Who are you betting on this weekend?

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by daquix

This doesn't count for Chiefs fans though, right?

Not sure why you would say that. I certainly have never said that, especially about CP. The fact is that most fans tend to look at overall numbers, or total statlines, much as you did when you first came here, when you declared that the Chiefs defense was ranked last against the run last season, when in fact in the last six games of the regular season they had significantly improved their run defense to where they were actually a top-10 run stopping unit from week 11-17. Which they improved upon in the playoffs.

Which I find puzzling when you keep saying that you're studying stats, and no self-respecting stats guy would lean on such general data to analyze current trends. I never majored in stats, but I took several classes in college, and I know better than that. They must be teaching stats differently nowadays.

Originally Posted by daquix

Literally, just now on the radio.

"The Colts defense has struggled down the stretch"

Edit: Looked up the radio guy's comment, and he's right.

They're averaging almost 28 points per game given up over the last 7. And that includes 3 games against teams with 4-12 and 1-15 records.

Prisco even wrote this morning: "The Colts defense has waned in the second half of the season, which has to be a concern facing Josh Allen and the high-flying Buffalo offense. Indianapolis was once the top-ranked defense in the league, but they fell off in a big way in the final six games." https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/p...d-browns-home/

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Yeah, IND has had some injury issues late in the season, including Buckner being out a couple games or something, and one or two of their secondary players dealing with injuries.

However, I believe Buckner will play this weekend, and he's integral to their DL and its ability to get pressure. What he'll actually be able to do is a question though.

Their secondary might be in trouble though. We could see blown coverages and bad communication as their DB unit stands right now.

The most important piece of their defense though is that DL and its ability to rush the passer. If they can do that, they can force Josh to have to be disciplined about how he QBs vs. pressure. They'd also have to make sure they take away Diggs of course, but if they can do it with some consistency that could be a problem for Allen, since he hasn't shown that he can deal with that situation at a high level.

Also, I'm pretty sure Prisco made an error in his math. But for this conversation I don't think we need to dig into that.