwindling immune system you should avoid close contact with ppl.

Conclusion, make all of the old ppl stay inside and watch Matlock and Wheel of Fortune. Be completely indifferent if anyone under 50 gets it unless they have an underlying condition. And it has already been established that for some reason Covid-19 not only is very mild on children but they don't even contract it at near the rate of the rest of the population.

Based on CDC flu numbers compared to known mortality rate of different age groups of Covid19: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

[wazu]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's certainly likely that this virus is higher than the flu, but there's no way in hell the actual rate is 3% or higher.

So far for known cases with outcomes, the mortality rate is 6.2%.

Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

[Chiefspants]

Wazu you doing okay bud?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by wazu

So far for known cases with outcomes, the mortality rate is 6.2%.

Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

The mortality rate is essentially 0% (since that would be dividing deaths by the total population). The case fatality rate may be 6.2% if all you're doing is taking raw numbers and doing basic math, but that's...not how it works.

It will likely be months before anyone has enough data to do an accurate calculation. South Korea has the best data of anyone right now, and they came up with 0.5%.

[DaFace]

If the basic premise of "we don't know how many people were infected but never detected" isn't clear enough, here's an article about it.

https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading...19-death-rates

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by wazu

Your 50X number is in the ballpark. Influenza is something like .1% death rate. COVID-19 is looking more like 3%-6.5%. It also seems to be exponentially worse for old people, so for younger people it would be much lower.

There's a possibility that death rate won't be that bad long term. It sounds like most of the dead in china are elderly men who smoked most of their lives. Smoking rates are lower in other countries. That said, so far we don't have any evidence in the U.S. that the death rate will be lower.

The smoking rate is a reason for hoping the US wont get hit as hard. The US doesnt have as much air pollution either.

I wonder if the surprisingly low fatality rate for children is they havent yet been exposed to decades of modern air pollution.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

The smoking rate is a reason for hoping the US wont get hit as hard. The US doesnt have as much air pollution either.

I wonder if the surprisingly low fatality rate for children is they havent yet been exposed to decades of modern air pollution.

The life expectancy between China and the US is within about 1.5 years of each other.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by DaFace

If the basic premise of "we don't know how many people were infected but never detected" isn't clear enough, here's an article about it.

https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading...19-death-rates

Okay, but if you’re sick enough to be diagnosed, at this point it’s 6.2%.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by wazu

Okay, but if you’re sick enough to be diagnosed, at this point it’s 6.2%.

If you are using only USA's death rate, it is not sustainable. It ran rampant in a Washington nursing home hitting tons of ppl in their 70s and 80s.

It may be higher than what China is reporting, though. That is what worries me.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by BWillie

If you are using only USA's death rate, it is not sustainable. It ran rampant in a Washington nursing home hitting tons of ppl in their 70s and 80s.

It may be higher than what China is reporting, though. That is what worries me.

I’m using worldwide reported numbers. So actually mostly China.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by wazu

Okay, but if you’re sick enough to be diagnosed, at this point it’s 6.2%.

That's fine as long as you acknowledge that 1) it's based on very incomplete, very sketchy data and 2) it's in no way comparable to the 0.1% for flu, which includes all of the people who don't seek treatment.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The life expectancy between China and the US is within about 1.5 years of each other.

That doesn't mean the lungs of Chinese who are 65+ are in as good of shape as Americans of similar age. Chinese men are dying from a lifetime of smoking 2 packs a day.

American men are dying from being overweight, out of shape, alcohol and opiods.

I'm not claiming Americans will have a dramatically lower fatality rate. Just that there is some reason for hope.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by DaFace

That's fine as long as you acknowledge that 1) it's based on very incomplete, very sketchy data and 2) it's in no way comparable to the 0.1% for flu, which includes all of the people who don't seek treatment.

Acknowledged.