Let's talk about the Buffalo Bills (Week 5)

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Welcome. Good post.

I think you hit on the keys to the game here.

Can the Bills go back to the strategy from the regular season matchup and find more success defensively against the run?

This is kind of what I anticipate them doing on D. Safeties deep. Light boxes. Take away big plays. Dare KC to run and hope Lotuleilei can make a difference in the run game.

Looking at the Bills’ DL personnel, I think the Chiefs T match up fairly well. None of Buffalos main pass rushers (Epenesa, Hughes, Rousseau, Bashem) are speed rush guys. They’re all more power rushers, which does play into the strengths of Brown and Niang on the edges. It will be interesting to watch those matchups.

What may not be apparent from afar is how much the remade interior OL has changed the Chiefs front. They’ve got a lot more power and push from the middle.

As far as the Bills offensive personnel, I think KC will do the same type of thing to the Bills. I expect the Chiefs to use a LOT of big dime sets (with Dan Sorenson basically playing LB and only one true LB on the field) and maybe even heavy use of dollar sets, and have the Bills force them out of it.

With the Bills running 11 personnel so much (2/3 of snaps so far this year) and 21 personnel the rest of the time (1/4 of the snaps), I think it’s unlikely we see the Chiefs in the base 43 set much at all and maybe not even in the true nickel set all that much.

I can see this being a game where the Chiefs put Jones inside a lot more, either as a prelude to moving more to that approach, or just for this matchup. A lot will depend, IMO, on whether Frank Clark is available and they have enough depth at DE to make it work.

As a Chiefs fan, I think confidence from our side remains primarily because:

1) Spagnuolo has done a really good job in each of the matchups with Allen at confusing him with exotic looks and slowing his processing down. The D has struggled this year, yea, but the matchup here seems better for KC.

2) KC’s offense has quietly been brilliant, with the exception of some uncharacteristic turnovers. Even with them, they’re putting up a points-per-drive number right now that ranks with the most elite offenses we’ve seen this century (07 Patriots, 13 Broncos, etc.)

It’s also worth noting, IMO, that the Chiefs were without half of their 2 deep at CB against Philadelphia, and that they were also missing their projected starting WILL (and only true WILL type on the roster). Those factors hurt their pass D and make it hard for me to judge whether the final D can improve from “one of league worst” to “average” (which is all they really need with this offense).

This is the key to the game. I was very confident we would beat the Ravens because Spags had perfect gameplans for Lamar previously.

But then we play the Ravens and act like we had never seen their offense before..lack of effort AND terrible scheme.

Against Allen, teams get in trouble when they get too concerned about his mobility. Many of the DC's in the NFL defaulted to stop a running QB, play zone.

Against Allen that is wrong, wrong, wrong. His rocket arm makes zone look like prevent.

Man with two deep safeties is the primary idea against Allen (see Ravens playoff game) with constant false looks. You want to make Allen feel sped up but you don't want to blitz too much, if you do come from the slot and make him move left.

Delay Allen for half second, second and you shift everything into your favor.

Allen thrives on tools..he does not do as well when his first look is covered.