***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

FDA hasn't approved those yet IIRC because they are afraid of false negatives which I understand. The antigen test is shit to and Gov Dewine's tests prove that out.

You'll get false negatives for sure. But that isn't the problem. You can use them more and they're faster.

PCR has a low false negative but the time it takes it's not working.

The antigen test isn't shit.

We are letting perfect be the enemy of good

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I really hope we get some sort of postmortem reflection back on all of this to try and help understand why this is still such a problem. Getting too far into the discussion would just lead to political finger pointing I'm sure, but I honestly don't know what has been such an issue. Lack of coordination? Lack of funding? Simple human errors? The virus is just a pure pain in the ass?

It just seems criminal that we're 6 months into this thing and testing is still a complete cluster.

Bottom line is should not care about past positives. Save them for the history books. All anybody should really care about is how many positives, hospitalizations, and deaths that have occurred in the past week. If something occurred earlier, mark it down for inception-to-date totals, but leave it out of the daily reporting.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Bottom line is should not care about past positives. Save them for the history books. All anybody should really care about is how many positives, hospitalizations, and deaths that have occurred in the past week. If something occurred earlier, mark it down for inception-to-date totals, but leave it out of the daily reporting.

I'd say go out to 14 days as opposed to a week but the rest of your post is spot on.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

The antigen test isn't shit.

Originally Posted by O.city

You'll get false negatives for sure. But that isn't the problem. You can use them more and they're faster.

PCR has a low false negative but the time it takes it's not working.

The antigen test isn't shit.

We are letting perfect be the enemy of good

Maybe shit wasn't the right word but it needs to be much more accurate. I understand the concern the FDA has because a false negative test would give people a false sense of security.

The reported rate of false negative results is as high as 50%,

[O.city]

It's about speed and multiple tests. If you can do it say, daily, you don't worry about the ones you miss as you'll likely catch them the next day etc.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Maybe shit wasn't the right word but it needs to be much more accurate.

Where did you find that 50% number?

[TLO]

I've posted this before but will post it again.


Quidel says its COVID-19 antigen test is now on par with PCR accuracy

https://www.medtechdive.com/news/qui...curacy/581902/

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's about speed and multiple tests. If you can do it say, daily, you don't worry about the ones you miss as you'll likely catch them the next day etc.

Who are you depending on to test them daily?

Originally Posted by TLO

Where did you find that 50% number?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...oo-often-wrong

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Who are you depending on to test them daily?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...oo-often-wrong

May. 22, 2020

[TLO]

Originally Posted by TLO

I've posted this before but will post it again.


Quidel says its COVID-19 antigen test is now on par with PCR accuracy

https://www.medtechdive.com/news/qui...curacy/581902/

July 20, 2020

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Who are you depending on to test them daily?



https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...oo-often-wrong

You can test yourself at home daily with teh paper tests.

Michael Mina has helped alot with it. Go check out his twitter if you want more info, I can't get my twitter to work.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

July 20, 2020

Hope it gets better

DeWine took Quidel Corporation's antigen test at a mobile testing site in a Case Western parking lot, the governor's spokesman Dan Tierney said Friday

Originally Posted by O.city

You can test yourself at home daily with teh paper tests.

Michael Mina has helped alot with it. Go check out his twitter if you want more info, I can't get my twitter to work.

I love your optimism and I would certainly take it

I totally agree we need this and your employer could maybe make you take this prior to going into work or schools could use it for the kids.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by petegz28

As I understand it an N95 allows for exhalation to a point that is not as effective in that aspect. The respirator does not filter out the virus, correct?

Doesn't it depend on whether the N95 has a vent?

Vented ones make exhalation easier but don't filter the out breath.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Doesn't it depend on whether the N95 has a vent?

Vented ones make exhalation easier but don't filter the out breath.

Correct.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Doesn't it depend on whether the N95 has a vent?

Vented ones make exhalation easier but don't filter the out breath.

Those are the ones I am talking about, yes.