***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

**** everyone but me sounds harsh. That's fine. Sometimes reality is harsh.

But when one makes arguments in favor of continuing a lockdown because they're worried they or their family may get sick, well that's a "**** everyone but me" argument as well.

I don't know about that. Spend 5 minutes talking to any medical expert, I think for a lot people the lockdown is the exact opposite, trying to protect you from getting sick and creating a huge mess.

[swifty32661]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

My first inclination is to seriously doubt those numbers because damn near nothing in this country is that one sided. I'd have to ask you to show your work/sources before even considering it to argue against.

Secondly, every decision we make is a selfish decision. Whether its to stay on lockdown to protect the elderly in your family because you're afforded the luxury of that being your primary concern, or wanting to open up because figuring out how to feed your family to the point of relying on Food banks and churches (essentially, allowing your fear to force a family into poverty and homelessness btw) to eat is too stressful and uncertain.

You have your reasons. That guy has his reasons. Your reasons aren't more concerning to him than his own and vice versa.

Blah sorry. The "well i need to protect my elderly" arguments drive me nuts.

EVERYONE has something/someone they are looking to protect.

Nice to see some common sense on this thread. Thanks for posting this.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

This is all false actually I don't believe any of what you claim, but coming from a guy who thinks the mortality rate is 18% I understand your problem with comprehension.


What I do believe is there is a point where the cure is worse than the disease and we are rapidly getting there.

You don't read well. I never said the CFR was 18%. I said the death rate of reported cases is 18%, which is true.

In fact, I've always maintained that the CFR was much lower than the death rate of reported cases. I just always found it hilarious that you guys kept trying to come up with CFR by taking total deaths dividing by REPORTED cases (without even taking to account cases that haven't reached a recovery or death yet) and thinking EUREKA!!! I've come up with the CFR.

It appears you still do not understand the error of your ways.

[swifty32661]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

This

This times a million.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Seriously, the virus isn't going anywhere and a vaccine is probably 50/50 at best. We flattened the curve as we were told, the balancing point is here... It's not black and white, it's very gray... If you can't see the toll a Depression would have on the US, let along the World, then there is no convincing you as you believe Covid-19 deaths are worth saving more than economic induced deaths around the World, most likely in numbers that Dwarf this virus.

That's exactly the problem. We have flattened the curve but it is not going down. If you open before it starts going down, you are playing with fire.

You can't shut down forever, but the curve is not going downhill. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. You open this thing back up and it spikes, you are going to do far, far more damage to the economy that what's happening right now. There's going to be no safety net to save the million of people who go under.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by jdubya

I think you let the citizens decide. Open up schools again, let all businesses open, let weddings commence and funerals and church services. Our civic leaders can suggest safe practices and social distancing and of course if folks feel uncomfortable that is their prerogative and they can do what they are comfortable doing or not doing. The reason for flattening the curve was to slow the rate of spread as to not overwhelm facilities.....OK, we did it. Now 2 weeks has turned into 8 weeks or longer and economically we are dangerously close to irreparable harm...

Lets not forget how many Hospitals are laying off employees btw.

We were worried about not overwhelming our medical facilities and yet a local hospital in San Diego (a county of over 9 million) just laid off 300 people....and that's happening across the country.

I mean...it's not adding up.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DaFace

What's your feel on where the "acceptable level" of deaths is for this situation?

It'll get dangerously close to the dumb "x people die from y every year", but.... if we're not overrunning the hospitals or having it run rampant through the front lines, I do think we have to test the waters, so to speak.... and in many parts of the country, we're probably overdue for it.

The short term goal can't be to eradicate it forever, yet the alternative answers are quite messy.

OTOH, pretty sure I've known a few people who have gotten it.... and reading OTWP's story should scare anyone at least a little, so WTF do any of us know, really.

[DaFace]

I guess my pessimism is just continuing to grow because so many countries around the world are beating this thing, and the U.S. isn't anywhere close. Yet in the face of that, we're getting impatient and moving on as if we were in the "winners" group when we've barely even reached the "flattening" point.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by tk13

That's exactly the problem. We have flattened the curve but it is not going down. If you open before it starts going down, you are playing with fire.

You can't shut down forever, but the curve is not going downhill. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. You open this thing back up and it spikes, you are going to do far, far more damage to the economy that what's happening right now. There's going to be no safety net to save the million of people who go under.

Nationally, no, it isn't. But some states are and have met the 10 to 14 day downward trajectory.

But I agree, opening up a state that is seeing continued growth is playing with fire. Like willingly running into a house with a fire that is growing.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by tk13

That's exactly the problem. We have flattened the curve but it is not going down. If you open before it starts going down, you are playing with fire.

You can't shut down forever, but the curve is not going downhill. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. You open this thing back up and it spikes, you are going to do far, far more damage to the economy that what's happening right now. There's going to be no safety net to save the million of people who go under.

Most hospitals here in the SF Bay Area are so low on patients they are sending doctors and nurses home on furlows.....hospitals are bleeding money due to no patients

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by tk13

That's exactly the problem. We have flattened the curve but it is not going down. If you open before it starts going down, you are playing with fire.

You can't shut down forever, but the curve is not going downhill. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. You open this thing back up and it spikes, you are going to do far, far more damage to the economy that what's happening right now. There's going to be no safety net to save the million of people who go under.

It won't spike near as much as it would have had we not shut down in March-April. The colder, less humid months. The weather will do alot I believe to shield the coronavirus from the ignorant as we are getting pas the cold and flu season, but I do expect Covid-19 cases to spike quite a bit in a few days due to people thinking this is over.

The social distancing enacted was much needed, which is why virtually every country has done so.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BWillie

It won't spike near as much as it would have had we not shut down in March-April. The colder, less humid months. The weather will do alot I believe to shield the coronavirus from the ignorant as we are getting pas the cold and flu season, but I do expect Covid-19 cases to spike quite a bit in a few days due to people thinking this is over.

I don't think we'll see a "spike" so much as we'll see a lack of things getting better. We're just gonna hang out here at ~1500-2500 deaths per day or so for a while.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Lets not forget how many Hospitals are laying off employees btw.

We were worried about not overwhelming our medical facilities and yet a local hospital in San Diego (a county of over 9 million) just laid off 300 people....and that's happening across the country.

I mean...it's not adding up.

I never knew how many people voluntarily go to the hospital to get procedures done... it's pretty crazy.

But yeah, in hindsight at least, I doubt hospitals would cancel all elective surgeries for a month or more again (from my limited knowledge of the situation)... there were so many unknowns though that they pulled the plug on everything that wasn't urgent.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Lets not forget how many Hospitals are laying off employees btw.

We were worried about not overwhelming our medical facilities and yet a local hospital in San Diego (a county of over 9 million) just laid off 300 people....and that's happening across the country.

I mean...it's not adding up.

Yeah, but to be honest, pretty much all those jobs will return when things get back to normal. Part of the reason that is happening is because people are not going to the hospital because they're worried about the virus.

It's like everything else, if you increase consumer confidence that they aren't going to risk catching the virus, things will return to normal. This half and half reopen plan is just going to make all these businesses bleed out slowly because none of them are going to be doing the business they were doing before.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

My first inclination is to seriously doubt those numbers because damn near nothing in this country is that one sided. I'd have to ask you to show your work/sources before even considering it to argue against.

Secondly, every decision we make is a selfish decision. Whether its to stay on lockdown to protect the elderly in your family because you're afforded the luxury of that being your primary concern, or wanting to open up because figuring out how to feed your family to the point of relying on Food banks and churches (essentially, allowing your fear to force a family into poverty and homelessness btw) to eat is too stressful and uncertain.

You have your reasons. That guy has his reasons. Your reasons aren't more concerning to him than his own and vice versa.

Blah sorry. The "well i need to protect my elderly" arguments drive me nuts.

EVERYONE has something/someone they are looking to protect.

Our parents and grandparents scarified for years during WWII and rationed food etc. We have only been doing this a couple of months and people are ready to give up. Yes we can't do this forever but we should be doing it until June at least and to be honest we should have been doing the super lockdown instead of half ass measures.