***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigRedChief]

The most recent people who died in Italy, got the first symptoms 8 days ago and died today.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

Coronavirus: Italy has highest daily COVID-19 deaths as 475 die https://t.co/oJ0F9Hxhx6

— Sky News (@SkyNews) March 18, 2020

Italy uses draconian mandatory quarantine/shutdown measures with minimal success.

Meanwhile South Korea focused on testing and strategically targeting their mitigation actions with much greater success.

Quote from an infectious disease specialist in South Korea:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...et-its-success

South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University.

South Korea was able to successfully contain the virus in a measured way without destroying their economy and democratic way of life.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by The Iron Chief

Pretty horrible week for me on this subject honestly.
Some of you might have read the story I told in the Virus Tales thread about my son getting out of his Dorm in New Rochelle the night before the National guard moved in.

My son apparently had the virus approx 2 weeks ago now.
A doctor looked at many students and staff at IONA pronouncing the ones that should self quarantine..no tests on hand.
My son was told to self quarantine in his room.
So after it had passed my son was symptom free for three days prior to coming home we all felt we should keep him on a leash for another week.
Its not easy to completely self quarantine your 20 yr old son in his room.
So there was a small amount of interaction.

All is fine until about 4 days ago when I noticed a light cough & my breathing became a bit shallow.
I ask my wife and other son does anybody have a cough or anything?
They did not.
But here I sit the guy in the house that never gets sick feeling a bit shitty hard to breathe..
So I begin to wonder if the news is right & my son would've been contagious for at least 7 days after being home & like I said we did keep our distance.

Then my cough turned into aches..then laziness.. I'm not a Napper...but nap I did.
My son rattled off in order how the symptoms came when they left which ones stayed the longest.
It happened just as he said.

So will my wife(55) get it or my youngest is the question & I could be contagious for 10 days After the symptoms pass.

I wanted to add like you hear on TV a lot... I'm not feeling THAT bad..the Aches suck..cough is a little annoying.

So my Dad passed a few months back & my mom(78) is alone in a house in the boon docks & we don't dare put in a visit or help at the moment.
& yes we find people if she needs something but still.
The rest of my family lives hours away.

Then there is the economy.
Like many I'm not even going to look up any stocks or my 401k I'm dumb founded how much I've lost as so many have.
Yeah a yr from now it could be back..we'll see.

Then there is my work manager of a Red lobster.
The decision to go to take out only is idiotic.
I'm not saying I disagree with Shutting down but to go to takeout.
My store had to decide who to layoff who to schedule.
Now were learning there just isn't enough takeout to bring in anyone(hourlies). As we suspected would be the case.
So this morning we put out a text/Email letting everyone know not to report in.
It'll be unemployment for most.. the 64 million dollar question..is this going to be for one month or four?
One? Thats fine lets get on with this and see what happens.
Four to six months and I'll be more than worried for a whole lot of people across the Nation/World.

Then there is looking at how the different people are handling this.
Not good not good at all.
My area is ridiculous.. I walk my dog usually at night 8 ish..and lately it felt like it was midnight.
No traffic..nobody walking...as were walking my boys and I'll try to spot curtains or blinds being peeked thru.as they look at us like zombies....its hysteria.
Again I'm not a the virus is fake guy...but seeing what its reduced so many too ..it blows my mind.

Again I ramble..but if not here then where?

My wife kicked me out of the garage and told me to go lay the **** down & rest drink fluids etc.. so here I sit and type..self quarantined in a county practically shutdown.

Oh & both my kids are home finishing their school yrs on the computers.

I saw something that said people could still be contagious for up to a month after symptoms at the outer end. 2 weeks seemed like the most likely window for most cases.

That said - by far the biggest problem is living in the house with someone. If they are remotely contagious it sounds almost impossible not to give it to everyone in the house. That's been the vector of like 80% of the spread - family clusters. China and S. Korea are immediately isolating anyone who tests positive. No self-isolation.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

The most recent people who died in Italy, got the first symptoms 8 days ago and died today.

5 day average for symptom onset. So that's 13 days. Italy locked down the whole country Friday a week ago I believe - 12 days ago.

But also with everyone locked inside, there's probably some lag time for them to give it to everyone else in the house.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

While true, we're not seeing many serious cases, while Italy is being overwhelmed by them. So it stands to reason that we still have far fewer cases, even if the difference probably isn't as great as the raw numbers make it seem.

The argument people make is we are going to have as many cases as Italy. We might. Probably will. The point I have tried to make from the start and as you have eluded to as well and as the raw numbers support, the outcome is much different in this country compared to Italy at this point.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yeah, depends on where you live. $65K is lower middle class here. Go an hour away towards Disney, 80% are getting minimum wage. So your location matters. Not just the amount of your salary.

Don't you live in Tampa? Doesn't seem like a massive difference. You need to make 66,774 to maintain your standard of living should you move from KC to Tampa and made 65,000.

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators...alculator.aspx

Tampa appears to be quite affordable compared to other metro areas.

https://theatlas.com/charts/Hyku8NP5-

While housing is a little more expensive in Tampa, median household income in KC is 66k while it is 54.9k in Tampa area.

https://censusreporter.org/profiles/...ks-metro-area/

https://censusreporter.org/profiles/...fl-metro-area/

A single person making 65k in both places would definitely be middle class to slightly a little higher even because they don't even have a partner income to account for.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Oh no, none of that around here. This is a big pharma only community. Everyone else will be shot on site or harassed forever.

Chill, you're entering DC territory.

[O.city]

IIRC, new cases are trending down in every country that's put these things in place about 14 days after, so Italy should be trending down on new cases.

So we should theoretically peak next weekend? Then hopefully go down.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by O.city

IIRC, new cases are trending down in every country that's put these things in place about 14 days after, so Italy should be trending down on new cases.

So we should theoretically peak next weekend? Then hopefully go down.

Lol. Wishful thinking. I hope you are right but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

[displacedinMN]

Wife said Calif ordered a shelter in place order. Heard from working with people from there.

Any confirmation?

[wazu]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Lol. Wishful thinking. I hope you are right but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

The last 4 days the new case rate for Italy has been flat.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by displacedinMN

Wife said Calif ordered a shelter in place order. Heard from working with people from there.

Any confirmation?

I don't think it's statewide, but they started that in some areas (like San Francisco) yesterday.

[BryanBusby]

Still have a job for today, but sure isn't fun knowing the layoff is coming any day now.

[displacedinMN]

U of Iowa-virtual learning the rest of the semester

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The argument people make is we are going to have as many cases as Italy. We might. Probably will. The point I have tried to make from the start and as you have eluded to as well and as the raw numbers support, the outcome is much different in this country compared to Italy at this point.

Italy is the 5th oldest country in the world. The United States is 61st in median age.

Italy has the 51st highest population density in the world. The United States is ranked 145th in population density.

Italy has a greater % of the higher risk population for COVID-19 and a more limited ability to social distance.