***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

How do you explain 3x the death rate as Italy who got hit well before NY?

I'm not sure we know. I'd imagine that population density played a part.

Do you acknowledge that NY has done a really good job of driving down, and keeping down, new cases?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm not sure we know. I'd imagine that population density played a part.

Do you acknowledge that NY has done a really good job of driving down, and keeping down, new cases?

No Donger I think the virus is running its course.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

What does time have to do with reaching HI?

If they were having 100k infections per day, yeah they probably got there fairly quick.

You answered your own question. They peaked right around April 9, after seeing real growth around March 10. They hit 5,000/day halfway.

So, even assuming the actual was 100,000/day for the 30 days, that's 3,000,000 cases. That's 15.8% of the population. I know that you think that's enough to reach HI, and you may end up being right, but I really would be surprised.

[O.city]

Too many places have hit certain levels and immediately come down for there to be a coincidence.

I dont' think that necessarily means they're done by any means though.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

No Donger I think the virus is running its course.

I see. So you think that NY reached HI, and that is why their cases have dropped and stayed very low. Is that correct?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

You answered your own question. They peaked right around April 9, after seeing real growth around March 10. They hit 5,000/day halfway.

So, even assuming the actual was 100,000/day for the 30 days, that's 3,000,000 cases. That's 15.8% of the population. I know that you think that's enough to reach HI, and you may end up being right, but I really would be surprised.

Their serology testing is higher than that even, so paired with our new knowledge apparent that for every seroconvert, there is potentially 2 who had a mild infection that was beaten back by CD4 and 8 cells, we would be alot further along in our ability to keep infections down.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Too many places have hit certain levels and immediately come down for there to be a coincidence.

I dont' think that necessarily means they're done by any means though.

Do you completely dismiss mitigation efforts as having an impact on driving down cases?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Do you completely dismiss mitigation efforts as having an impact on driving down cases?

They will help. I don't think it's effect is very much.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

They will help. I don't think it's effect is very much.

That seems odd, but okay.

I hope you're right about HI. I really am. Does that mean that in places where you think it has been achieved, there will be no "second wave" since it isn't possible?

[Go Royals]

Originally Posted by Donger

It was actually a really good way of saying that after taking it in the ass, New York has demonstrated a successful way to drive down the R0 of this bug.

As a nation, we had a very similar plan. It just wasn't followed.

By taking it in the ass, what you really mean is tons and tons of people died?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Go Royals

By taking it in the ass, what you really mean is tons and tons of people died?

Yes. Their total number of dead and per capita are relatively awful.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Go Royals

By taking it in the ass, what you really mean is tons and tons of people died?

Only 3.5X the national average by population, no biggie.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

That seems odd, but okay.

I hope you're right about HI. I really am. Does that mean that in places where you think it has been achieved, there will be no "second wave" since it isn't possible?

It's still possible there would be outbreaks, but theoretically, there would be enough of a break to keep from there being a true wave.

I think if there wasn't some kind of immunity helping, we would already be seeing second waves in places that were hit hard as they relax some of the restrictions.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's still possible there would be outbreaks, but theoretically, there would be enough of a break to keep from there being a true wave.

I think if there wasn't some kind of immunity helping, we would already be seeing second waves in places that were hit hard as they relax some of the restrictions.

That makes sense, thanks. Without importing new people, that seems to be logical.

Have you reviewed NY's re-opening plan?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

That makes sense, thanks. Without importing new people, that seems to be logical.

Have you reviewed NY's re-opening plan?

I haven't looked too much at it. I assume they're going along pretty slow.