***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Fat Elvis]

Not great news, but better than even worse news....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/probabili...214300326.html

Death rate seems to be a bit lower than originally estimated.....

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

California Governor Gavin Newsom issues state-wide order to stay at home pic.twitter.com/SdvRDokU5T

— Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) March 20, 2020

I’d flee to Nevada/Oregon/Arizona now if was a Californian.

The California governor just put his entire state on virtual house arrest... unreal.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's cute.

California just shut their entire !@#$ing state down when many of their counties have precisely zero cases.

Nobody is going to be anything remotely resembling rational about any of this.

The Governor really doesn't have a choice. Too many people like you out there who continue to downplay the threat this virus has and think this will just magically disappear.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Not great news, but better than even worse news....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/probabili...214300326.html

Death rate seems to be a bit lower than originally estimated.....

The KEY language there isn't 1.4%

It's 1.4% "after developing symptoms" - a phraseology that they use several times in that article.

If the CFR of symptomatic patients is 1.4% and the belief is that there could be 1/2 or more of people who come down with this and don't show outward symptoms...that could drive the overall CFR down significantly.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Not great news, but better than even worse news....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/probabili...214300326.html

Death rate seems to be a bit lower than originally estimated.....

We’re finding there’s so many cases of mild to no symptoms, these numbers are kinda getting hollow to me. I’m no epidemiologist or data guy but it seems this is all coming from unknown data sets.

Basically there may be a huge number of people out there who’ve been exposed, weren’t tested and are now immune. Of course you’d need serology tests to check for antibodies.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

The Governor really doesn't have a choice. Too many people like you out there who continue to downplay the threat this virus has and think this will just magically disappear.

Look - if you could just **** right off, I'd appreciate it.

If what you've taken away from what I've said in this thread is that I'm just some ass who's whistling past the graveyard - like I said, kindly **** right off and put me on ignore.

You're clearly not reading a damn thing I've said anyway and have already admitted as such.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

The Governor really doesn't have a choice. Too many people like you out there who continue to downplay the threat this virus has and think this will just magically disappear.

It’s not that anyone isn’t taking it seriously. It’s jumping to huge measures when you don’t have enough data.

I’m starting to really worry that we’ve went full shotgun approach when a BB gun would have worked

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s not that anyone isn’t taking it seriously. It’s jumping to huge measures when you don’t have enough data.

I’m starting to really worry that we’ve went full shotgun approach when a BB gun would have worked

Which countries did that work in?

[Fish]

Supercomputer SUMMIT is now being used to analyze best chemical approaches. We really are going to science this bitch, it's just going to take a little time...

Repurposing Therapeutics for COVID-19: Supercomputer-Based Docking to the SARS-CoV-2 Viral Spike Protein and Viral Spike Protein-Human ACE2 Interface

The novel Wuhan coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been sequenced, and the virus shares substantial similarity with SARS-CoV. Here, using a computational model of the spike protein (S-protein) of SARS-CoV-2 interacting with the human ACE2 receptor, we make use of the world's most powerful supercomputer, SUMMIT, to enact an ensemble docking virtual high-throughput screening campaign and identify small-molecules which bind to either the isolated Viral S-protein at its host receptor region or to the S protein-human ACE2 interface. We hypothesize the identified small-molecules may be repurposed to limit viral recognition of host cells and/or disrupt host-virus interactions. A ranked list of compounds is given that can be tested experimentally.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Which countries did that work in?

I’m not saying do nothing. I think we’re actually doing what we have to do for the most part.

But everyone keeps expecting these other countries to be Italy. And maybe we end up there, but maybe it’s an outlier due to factors we don’t know ?

[O.city]

The whole test test test thing works, but you actually need to test everyone. Otherwise you’re just sampling from the sick with symptoms so that’s gonna skew your numbers

Or am I way off on this ?

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

The Governor really doesn't have a choice. Too many people like you out there who continue to downplay the threat this virus has and think this will just magically disappear.

California had 10,000+ cases and nearly 700 deaths during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic (which originated in the state, in San Diego)... and yet the state’s citizens were not put on virtual house arrest.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by O.city

I’m not saying do nothing. I think we’re actually doing what we have to do for the most part.

But everyone keeps expecting these other countries to be Italy. And maybe we end up there, but maybe it’s an outlier due to factors we don’t know ?

I think we put too much stock into just the death rate numbers but the biggest focus should be limiting the virus so our entire healthcare system doesn't collapse.

We knew the economy would take a shit after rona hit China hard. Best strategy is to be overly cautious instead of not cautious enough. Anyone who doesnt think the economy wont rebound once we figure out where this is going in the US, combined with alot of workers going back to work, countries re-opening their borders, and Asia opening back up for business the economy will come roaring back.

For now we must do everything we can to get ahead of this. Lockdowns work, give it a few weeks there will be more testing kits and hospital equipment we'll be that much closer to finding medication that can help fight this plus warmer temps and hopefully some folks building an immunity to the virus.

[O.city]

There’s some stuff out there now that 20 to 30 percent of those infected show no symptoms. Well, shit, that’s a pretty frickin large set of numbers that change things quite a bit no?

So you have that many that don’t get tested, the. You have the mild symptoms that don’t get tested.

That’s gonna change the math here

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

I think we put too much stock into just the death rate numbers but the biggest focus should be limiting the virus so our entire healthcare system doesn't collapse.

We knew the economy would take a shit after rona hit China hard. Best strategy is to be overly cautious instead of not cautious enough. Anyone who doesnt think the economy wont rebound once we figure out where this is going in the US, combined with alot of workers going back to work, countries re-opening their borders, and Asia opening back up for business the economy will come roaring back.

For now we must do everything we can to get ahead of this. Lockdowns work, give it a few weeks there will be more testing kits and hospital equipment we'll be that much closer to finding medication that can help fight this plus warmer temps and hopefully some folks building an immunity to the virus.

I agree. I hope atleast