***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Dartgod]

So how exactly does a factory that makes cars transition to making ventilators?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

GM and Ford in White House talks to make ventilators for pandemic patients


General Motors and Ford are in talks with the White House about using vacant car factories to manufacture breathing equipment to help the US tackle the growing number of coronavirus cases, the companies said on Wednesday. The discussions, which echo talks in Britain between the government and carmakers about ventilator production, show the lengths governments are going to in order to secure or manufacture sufficient devices to treat the most seriously ill, as the number of cases continues to balloon worldwide. Some carmakers have questioned whether their plants would be suitable to produce such equipment, given the requirements of medical precision, as well as the need to obtain certification to produce such instruments.

Ford said it stood ready “to help the administration in any way we can . . . We have had preliminary talks with the US government and are looking into the feasibility”. The move comes hours after GM and Ford, along with Fiat Chrysler, announced an unprecedented shutdown of all North American facilities in an effort to contain the spread of the disease.

“[GM chief executive] Mary Barra was in contact with the administration today to provide an update on the decision to suspend production,” said a GM spokesman. “She also indicated GM is working to help find solutions for the nation during this difficult time and has offered to help, and we are already studying how we can potentially support production of medical equipment like ventilators.”

Ms Barra’s statement follows comments by Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, that he had spoken to the heads of two of the big three US carmakers, and they were willing to offer their plants for production of breathing apparatus.

https://www.ft.com/content/d4aa9916-...d-da70cff6e4d3

Isn't there also the issue of having enough people to use them. not sure how long it would take to train nurses/doctors to be able to run them.

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Indeed 10 people and counting have been booted out of the thread so far. Putting that into context, I believe 9 were in the first few days, one yesterday. Overall people have done a great job keeping it non political, and I tip my hat to them, but there are still a few seeing how far they can push their luck. It's a great thread, so if you want to stick around, please play by the rules.

I am trying to add humor. That is all I've got.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

no idea. i work so i dont get all the press conferences...

but i know in the past "small business" is classified as having 100 employees.

not the guy who has 4.

When I think of a "small business", I'm thinking they are local shops with maybe 20 people. Bars, restaurants, auto shops, air con, drywall hangers etc with less than 20 employees.

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

No context, means nothing at all. How do I even know that this is a recent picture?

It was taken yesterday.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

When I think of a "small business", I'm thinking they are local shops with maybe 20 people. Bars, restaurants, auto shops, air con, drywall hangers etc with less than 20 employees.

well then you are once again thinking wrong, at least as far as anything thats happened in the past

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

So how exactly does a factory that makes cars transition to making ventilators?

I'm assuming it's mostly about having the assembly line and labor in place. I can't imagine you could stand it up instantly, but I don't really have a feel for how universal some of the machinery is. If they're using a lot of generic machines and just printing out new molds or whatever, it's possible they could get up and running in a week or two.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by penguinz

It was taken yesterday.

Just so you know,, those are Bradley APCs, not tanks.

M1 Abrams are almost double that size.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Got some new figures from my RT buddies

• We have 7600 licensed Respiratory Therapists in the USA
• Lets say they work 8 hours a day with no days off for 2 months. 3 shifts.
• Around 2533 RT's available in the USA to run vents in our hospitals on any given shift.
• We usually run 3-4 ventilators max at a time. Lets double that to 6-8 vents at a time in this time of crisis.
• In the USA, our capacity to have trained and licsensed staff to run ventilators at the same time is 20,264
• We have more than 20,264 of us needing vents at the same time.... decisions on safety will need to be made by someone.

And in my experience, you don't want about 20% of those RT's running your families ventilator.

Originally Posted by Monticore

Isn't there also the issue of having enough people to use them. not sure how long it would take to train nurses/doctors to be able to run them.

I just posted the numbers one page back.


Doctors cant run them, they are too busy. There is a reason Respiratory Therapists run them and not nurses. You need a lot of specific training to not damage peoples lungs while on the vent.

[Monty]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

The patients are going to possibly get every bug in the hospital. You don't have to work in the medical field to figure out whats going to happen due to a lack of PPE. More people are going to die that didn't need to if we don't get PPE into hospitals.

My DIL is an ER Nurse and is freaking out over the lack of PPE. 3 kids at home ages 5 and under with a 5 month old baby. She's just resigned herself to the fact that it's not if but when she gets infected.

[Monty]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

When I think of a "small business", I'm thinking they are local shops with maybe 20 people. Bars, restaurants, auto shops, air con, drywall hangers etc with less than 20 employees.

Yep, 25 or less is accurate.

[DaFace]

It's kind of funny scrolling through multiple pages of this thread day after day. It's pretty obvious after a couple of weeks of this who the people are that focus on the worst-case scenario (after I while, I just scroll on by because it's always some random niche story that isn't necessarily applicable to the world) and the people who focus on the best-case scenario (who largely don't understand what they're talking about).

[ReynardMuldrake]

I hadn't seen this posted yet.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

well then you are once again thinking wrong, at least as far as anything thats happened in the past

It was just my opinion on what as "small business" is to me. Not what is a legally defined "small business" by the IRS or the Congress.

Originally Posted by Monty

Yep, 25 or less is accurate.

Great minds thinks alike?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Monty

Yep, 25 or less is accurate.

ummm the SBA classifies it as 500 or less...up to 1500 in some industries.


i should know, there have been things ive not qualified for over the years due to not having enough employees