Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

About 40% below what the S&P is currently marked at.

you're a ****ing dumbass

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

you're a ****ing dumbass

Literally studied the market in the process of earning a master's degree.


So no. No I'm not.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I'm sure I'm missing something here, but correct my logic. Let's say that this has a mortality rate of 1 percent or 3 percent or 6 percent. Isn't the long-term impact on the economy 1 or 3 or 6 percent? And we're down 20 percent in the market now?

The market highs were built on optimistic models of future growth without disruption, imo.

More importantly, the market prices in anticipated future growth, and the factors are multiplicative over time. You would have to develop models assuming the loss of 1-3% production and consumption, plus the loss of production from quarantines and sick workers. Net present value of cash flows are drastically reduced given supply chain disruption, changes in consumer behavior and reduced growth forecasts. What is the difference in the net present value of an investment with an 8% return and a 5% return, all other things equal? Then factor in changes to profit margin, reduced volume due to supply chain reduction? It also makes overhead a much bigger deal, turning profitable companies unprofitable.

The multiplicative nature of the factors leaves a lot of room for downward movement, Imo. But I am a pessimist by nature, so maybe factor that into your decision making process.

[ReynardMuldrake]

I have to stop checking my Robinhood account. It only goes up when I'm not looking at it.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by philfree

I just pulled the trigger and bought back in to 13 stocks. I'm not trying to make a quick buck I'm going to try and hold these stocks for the long hall. I put $1,500.00 in each and plan to add to those holdings as I go forward ending up with about $5,000.00 invested in each. This portfolio will consist of AMD, Chipotle, DocuSign, DDD, LULU, Micron, NVDA, RAMBUS, T, TSN, TSLA, V and Zillow.

Now all you guys and your friends buy the shit up!

**** Chipotle. I boycotted those fools after they went organic/all natural what the **** ever.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Literally studied the market in the process of earning a master's degree.


So no. No I'm not.

You basing that on technicals? Fibonacci? Elliot wave? Wat makes you think that?

[Hammock Parties]

discuss thinks the market is his dick

it never goes up

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

You basing that on technicals? Fibonacci? Elliot wave? Wat makes you think that?

Technical analysis is the modern day equivalent of reading tea leaves.

[RunKC]

I think the bottom will be around the last week of this month or early April.

Depending on the effect it has here, I think it’s fair to say the drop will be around 30-35%

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

About 40% below what the S&P is currently marked at.

I think it will be another 20-25% from current levels.
What Dr. Fauci said today puts us in uncharted waters so who knows.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Technical analysis is the modern day equivalent of reading tea leaves.

I'm going to be wiping my ass with tea leaves if the local methican americans don't quit hoarding TP!

I'm pulling this from an old timer who is aging fast but has traded with more than I will probably ever even accumulate. 10% of the market was an emotional "bet the come". That went up in smoke. Deal in a 10% correction for global panic sales. Next we get the 10% of actual financial corrections due to physical losses. He then said, where are we in this mess and how far off are those 10% guesses?

Who knows.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

**** Chipotle. I boycotted those fools after they went organic/all natural what the **** ever.

I didn't buy the stock because I eat there I bought it because other people do and the stock tends to go up. I have eaten Chipotle exactly once. I'd go to a Qdoba before I'd go to a Chipotle.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Technical analysis is the modern day equivalent of reading tea leaves.

Not disagreeing here. Just wondering where you came up with an additional 60% down. Technicals would be the easiest way to get there. You trying to apply historical P/E ratios to GDP or what?

I haven’t paid attention to shit, but I highly doubt you’re in high company expecting that big of a drop.

Just wondering where you’re getting that target from.

Originally Posted by philfree

I didn't buy the stock because I eat there I bought it because other people do and the stock tends to go up. I have eaten Chipotle exactly once. I'd go to a Qdoba before I'd go to a Chipotle.

Still out.

If my stock purchase raises their stock .0001 basis points and executives get any money out of stock options I don’t think I could live with myself. **** those bitches.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Not disagreeing here. Just wondering where you came up with an additional 60% down. Technicals would be the easiest way to get there. You trying to apply historical P/E ratios to GDP or what?

I haven’t paid attention to shit, but I highly doubt you’re in high company expecting that big of a drop.

Just wondering where you’re getting that target from.



Still out.

If my stock purchase raises their stock .0001 basis points and executives get any money out of stock options I don’t think I could live with myself. **** those bitches.

The S&P 500 dropped ~45% in the period of time that encompassed the death of Bear in March '08 and then when it started to continuously go up after something like March 3, 2009.

We have yet to have our 'death of Bear Stearns' moment but it will precede a second Great Recession.

Job losses will take hold, there'll be some bankruptcies once enough bullshit called on the auto and student loan market. Young people aren't buying houses and this won't get better.

Then you start thinking about new political realities which will not be market friendly..

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The S&P 500 dropped ~45% in the period of time that encompassed the death of Bear in March '08 and then when it started to continuously go up after something like March 3, 2009.

We have yet to have our 'death of Bear Stearns' moment but it will precede a second Great Recession.

Job losses will take hold, there'll be some bankruptcies once enough bullshit called on the auto and student loan market. Young people aren't buying houses and this won't get better.

Then you start thinking about new political realities which will not be market friendly..

There is a long way to go before that.