***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

So a legitimate question I'm looking to have answered.

There's no arguing that the trends in hospitalizations in some areas are troubling.

However we're also seeing increases in daily numbers of positives in a number of states (this has been going on for a while, but we're not seeing huge spikes in hospitalization numbers)

Is this because we are testing much more than we were previously, thus turning up many more positives than we'd have seen before?

Or is the virus just spreading at that much higher rate?

Could be related to testing. Could be related to the age groups being infected. Could be better treatments. In theory, it's possible it could be weakening.

Those are the ones that seem most plausible to me.

[O.city]

Could be a lot of things

Hopefully we’re finding a lot more infections they’re just not as bad and more so if the mild situation.

Kinda makes you wonder though if we’d have been finding these a few months ago as well if testing was at this level.

Just gotta keep hoping the death rate keeps going downward and hospitalizations stay stable.

If we can keep it at that, we’ll be ok

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

So a legitimate question I'm looking to have answered.

There's no arguing that the trends in hospitalizations in some areas are troubling.

However we're also seeing increases in daily numbers of positives in a number of states (this has been going on for a while, but we're not seeing huge spikes in hospitalization numbers)

Is this because we are testing much more than we were previously, thus turning up many more positives than we'd have seen before?

Or is the virus just spreading at that much higher rate?

Texas hospitalizations are increasing quite dramatically. Available beds and ICU beds are decreasing:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...cases/2392525/

[Donger]

Florida's cases are growing rapidly, and testing hasn't really increased:

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/he...d-747d6a14e428

"Hopefully," many of the new cases are younger people, and won't need hospitalization as much as older people.

[lewdog]

New record hospitalizations in AZ today.

[lewdog]

New record hospitalizations in AZ today.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

New record hospitalizations in AZ today.

Originally Posted by lewdog

New record hospitalizations in AZ today.

Damn twice in one day?!?!?!?

[TLO]

258 deaths on Worldomoters so far today.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's not what I said but feel free to keep putting words in my mouth. Even his article used the word "estimated" but again, feel free to ignore that and\or redefine it as well.

Estimation (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable. The value is nonetheless usable because it is derived from the best information available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Estimation (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable. The value is nonetheless usable because it is derived from the best information available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation

It's almost like I said all we can do is estimate and there is no way to know for sure. Oh wait, I did. And you in all your wisdom pretty much reinforced that so I guess a weird thank you is in order. Perhaps you should actually read what I said and not reply to what you think or wished I said. But whatever.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

258 deaths on Worldomoters so far today.

If we can pull a sub-300 number it would be nice.

[Eleazar]

As always, we begin by looking at the scary part right in the eye. 2 days left for this fatality rate (and hospital census, much less admissions) to show ANY form of movement whatsoever...

...before we declare this heavily salted 'rise' in cases to be a mere paper tiger. pic.twitter.com/bGF0opuvmT

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 21, 2020

Once we end this chart - we are going to conclude that our methods of pursuing testing, produced a shop benchmark of 4.0%. This does not mean that 4% of all people are sick (13.2 M persons ill) - it just means that this was what our method of test inclusions served to produce. pic.twitter.com/mJwqvyvF85

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 21, 2020

You will see a lot of people go very quiet this week, as the paper tiger second wave begins to show no teeth, no claws.

Hospitalization, which does not have a significant weekend factor - resumed decline with aggression. pic.twitter.com/T0eNViOxOB

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 21, 2020

Notice the CDC curve hugs the weekend reported line as of late. Which by the way is very close to end of season itself.

US down 17% from last Sat. Braz-Mex-India make up 42% of world fatalities. US no longer leading the pack. pic.twitter.com/ZurHrYfiSw

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 21, 2020

[kgrund]

Following ethical skeptic would do a ton of good for most on this board. Data with some context. Makes a huge difference.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Damn twice in one day?!?!?!?

If you can post incoherent drivel eight times in a day, surely our boy lewdog can point out factual information twice, no?

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Following ethical skeptic would do a ton of good for most on this board. Data with some context. Makes a huge difference.

Yeah, I think a lot of the reporting in the media is hard to glean useful information from. The only thing you can really rely on are hospital beds and ICU beds since those don't have reporting lags and aren't really debatable.