***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[NotDonger]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

Did not realized that we only count Hospitalizations and Death as people having Covid.

As I said, the CDC was reporting every confirmed breakthrough case, but stopped back at the end of April. At that time, the number was well below 1%

Now, they are focusing on just breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths.

[NotDonger]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

Did not realized that we only count Hospitalizations and Death as people having Covid and the data that I presented, shows that there are no severe covid cases among the vaxxed and that is in line with your data.

That's not accurate, either. There are severe breakthrough cases and there are deaths, just not very many compared to unvaccinated.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by NotDonger

As I said, the CDC was reporting every confirmed breakthrough case, but stopped back at the end of April. At that time, the number was well below 1%

Now, they are focusing on just breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths.

Again, you are not reading. If 90% of people vaxxed dont have symptoms, there will be no testing and no cases. if 99.5% of vaxxed dont get severe symptoms, you wont have many hospitalizations and death. That doesnt mean that those people dont have covid.

[NotDonger]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

Again, you are not reading. If 90% of people vaxxed dont have symptoms, there will be no testing and no cases. if 99.5% of vaxxed dont get severe symptoms, you wont have many hospitalizations and death. That doesnt mean that those people dont have covid.

What is your source for the 90% claim, please? The last I saw, it was more in the 27% range.

And yes, I agree and agreed that it's an undercount, but not to the point of "everyone including the vaccinated" will get COVID-19. That makes no sense based on the known efficacy data.

[O.city]

People are looking at the percent of vaccinated hospitalizations and getting alarmed. But by itself, this number can't tell you much about how the vaccines are working, as it's highly dependent on the rate of vaccination in a community. Here's some maths to show what I mean���� pic.twitter.com/MmfiL7H1lw

— Kristen Panthagani, PhD (@kmpanthagani) July 20, 2021

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by NotDonger

What is your source for the 90% claim, please? The last I saw, it was more in the 27% range.

And yes, I agree and agreed that it's an undercount, but not to the point of "everyone including the vaccinated" will get COVID-19. That makes no sense based on the known efficacy data.

Here is an early trial showing 60% for vaxxed and 40% for unvaxxed asymptomatic.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2779854

Here is a later one showing 80% asymptomatic.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2781727

(Small sample sizes)

the image I attached showed 80% asymptomic and 90% < mild symptoms for vaxxed.

[O.city]

An honest & nuanced take on the Israeli vaccine data -

In summary - understanding how to interpret efficacy has become more complex as we vaccinate more people.

"there is little to no compelling evidence of widespread vaccine failure in israel"https://t.co/8fgSpvWjPw

— NYC Angry Mom (@angrybklynmom) July 20, 2021

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

An honest & nuanced take on the Israeli vaccine data -

In summary - understanding how to interpret efficacy has become more complex as we vaccinate more people.

"there is little to no compelling evidence of widespread vaccine failure in israel"https://t.co/8fgSpvWjPw

— NYC Angry Mom (@angrybklynmom) July 20, 2021

Twitter deleted him.

This was a good point...

testing for covid, especially by high Ct PCR, is inherently flawed and prone to massive overstatement of clinical disease. the test is too sensitive and can easily detect non-clinical trace virus and viral remains that are neither infective nor contagious.


And this was a nice exchange in the comments section:

TNK55 min ago
Fair analysis. People tend to miss that the first rule is to make sure your compared populations are actually comparable. This also BTW strongly contradicts the claims, unsupported by any data but just by media trumpeting of Fauci and CDC, that 99.xx% of deaths are in the unvaccinated. Highly implausible.

2Reply
author
el gato malo48 min ago
very much agree. there is no way the US data is diverging that much from israeli and UK.

discussed here.

[O.city]

So you agree the vaccines aren't failing in Israel (or really anywhere) as he says?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by O.city

So you agree the vaccines aren't failing in Israel (or really anywhere) as he says?

Depends on the criteria.

The clot shots were touted as all but preventing serious illness AND transmission.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Depends on the criteria.

The clot shots were touted as all but preventing serious illness AND transmission.

They do both, first being the main contributor I'd guess and the second is probably blunted a bit. Likely due to Delta being pretty spready.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

So you agree the vaccines aren't failing in Israel (or really anywhere) as he says?

Depends on what the definition of success is.

As defined by Fauci and the US media where the vaccines stop Covid?

Yes, they are obviously failing.

With respect to serious disease and death there is argument about signal..we are watching this in real time now.

Berenson (who El Gato is arguing with, I assume) himself thinks the shots do something for about 3-5 months.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Depends on what the definition of success is.

As defined by Fauci and the US media where the vaccines stop Covid?

Yes, they are obviously failing.

With respect to serious disease and death there is argument about signal..we are watching this in real time now.

Berenson (who El Gato is arguing with, I assume) himself thinks the shots do something for about 3-5 months.

Covid is the illness caused by infection. They're suppressing serious disease and death. Seems pretty obvious when looking at the data we have.

I'd guess the talk is about antibody wane after that time, which is what was always gonna happen. Doesn't mean failure.

[TLO]

I don't understand why people think antibodies waning is a bad thing.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

Covid is the illness caused by infection. They're suppressing serious disease and death. Seems pretty obvious when looking at the data we have.

I'd guess the talk is about antibody wane after that time, which is what was always gonna happen. Doesn't mean failure.

No, I don't see that.

Problem in the US is we never get data but propaganda.

Other countries are more transparent but the process is unfolding right now.

They seem to do something (reduce symptoms) for a while but I am not sold on 99% suppression of death either.

Remember, the sliver of people that were vulnerable was really small to start with. In order to suppress death the vaccines need to stimulate the weakest people's immune systems. The initial clinical trials were mostly young and healthy.