***Official 2021 STL Cardinals Thread***

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Not apples to apples.

You had several top prospects already playing at a high level. Giving up 1 of 6 top prospects that were already playing at Wrigley to win a WS for the first time in 100+ years was a move any team would have made.

Gorman is the only player we have that could possibly be at a Bryant/Baez/Rizzo level. We need more of those, not trade away the only one we have currently.

Isn't/wasnt Carlson a higher rated prospect?

I don't think Arenado is going to hang around through 2 opt outs hoping a guy in AA is the difference maker. He might stick around this offseason on the promise that the Cardinals make moves because this FA is pretty loaded, but they better actually make the moves.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Isn't/wasnt Carlson a higher rated prospect?

I don't think Arenado is going to hang around through 2 opt outs hoping a guy in AA is the difference maker. He might stick around this offseason on the promise that the Cardinals make moves because this FA is pretty loaded, but they better actually make the moves.

Yes, Carlson has an All-Star ceiling too but he doesnt look to be a basher.


I've heard that there is not a 2nd year opt-out. There is only the one this year. The MLB PA wanted a 2nd year. But, who knows if thats true? Regardless, if you have talent, and your not happy, opt-out or not, you can get yourself traded in MLB.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yes, Carlson has an All-Star ceiling too but he doesnt look to be a basher.


I've heard that there is not a 2nd year opt-out. There is only the one this year. The MLB PA wanted a 2nd year. But, who knows if thats true? Regardless, if you have talent, and your not happy, opt-out or not, you can get yourself traded in MLB.

He had only one opt out. He agreed to waive his NTC to be traded to the Cardinals and in return the Cardinals had to agree to give him a second opt out. He can opt out after this year or next year.

He said its unlikely he'll use either of them because its probably unlikely he'll get more money, but he was also rumored to want a trade because the Rockies didn't make good on their promise to spend money to try and win. I can see him changing his tune on those opt outs if he sees the same shit coming from the Cardinals.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

He had only one opt out. He agreed to waive his NTC to be traded to the Cardinals and in return the Cardinals had to agree to give him a second opt out. He can opt out after this year or next year.

Yes, thats what was reported at the time but several times when asked about the 2nd year, everyone is very vague or don't give a straight answer to the 2nd year question.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yes, thats what was reported at the time but several times when asked about the 2nd year, everyone is very vague or don't give a straight answer to the 2nd year question.

It's literally reported in every publication of the deal. It's not even a question. He has 2 opt outs.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/st-louis...arenado-12643/

And here's fangraphs breaking it all down and discussing the odds of him opting out:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/valuing-...-new-contract/

TLDR: if he stays on ZiPS projections they give him an 79.4% chance of not opting out. If he improves and doesn't follow along the standard age curve regression they give him 49.5% chance of not opting out. In the end, if he improves, they just expect him to leverage his opt outs like Kershaw and get the Cardinals to give him a new deal.

As it stands, Arenado is well on pace to go way past his ZiPS projection of 3.5 WAR for 2021. He's already at 2. Assuming he doesn't get injured and plays at least 150 games he's on pace for 4.6 WAR.