***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigRedChief]

Reported US coronavirus cases:

3/1 89
3/2 105
3/3 125
3/4 159
3/5 227
3/6 331
3/7 444
3/8 564
3/9 728
3/10 1000
3/11 1267
3/12 1645
3/13 2204
3/14 2826
3/15 3505
3/16 4466
3/17 6135
3/18 8760
3/19 13229
3/20 18763
3/21 25740
3/22 34276
3/23 42663
3/24 52976
3/25 65273
Now 82135

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 27, 2020

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by eDave

boob

Tons o' snot

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Death rate is going down, at least for today



Source:

Total reported US coronavirus deaths via @CNN:

3/1: 2
3/2: 6
3/3: 9
3/4: 11
3/5: 12
3/6: 17
3/7: 19
3/8: 21
3/9: 26
3/10: 31
3/11: 38
3/12: 41
3/13: 49
3/14: 58
3/15: 65
3/16: 87
3/17: 111
3/18: 149
3/19: 195
3/20: 263
3/21: 323
3/22: 413
3/23: 541
3/24: 704
3/25: 938
Now: 1,195

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 27, 2020

Shows 1,297 so far via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100 more than the numbers posted by that dude. It was probably accurate as of that tweet... but the day isnt over...

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Another figure to look at (if the sites I am looking at are at all accurate).... we are currently at ~80k active known cases with ~2k serious/critical. That gives us 2.5% as the absolute max for serious/critical cases. It is FAR more likely that we are looking at ~2k serious/critical cases and ~500k-800k active cases since so many go untested/unreported/undetected. In which case the number drops to .4-.25% of all cases end up serious or critical. (I think these numbers are actually WAY WAY too high because I think we have far more infected or infected and recovered than we are imagining)

If the number is .4% and we infected almost everyone, we would have something in the range of 1 million people hospitalized in the US for Covid-19. And there are experts who think we will see 1/4 of those people die? Or are these experts claiming that the 80k detected cases is a somewhat accurate figure reflective of how many total US infections there have been since January or December? That would be absolutely ridiculous and I can't imagine anyone being clueless enough to believe that.

I continue to believe this line of thinking. There are only a few examples where everyone was tracked and the levels of asymptomatic infection were anywhere from 50% of all infected to 80% of all infected.

Short-term it continues to be an issue of not breaking the health care system but the actual death rate is much much lower. It may only be slight magnitude higher than a bad flu season if it weren’t all hitting within such a compressed period of time.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Have you seen the most recent Oxford model? They changed the assumption regarding the rate of severity and showed a model that fit the reality in the UK but was based on it having almost peaked at this point.

That is something I am having a problem reconciling when experts make projections based on us being in the very early phases of this. That assumption seems off to me. We know it spreads ridiculously fast. We know that it was in the wild in the US for AT LEAST 2 months (more likely 3) with little to no mitigation. Not just wishful thinking here, but the revised Oxford model simply makes more sense to me.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnh...0(13).pdf?dl=0

Another issue is with testing. Since we aren't testing for antibodies, we have no clue what the negatives mean. Are those people susceptible to the virus or people who are now immune?

So models that are based on an earlier time of introduction of the virus to the population combined with a lower fraction of the population that is susceptible to the worst outcomes are able to fit the data and indicate a much faster accumulation of herd immunity. This would be a great outcome. I am skeptical because the models were only allowed to run for the first 15 days after the first death and already by that time the model was showing 50% herd immunity. The reason given for only running the model 15 days was to avoid the influence of social distancing. However, they could run the model beyond the 15 days as a business as usual. That simulation should serve as a "business as usual" upper bound for deaths. If actual deaths, even with social distancing practices invoked, exceeded the "business as usual" upper bound, it would undermine the model.

Still interesting, and somewhat hopeful perspective.

[Chief Roundup]

Man I have the nightly news on, CBS, and they had several nurses and doctors on from NY and they are saying that they are only giving care to those they think can survive. They are saying that they are running out of PPE. It was horrible.

[oaklandhater]

The problem with the US is we have 50 states with all different rules reacting at different times. A uniform set of rules would help. Why hasn’t the US grounded domestic flights yet?

— Jeff Levy (@Jeffrey_Levy) March 27, 2020

We really need a national shutdown like yesterday all the states having their own rules isn't helping any one in the long term.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Another figure to look at (if the sites I am looking at are at all accurate).... we are currently at ~80k active known cases with ~2k serious/critical. That gives us 2.5% as the absolute max for serious/critical cases. It is FAR more likely that we are looking at ~2k serious/critical cases and ~500k-800k active cases since so many go untested/unreported/undetected. In which case the number drops to .4-.25% of all cases end up serious or critical. (I think these numbers are actually WAY WAY too high because I think we have far more infected or infected and recovered than we are imagining)

If the number is .4% and we infected almost everyone, we would have something in the range of 1 million people hospitalized in the US for Covid-19. And there are experts who think we will see 1/4 of those people die? Or are these experts claiming that the 80k detected cases is a somewhat accurate figure reflective of how many total US infections there have been since January or December? That would be absolutely ridiculous and I can't imagine anyone being clueless enough to believe that.

The 500 to 800K cases are heavily weighted to early-stage cases because of the exponential growth of this thing. There is a time lag -- around 7 days -- between an early infection and a serious case. I think your 2.5% serious cases is likely a significant under estimate.

To determine the serious case fraction it would be better to look at a place where they are doing more testing and the epidemic was more mature -- like South Korea.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Man I have the nightly news on, CBS, and they had several nurses and doctors on from NY and they are saying that they are only giving care to those they think can survive. They are saying that they are running out of PPE. It was horrible.

Of course it was horrible. What did you expect to see on the news?

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by loochy

Of course it was horrible. What did you expect to see on the news?

Some bunny rabbits would be nice once in a while

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by loochy

Of course it was horrible. What did you expect to see on the news?

What was horrible is what the Doctors and nurses were saying. Not what the journalists were saying.
Refrigerated trailers to store the dead bodies. Nurses with confirmed Covid-19 being forced to work. Using trash bags as PPE.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Some bunny rabbits would be nice once in a while

[ChiefZilla]

Trump says everyone will be back to working very soon!

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Man I have the nightly news on, CBS, and they had several nurses and doctors on from NY and they are saying that they are only giving care to those they think can survive. They are saying that they are running out of PPE. It was horrible.

I said it was horrible too this am. Shouldn’t be happening in America. Got 2 pages of people telling me I’m Over reacting. Chill out.

It’s the words of the healthcare workers on the front line of fighting this pandemic. Not my opinion or yours.

[LiveSteam]

Where's Snake Plissken when you need him?