***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Bill Gates suggested that we might be able to move to a mail-in test kind of like when you do a cheek swab for ancestry DNA tests and the like. Scale is still an issue, but that'd move it forward much more quickly.

And surely nobody would end up with a huge DNA database...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Bill Gates suggested that we might be able to move to a mail-in test kind of like when you do a cheek swab for ancestry DNA tests and the like. Scale is still an issue, but that'd move it forward much more quickly.

That's the disconnect we started with, virtually from day 1.

When Trump says "anyone can get tested..." he was only half wrong. There WERE massive amounts of test kits, but they were being withheld because we had nothing resembling the ability to provide meaningful results to meaningful numbers.

So yeah, Bill Gates (sigh) is suggesting a solid path - but it's also a useless suggestion because it says NOTHING about our ability to process those results. Or the fact that you'd probably need to get one of those things once a month for it to matter at all - because being healthy on 4/6 says nothing about where you'll be on 5/6.

You say 'scale is still an issue' but the bottom line is that scale has been THE issue the entire time and there's no reason to believe it's clearly a solvable one. At least not while we still have an N of 345+ million of uninfected people who's bodies have no natural immunity to the thing. That N has to come down substantially for any attempts at a mass testing protocol to be useful. Then you're working with numbers that are closer to being truly scaleable.

[Pants]

I firmly believe that the measures put in place have paid dividends.

I know the economy is suffering tremendously and that shit sucks because it literally affects EVERYONE.

However, I feel like if we went with the BIG_DADDY model, we would be dealing with some apocalyptic shit. This thing is just too weird in every bad way.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Bill Gates suggested that we might be able to move to a mail-in test kind of like when you do a cheek swab for ancestry DNA tests and the like. Scale is still an issue, but that'd move it forward much more quickly.

I would say privacy is an issue as well.

[O.city]

I think the issue with the models is we’re finding out there is some natural innate immunity to this thing. Also the asymptomatic carriers and such.

The at home test would have to be serology tests anyway.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

I firmly believe that the measure put in place have paid dividend.

I know the economy is suffering tremendously and that shit sucks because it literally affects EVERYONE.

However, I feel like if we went with the BIG_DADDY model, we would be dealing with some apocalyptic shit. This thing is just too weird in every bad way.

And as has been said, we'll never know, because we did act. And be fully prepared for those people to have "See!? I told you it wasn't going to be that bad!" reaction.

[Demonpenz]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

And surely nobody would end up with a huge DNA database...

Bob Dole opens dna test *Says here I am half german half looking out a cornfield with Stevie Ray*

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by Donger

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that new hospitalizations, ICU admissions and daily intubations are all down for the state.

"Those are all good signs," the governor said."

He added that those numbers, "would suggest a possible flattening of the curve."

Here were the number of new hospitalizations in New York over the past three days that the governor reported today:

Friday, April 3: 1,095
Saturday, April 4: 574
Sunday, April 5: 358

Thats excellent news.

[BigCatDaddy]

I told you it wasnt going to be that bad.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Then your discussion becomes the definition of 'capacity', then. And the supply issue doesn't seem to be working itself out anyway, despite the fact that we seem to have a lot of PPE in various places that we simply aren't getting to the places that need it. Time doesn't seem likely to solve that (as a nationwide lockdown instead of an organic spread has anyplace that HAS spare equipment holding onto it like grim death).

Moreover, we have little evidence yet that medical providers are being hit inordinately hard right now due to a lack of PPE. The situation on the ground appears to be that things aren't ideal, but they also aren't critical. Yes, some healthcare providers are contracting it, but compare their rates to transit workers or retail workers and they're not out of line (especially when compared to the rates of exposure).

They're pushing equipment right to the edge of its functional envelope, but the results thus far aren't that they're not being protected at all because of that. They're using every inch of runway in most cases, but there's still little indication that planes are driving off the edge. If outcomes have been worse because of these shortages, it's a damn small amount. Which again gets back to the definition of capacity - isn't that consideration baked into the cake already?

The models of bed capacity are based upon occupancy only. Bed capacity isn't functional capacity where people are receiving adequate care. Hospitals also plan for surge scenarios (mass casualty incidents, etc.) to ensure that there is always true flex built into the system to sustain such events.

Regarding healthcare workers: 14 percent of those infected in Spain as of last week were healthcare professionals, around 3000 of the reported cases in China were in healthcare, and at least 200 in NYC were sick (from a NYT article on 3/30). That's a lot of infections, and moving it up to true 100% capacity would have made only increased the probability of additional infections further.

Also, if you put less innate strain on the system, you give the suppliers more time to replenish: PPE, pharmaceuticals, etc.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think the issue with the models is we’re finding out there is some natural innate immunity to this thing. Also the asymptomatic carriers and such.

The at home test would have to be serology tests anyway.

And if you take the test and you're still no showing antibodies....what now?

You get to stay home indefinitely? Or is there some number of positive tests where we just push the 'endemic' button and move forward?

There just aren't any simple answers here. Yes, we took steps that have almost certainly helped significantly in keeping up front cases law. And as I said when Cuomo was holding fire (and then when he actually pulled the trigger), I thought NY handled this almost perfectly. They're such a unique and bizarre animal that they simply could not just try to 'stamp it out' because it would accomplish nothing there apart from making the eventual secondary spike worse.

Ideally they pegged this thing and in so doing, have created enough buffer that when things re-open, some natural immunity will decrease carriers and renewed spread will be slower and more organic. But that's exactly why it's so critical to time it right and not just assume that more immediate is better.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I told you it wasnt going to be that bad.

I wouldn’t spike the ball in the first quarter here yet

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

And as has been said, we'll never know, because we did act. And be fully prepared for those people to have "See!? I told you it wasn't going to be that bad!" reaction.

At first, I was pissed at Laura Kelly for taking the drastic step of shutting the schools down so freaking early but now I see she was actually paying attention and doing the right thing. That's a good leader.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And if you take the test and you're still no showing antibodies....what now?

You get to stay home indefinitely? Or is there some number of positive tests where we just push the 'endemic' button and move forward?

There just aren't any simple answers here. Yes, we took steps that have almost certainly helped significantly in keeping up front cases law. And as I said when Cuomo was holding fire (and then when he actually pulled the trigger), I thought NY handled this almost perfectly. They're such a unique and bizarre animal that they simply could not just try to 'stamp it out' because it would accomplish nothing there apart from making the eventual secondary spike worse.

Ideally they pegged this thing and in so doing, have created enough buffer that when things re-open, some natural immunity will decrease carriers and renewed spread will be slower and more organic. But that's exactly why it's so critical to time it right and not just assume that more immediate is better.

If you don’t have antibodies and you wanna risk it I think that should be your choice. Maybe you get it maybe you don’t, but it would allow specifically ya healthcare workers the ability to know how diligent we need to be with ourselves

The problem with the immunity thing is we just don’t know how far it is. It maybe is widespread and enough that we’re immune

I doubt it but It’s possible

You need to start randomly sampling to find out

['Hamas' Jenkins]

How about we just have enough patience to see if this really is the peak. And if it is the peak, from there we have enough patience to coast down the other side of the peak until we put out the first to a great extent. And from there, we can work much harder on isolating and contact tracing any new cases that pop up as we gradually open up with greater social distancing and use of PPE in public.

Patience. This is NYC getting to and over the peak, hopefully. It's not every region in the country.