***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I know all about that. You are correct. But we also know people who are counted as Covid dead because they tested positive on PCR test. Many states have been doing death certificate matching, looking for more to add as Covid casualties.

Prove that.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Prove that.

PHOENIX – Arizona health authorities reported 172 new coronavirus deaths Thursday, the most in a single day, although 78 of them were identified through death certificate matching.

Arizona Department of Health Services also reported 2,525 new cases, bringing the state’s documented totals to 170,798 COVID-19 infections and 3,626 fatalities.

https://ktar.com/story/3448321/arizo...cate-matching/

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Dinger hasn't left his house in 4 months

Wait till he learns there are other viruses way more scary than this one out there!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

PHOENIX – Arizona health authorities reported 172 new coronavirus deaths Thursday, the most in a single day, although 78 of them were identified through death certificate matching.

Arizona Department of Health Services also reported 2,525 new cases, bringing the state’s documented totals to 170,798 COVID-19 infections and 3,626 fatalities.

https://ktar.com/story/3448321/arizo...cate-matching/

Thanks. And how many of the 300,000 dead do you think that applies to?

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Thanks. And how many of the 300,000 dead do you think that applies to?

I have no idea.

@RIHEALTH explains how a sprained ankle is counted as a Covid hospitalization in Rhode Island. The number of hospitalizations is used to justify keeping business closed, forbidding people to work, disallowing children from attending school, & extending phase 1 of the shutdown. pic.twitter.com/CUcV88OREi

— PryTo (@PryTo5) May 18, 2020

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

Hospitalizations follow increases in positive cases and deaths follow hospitalizations.

This has been the trend all along.

Its not remotely close to linear trend over time though.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Conspiracy guy?

You sound moronic. You're just babbling instead of processing information.

Originally Posted by DaFace

Debating with tinfoil hats is a fruitless exercise.

Yep.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Its not remotely close to linear trend over time though.

I'd hope not.

But I woudl think we weren't catching nearly as many infections early as we are now so we don't have the full picture.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I have no idea.

That's odd. But I suppose when FUD is your objective, that helps.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd hope not.

But I woudl think we weren't catching nearly as many infections early as we are now so we don't have the full picture.

On a related note have you seen the commercial for Kansas telling everyone to get tested?

But you cant get a test around here unless you have symptoms. Pretty odd.

[MahomesMagic]

Death certificate data: COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death

We set out to determine how many COVID-19 deaths where COVID-19 is the underlying cause and when COVID-19 is not considered as the underlying cause using Public Health England (PHE) weekly reports on excess mortality (published since the week ending 3 July 2020).

This allowed us to address the question of whether COVID-19 is the underlying cause of death when it appears on the death certificate.

What did we find

While we found that roughly one in thirteen (7.8%) deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death, this proportion has risen substantially to 29% (nearly a third) for the last eight weeks of reporting.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/death-...ause-of-death/


This is coming out of Oxford, not lightweight people.

Daniel Howdon is a Senior Research Fellow in Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences. Bio here

Jason Oke is a Senior Statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences and Module Coordinator for Statistical Computing with R and Stata (EBHC Med Stats), and Introduction to Statistics for Health Care Research (EBHC), as part of the Evidence-Based Health Care Programme.

Carl Heneghan is Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Director of Studies for the Evidence-Based Health Care Programme. (Full bio and disclosure statement here)

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Dinger hasn't left his house in 4 months

Inaccurate, and I'm getting on a plane tomorrow.

But then, cases don't matter, right?

Except that every time we see increases in cases, we see increases in hospitalizations and deaths. Weird correlation, eh? Or is it causation?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Death certificate data: COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death

We set out to determine how many COVID-19 deaths where COVID-19 is the underlying cause and when COVID-19 is not considered as the underlying cause using Public Health England (PHE) weekly reports on excess mortality (published since the week ending 3 July 2020).

This allowed us to address the question of whether COVID-19 is the underlying cause of death when it appears on the death certificate.

What did we find

While we found that roughly one in thirteen (7.8%) deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death, this proportion has risen substantially to 29% (nearly a third) for the last eight weeks of reporting.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/death-...ause-of-death/


This is coming out of Oxford, not lightweight people.

Daniel Howdon is a Senior Research Fellow in Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences. Bio here

Jason Oke is a Senior Statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences and Module Coordinator for Statistical Computing with R and Stata (EBHC Med Stats), and Introduction to Statistics for Health Care Research (EBHC), as part of the Evidence-Based Health Care Programme.

Carl Heneghan is Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Director of Studies for the Evidence-Based Health Care Programme. (Full bio and disclosure statement here)

I'd be hesitant to say a MI happening when someone has Covid isn't a Covid death. Thats a tough situation to lay out TBH.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Nothing in your post is accurate

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

On a related note have you seen the commercial for Kansas telling everyone to get tested?

But you cant get a test around here unless you have symptoms. Pretty odd.

States are doing it all differently it seems.