***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I'm not sure that is accurate. Let's look at one flu season in the US...

Symptomatic Illness 44,802,629
Medical Visits 20,731,323
Hospitalizations 808,129
Deaths 61,099

Let's pretend the flu is spread out evenly over an entire year (we know better but let's go with that). That would mean 5000+ deaths per month. We obviously aren't close to that in March.

This is not to downplay Covid-19 but to just give perspective.

Well, that looks about right for the next month or two. HOpefully not.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I'm not sure that is accurate. Let's look at one flu season in the US...

Symptomatic Illness 44,802,629
Medical Visits 20,731,323
Hospitalizations 808,129
Deaths 61,099

Let's pretend the flu is spread out evenly over an entire year (we know better but let's go with that). That would mean 5000+ deaths per month. We obviously aren't close to that in March.

This is not to downplay Covid-19 but to just give perspective.

Not trying to create an argument at all but why are we suddenly in such demand for resperators now when they're not in such high demand from the regular flu, Is it just because this flu is attacking the lungs more than the normal flu??

[O.city]

If you look at what i posted earlier, theres already some stuff showing that it works.

I think Italy is probably an outlier (i hope) because of the population and other things at play there in that area.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I'm not sure that is accurate. Let's look at one flu season in the US...

Symptomatic Illness 44,802,629
Medical Visits 20,731,323
Hospitalizations 808,129
Deaths 61,099

Let's pretend the flu is spread out evenly over an entire year (we know better but let's go with that). That would mean 5000+ deaths per month. We obviously aren't close to that in March.

This is not to downplay Covid-19 but to just give perspective.

Don't you dare put context to this or you will be labeled a heretic around here.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Not trying to create an argument at all but why are we suddenly in such demand for resperators now when they're not in such high demand from the regular flu, Is it just because this flu is attacking the lungs more than the normal flu??

The flu is stretched out over about 7 months.

This is all hitting at one time.

[TLO]

I wonder what makes this attack certain people harder than others? Are we just hearing a lot about outlier cases of otherwise young and healthy people? Or is it really just super randomized?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

The people who are making the decisions in this country are the ones that should know all that. And it's pretty obvious they don't.

Don’t make this political!

I’m fine with Trump leaving it to the States.

Some States seem much smarter than others.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Not trying to create an argument at all but why are we suddenly in such demand for resperators now when they're not in such high demand from the regular flu, Is it just because this flu is attacking the lungs more than the normal flu??

It sounds like if you get to the point you need a respirator you're pretty much a goner anyway.

This sucks

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

I wonder what makes this attack certain people harder than others? Are we just hearing a lot about outlier cases of otherwise young and healthy people? Or is it really just super randomized?

Some of that is that it was downplayed so much by the young generation that they (the media) is overplaying some young stories.

If you look at the numbers, it's still extremely rare for young healthy to have issues.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

With a significantly higher CFR.

Recent flu seasons have seen CFRs close to .2, I wouldn't be surprised to see Covid-19 come in around the .2 - .5 range. We won't know accurate numbers for quite awhile (if ever).

[O.city]

My FIL boss was on a vent for a couple days with it. He's off now, improving day by day.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Recent flu seasons have seen CFRs close to .2, I wouldn't be surprised to see Covid-19 come in around the .2 - .5 range. We won't know accurate numbers for quite awhile (if ever).

Wouldn't be surprised based on what?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I wouldn't be surprised to see Covid-19 come in around the .2 - .5 range.

Based on what data?

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Don't you dare put context to this or you will be labeled a heretic around here.

Yeah lets not forget that this has just gotten started and that there is more evidence that this will not be a "winter" season virus only than there is that it will be a "winter" only virus.
Are you a non-believer or think that this is all being way over blown?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by TLO

It sounds like if you get to the point you need a respirator you're pretty much a goner anyway.

This sucks

Not true. Many are getting saved by those.

Just have to make sure you have enough.