***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

This is unreal

Who uses a playground right now? I mean, WTF?

[BigRedChief]

This is what Exponential growth looks like

Reported US coronavirus cases via @CNN:

Four weeks ago: 102
Three weeks ago: 678
Two weeks ago: 4,459
One week ago: 42,663
Right now: 160,377

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 31, 2020

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Who uses a playground right now? I mean, WTF?

My kid has a fever better let her out in public! I thought that was ****ing stupid but instead of apologizing the dumb bitch doubles down.

[ping2000]

Originally Posted by Donger

I didn't even think about hair cuts.

[Hammock Parties]

hope is kindled

[BigRedChief]

Ford to build 50,000 ventilators in 100 days

Ford plans to make as many as 50,000 simple ventilators for coronavirus patients within 100 days and plans to continue producing 30,000 per month after that, the company announced Monday.

The automaker said it will make the ventilators at its Rawsonville Components Plant in Ypsilanti, Michigan. The factory will be staffed by 500 United Auto Workers union members who have volunteered to work on the project, Ford said.

The ventilator is currently being made by Florida-based Airon Corp. and has been licensed by GE Healthcare. Ford (F) has been working with GE Healthcare to help it increase its ventilator output.


The Airon Model A-E ventilator that Ford will produce operates on air pressure alone and requires no electricity. Airon currently makes three of the ventilators per day at its factory in Melbourne, Florida. Ford's plant will produce the ventilators around the clock with three shifts of workers, Ford said, and it will make 7,200 of the devices per week.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Kansas has handled this about as poorly as any state around here. Iowa had locked down restaurants AT LEAST a week prior to KS.

Not true. Kansas was one of most pro-active states regarding Covid-19. It is part of the reason why we've (knock on wood) have been able to flatten the curve as much as we have. Our governor got a lot of flack for the steps she took. By and large, the state (so far) has been spared the worst of it. Most of the cases in KS (roughly 2/3) are in JoCo/Wyandotte/Leavenworth which borders MO (which totally botched their response). The past three days KS has held steady on the number of new cases. Kansas has done, by and large, a pretty outstanding job so far.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Not true. Kansas was one of most pro-active states regarding Covid-19. It is part of the reason why we've (knock on wood) have been able to flatten the curve as much as we have. Our governor got a lot of flack for the steps she took. By and large, the state (so far) has been spared the worst of it. Most of the cases in KS (roughly 2/3) are in JoCo/Wyandotte/Leavenworth which borders MO (which totally botched their response). The past three days KS has held steady on the number of new cases. Kansas has done, by and large, a pretty outstanding job so far.

Yup. Gov. Kelly & Mayor Lucas were some of the first in the region to take the lead against this. I'd have to look but the KC metro area might have been the first to issue a stay in place.

As mentioned earlier the midwest is looking like it could begin to get back here in the next few weeks.

[ghak99]

Middle of nowhere, Missouri.

Women tests positive, the first in the county, but is doing well and is a "non traveling" case. Believes her husband had it prior to her and he believes he got it from work as multiple workers on his shift were recently sick. Of course, they said they'd be contacting anyone the woman recently had close contact with. It's a small town, and multiple cashiers know she went through their line in the last few days. I know one of the cashiers very well, I urged her to take all her vacation days and then quit/retire as she can just get another job to add structure back into her life if she wants after all this blows over.

So, one positive test and at least 5, and probably more like 10, that can be assumed prior to getting to her test results. This is one of the reasons why I only casually watch the test results.

I thought I was going to die earlier this year and didn't even get off the floor once during one of those days. Whatever it was, it wasn't fun. I'd really like them to roll on with serology to see where we're actually at with this thing. I have a feeling a lot of people could be going back to work right now or even volunteering if they have skills or abilities needed somewhere.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Wouldn't that be true only if testing were random? As it is, testing is heavily weighted towards those showing symptoms and even then it's usually reserved for those with severe symptoms. Deaths on the other hand, are not asymptomatic.

Correct me if I am thinking wrong on this.

The assumption of exponential growth is that the rate of appearance of new cases is proportional to the number of existing cases. With respect to testing, if every individual is equally contagious, then my analysis before is correct regardless of who gets tested. It gets more complicated if the most symptomatic people (that are more likely to get tested) are also the most contagious. However, even if this is true, as you increase testing you are going to keep testing the most symptomatic with each increase in availability of testing. With this protocol, I think (gut feel, I haven't done the analysis) the math holds up until the point you are testing asymptomatic people. And we ain't any where close to doing that.

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Who uses a playground right now? I mean, WTF?

My buddy was running in nkc and saw parents letting kids play on the equipment. It wasn't sealed off. I really don't understand why people aren't getting how serious this is. Locally I've seen equipment sealed off with police tape.

[SuperBowl4]

Dr. Creep predicted this Coronavirus to happen in 2020 back in 2013

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

hope is kindled

At the current growth rate (16%) the number of cases would still double every five days. Once that curve reaches near zero, if we have adequate testing to quickly identify new cases, and if we can do comprehensive contact tracking, and if we had a social safety net to isolate the infected and quarantine the exposed, we could open most things up. This is where South Korea is. We could have gatherings up to 100 or so, but still no sports, concerts or other mass gatherings. Deviating from any of this, we will be right back where we are now.

The above situation would change with some combination of the following:
a) vaccine
b) evidence of significant herd immunity with limited mutations
c) a therapeutic that greatly reduced viral load

[BossChief]

Almost a million people in NY rode the subway today.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...iders.amp.html

I understand the difficulties it presents shutting down the subway system, but if they don’t (or at minimum limiting it to only health care and grocery workers) NY is goi g to get exponentially worse.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

The assumption of exponential growth is that the rate of appearance of new cases is proportional to the number of existing cases. With respect to testing, if every individual is equally contagious, then my analysis before is correct regardless of who gets tested. It gets more complicated if the most symptomatic people (that are more likely to get tested) are also the most contagious. However, even if this is true, as you increase testing you are going to keep testing the most symptomatic with each increase in availability of testing. With this protocol, I think (gut feel, I haven't done the analysis) the math holds up until the point you are testing asymptomatic people. And we ain't any where close to doing that.

Got it. Regardless of "actual" number of infected you can still show a trend if the testing criteria stays relatively consistent. The only problem I see is that testing started with a small portion of the most severe cases and now is expanding to less and less severe as testing capacity increases.

Switching gears slightly, how do you feel about serology testing? We obviously can't test everyone but I would love to see communities across the US at least do some random sampling. I have a gut feeling that this disease is far more widespread then anyone suspects

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