***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

This article isn't behind a paywall

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...id-coronavirus

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday asked Congress for $1 billion in federal funds to support the state’s medical response to the novel coronavirus, which he expects will infect more than half of all Californians.

The state projects that 25.5 million people in California will be infected with the coronavirus over an eight-week period, Newsom said in a letter sent to President Trump on Wednesday requesting the deployment of the USNS Mercy Hospital Ship to the port of Los Angeles through Sept. 1.

It's REALLY hard to figure out where that number could be coming from. It took 3 months to get up to ~250k worldwide...

[jjjayb]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

This article isn't behind a paywall

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...id-coronavirus

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday asked Congress for $1 billion in federal funds to support the state’s medical response to the novel coronavirus, which he expects will infect more than half of all Californians.

The state projects that 25.5 million people in California will be infected with the coronavirus over an eight-week period, Newsom said in a letter sent to President Trump on Wednesday requesting the deployment of the USNS Mercy Hospital Ship to the port of Los Angeles through Sept. 1.

Yes. I read the article. It doesn't give any basis for why the Governor of California thinks there will be 25 million people infected in California within 8 weeks. If half of california will be infected, then it would stand to reason that half the country would be infected. That would be over 150 million infected. Even the flu doesn't have more than 50 million infected in any given year for the entire frigging country. I've not heard ANY experts throw around those types of numbers for how many they are expecting to be infected. So yes. It's a valid question.

But hey, when a state is asking for money from the Federal government, it helps to inflate the numbers a little.

[Frazod]

Originally Posted by wazu

We’d better euthanize all dogs just to be safe. #FlattenTheCurve

You say this in jest, but sadly it's been done before.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Pet_Massacre

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The article does not state how he came to that number.

Newsom’s letter to President Trump cited 126 new cases statewide in the last 24 hours, an increase of 21 percent, and said the case rate has been doubling every four days.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I would like to see what the basis for that statement is. I mean other than Dane says he is right

8 weeks = 56 days
Typical unrestrained rate of doubling approx once every 4 days
Fourteen doubling events

Starting with 1,000 infected:

Day 4= 2,000
Day 8 = 4,000
Day 12 = 8,000
Day 16 = 16,000
Day 20 = 32,000
Day 24 = 64,000
Day 28 = 128,000
Day 32 = 256,000
Day 36 = 512,000
Day 40 = 1,024,000
Day 44 = 2,048,000
Day 48 = 4,096,000
Day 52 = 8,192,000
Day 56 = 16,384,000

There are all kinds of gaps in the data that relate to mortality/etc but this is just math. Could it be slightly lower or higher? Sure. Will mitigation and social distancing and herd immunity stunt the spread? Of course. But, again, the figures cited - while most likely worst case - are not out of the realm of possibility if the spread is left unrestricted and continues to spread at the current rate.

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by Frazod

Just changed out the roll in my bathroom today. Even though I've got plenty, I still kind of felt like Lord Humongous from Road Warrior loading the last of the bullets into his revolver.

Lol I hear ya I still ain’t backing off a handful per swipe

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Newsom's letter:

https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/up...pital-Ship.pdf

Thank you. At least that has some numbers. It sounds like a worst case scenario.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

8 weeks = 56 days
Typical unrestrained rate of doubling approx once every 4 days
Fourteen doubling events

Starting with 1,000 infected:

Day 4= 2,000
Day 8 = 4,000
Day 12 = 8,000
Day 16 = 16,000
Day 20 = 32,000
Day 24 = 64,000
Day 28 = 128,000
Day 32 = 256,000
Day 36 = 512,000
Day 40 = 1,024,000
Day 44 = 2,048,000
Day 48 = 4,096,000
Day 52 = 8,192,000
Day 56 = 16,384,000

There are all kinds of gaps in the data that relate to mortality/etc but this is just math. Could it be slightly lower or higher? Sure. Will mitigation and social distancing and herd immunity stunt the spread? Of course. But, again, the figures cited - while most likely worst case - are not out of the realm of possibility if the spread is left unrestricted.

The problem is that NO ONE worldwide has seen it grow continuously like that. Could it happen? I suppose so. Just seems VERY unlikely to me.

[Kiimo]

Gov. Newsom SHOW YOUR WORK we need to check your math and crosscheck it with this article I read on Salon a month ago

[TLO]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

This article isn't behind a paywall

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...id-coronavirus

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday asked Congress for $1 billion in federal funds to support the state’s medical response to the novel coronavirus, which he expects will infect more than half of all Californians.

The state projects that 25.5 million people in California will be infected with the coronavirus over an eight-week period, Newsom said in a letter sent to President Trump on Wednesday requesting the deployment of the USNS Mercy Hospital Ship to the port of Los Angeles through Sept. 1.

So is the whole "flatten the curve" thing not going to work? What else do we need to be doing?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's REALLY hard to figure out where that number could be coming from. It took 3 months to get up to ~250k worldwide...

Yep. I think it's pretty damn irresponsible for him to throw that number out. It could cause a ****ing societal break down.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's REALLY hard to figure out where that number could be coming from. It took 3 months to get up to ~250k worldwide...

It took 3 months to get to 150K.

It took 6 days to get to 250K.

It will take 4 more days to get to the next 250K.

[jjjayb]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

Gov. Newsom SHOW YOUR WORK we need to check your math and crosscheck it with this article I read on Salon a month ago

What, you all of a sudden believe everything politicians say now? When NOBODY is predicting those kinds of numbers. It would be unprecedented. It would be worse than the Spanish (am I aloud to say that any more?) Flu.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by TLO

So is the whole "flatten the curve" thing not going to work? What else do we need to be doing?

According to the experts we’ll know more in 2 weeks.

[jjjayb]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

It took 3 months to get to 150K.

It took 6 days to get to 250K.

It will take 4 more days to get to the next 250K.

Except we aren't seeing it continue to grow like that. We have seen a patern of it peaking off.