***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And again, why should we care at that point?

If they have to update their model every 3 days to get within a factor of 4, then they're just sticking their head out the window to tell us its raining.

They've already updated the thing once and it's still a trainwreck. There's something inherently flawed in their modeling. Don't 'update' it - scrap it.

This is akin to the efforts of Ford in the 80s to 'refresh' the failed 2nd gen mustang. What it needed was a clean-sheet rebuild.

That model is clearly built on a faulty premise. I don't know what it is because none of these people will release their source data (and I wouldn't know what to do with it anyway), but it's clearly a problem and we're still using it to make decisions.

Throw the damn thing out and start over.

So you're saying things are looking better than the models, not worse?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It's 0.17, but it's near the upper bound of the 95% CI (2 sd). He's also not accounting for there being more cases which would push the CFR down or the estimate being near the lower bound of the 95% CI.

For his numbers to be true the number of cases would have to be exactly on the estimate and the CFR would have to be two standard deviations above the estimate.

Look at you talking percentages and standard deviations!! Getting me all warm and tingly inside

[BleedingRed]

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Serology of this virus will be interesting. Alot of people were getting sick with symptoms like Corona from December through February.

If we find out in the end that millions have already had it and gotten over it, then there should be hell to pay.

I've said it from the start that I believe this would be more LIKE (that exactly) like a flu season total than a SARS or MERS. But again cat is out of the bag, but the numbers I'm seeing are encouraging.

People keep freaking about about the number of cases... And are missing the fact that millions have tested negative as well. 8/10 test come back negative right? Isn't that a good thing?

Even if people have antibodies they don't know how long that protection will last, the flu shot for example is only good for up to 6 months.

the false negative rates right now are all over the map could be as high as 30% and they are just testing what is in your nasal cavity which might not completely reflect what is in your system.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

So you're saying things are looking better than the models, not worse?

Off topic a bit, recoveries jumped another 1,400 today so far.

Now, what I have a problem with about all these projections and models is people are trying to have it both ways.

On one hand they are using the numbers we have to extrapolate a very scary scenario.

On the other hand they say "millions of people have probably had this and we don't know cause they weren't tested or some other reason".

So it at least seems that when they want the scary scenario they go with argument A and ignore argument B. But when they want to bitch about testing then suddenly argument B comes into play.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Even if people have antibodies they don't know how long that protection will last, the flu shot for example is only good for up to 6 months.

the false negative rates right now are all over the map could be as high as 30% and they are just testing what is in your nasal cavity which might not completely reflect what is in your system.

Sure but my point would be more along the lines of finding out the true mortality rate.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hmmm....

Tomahawk posted a picture of the figures 2-3 days ago, didn't he? If you could find that in this monster of a thread, you might be able to extrapolate the number of ICU patients from then to now and see a trend one direction or another.

Though I wouldn't expect to see that worm having turned just yet. Those seem to take an extra 4-6 days to resolve or an 'ordinary' admission one direction or another.

Lol I think I’ll decline trying to find that in here.

But IMO that’s where the logjam will happen. That’s the real numbers they need to be worried about.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Serology of this virus will be interesting. Alot of people were getting sick with symptoms like Corona from December through February.

If we find out in the end that millions have already had it and gotten over it, then there should be hell to pay.

I've said it from the start that I believe this would be more LIKE (that exactly) like a flu season total than a SARS or MERS. But again cat is out of the bag, but the numbers I'm seeing are encouraging.

People keep freaking about about the number of cases... And are missing the fact that millions have tested negative as well. 8/10 test come back negative right? Isn't that a good thing?

But up to 30% of those negatives aren’t correct...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TLO

So you're saying things are looking better than the models, not worse?

I mean, they're looking better than THAT model. At least in terms of questions surrounding capacity.

[petegz28]

All this sudden concern over people wearing masks tells me they know a shit ton of people either have this and are asymptomatic or otherwise immune. We know these masks are more to keep you from spreading it as opposed to prevent getting it

[F150]

may have been posted, sorry if so...

Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

“Congratulations to MIGAL [The Galilee Research Institute] on this exciting breakthrough,” Akunis said. “I am confident there will be further rapid progress, enabling us to provide a needed response to the grave global COVID-19 threat,” Akunis said, referring to the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.



For the past four years, a team of MIGAL scientists has been developing a vaccine against infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which causes a bronchial disease affecting poultry. The effectiveness of the vaccine has been proven in preclinical trials carried out at the Veterinary Institute.

MIGAL is located in the Galilee.

“Our basic concept was to develop the technology and not specifically a vaccine for this kind or that kind of virus,” said Dr. Chen Katz, MIGAL’s biotechnology group leader. “The scientific framework for the vaccine is based on a new protein expression vector, which forms and secretes a chimeric soluble protein that delivers the viral antigen into mucosal tissues by self-activated endocytosis, causing the body to form antibodies against the virus.”

Endocytosis is a cellular process in which substances are brought into a cell by surrounding the material with cell membrane, forming a vesicle containing the ingested material.
In preclinical trials, the team demonstrated that the oral vaccination induces high levels of specific anti-IBV antibodies, Katz said.

“Let’s call it pure luck,” he said. “We decided to choose coronavirus as a model for our system just as a proof of concept for our technology.”

But after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time, Katz said.

“All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence,” he said. “We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus.”

MIGAL would be responsible for developing the new vaccine, but it would then have to go through a regulatory process, including clinical trials and large-scale production, Katz said.
Akunis said he has instructed his ministry’s director-general to fast-track all approval processes with the goal of bringing the human vaccine to market as quickly as possible.
“Given the urgent global need for a human coronavirus vaccine, we are doing everything we can to accelerate development,” MIGAL CEO David Zigdon said. The vaccine could “achieve safety approval in 90 days,” he said.

It will be an oral vaccine, making it particularly accessible to the general public, Zigdon said.
“We are currently in intensive discussions with potential partners that can help accelerate the in-human trials phase and expedite completion of final-product development and regulatory activities,” he said.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE...vaccine-619101

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Serology of this virus will be interesting. Alot of people were getting sick with symptoms like Corona from December through February.

If we find out in the end that millions have already had it and gotten over it, then there should be hell to pay.

I've said it from the start that I believe this would be more LIKE (that exactly) like a flu season total than a SARS or MERS. But again cat is out of the bag, but the numbers I'm seeing are encouraging.

People keep freaking about about the number of cases... And are missing the fact that millions have tested negative as well. 8/10 test come back negative right? Isn't that a good thing?

Supposedly now 1/3 of those cases are false negatives

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sure but my point would be more along the lines of finding out the true mortality rate.

Mortality is important but hospitalization, long term health effects I think all come into play when they make some of these decisions.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

All this sudden concern over people wearing masks tells me they know a shit ton of people either have this and are asymptomatic or otherwise immune. We know these masks are more to keep you from spreading it as opposed to prevent getting it

Masks don't do jack shit...

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It's 0.17, but it's near the upper bound of the 95% CI (2 sd). He's also not accounting for there being more cases which would push the CFR down or the estimate being near the lower bound of the 95% CI.

For his numbers to be true the number of cases would have to be exactly on the estimate and the CFR would have to be two standard deviations above the estimate.

Nice try. Standard douchebag Hamas walk back. So, your post calling me a liar has now become a post saying that although it is entirely possible that a bad flu season can have a fatality rate in the .16% range it isn't likely.

Originally Posted by AustinChief

reports are showing fatality rates for people under 50 to be equivalent to a bad flu season,

Originally Posted by TLO

Is this true?

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

No.

You just can't help being a total **** can you?