***Official 2021 STL Cardinals Thread***

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Flaherty clearly wasn't right when he returned from his injury. He made it through a few starts and then basically got shut down as he struggled.

He was excellent in April and May. His peripherals for that time period don't show any major deviations from his 2019 and 2018 seasons, especially for a sample of that size.

His performance - even looking at FIP-, which is a very advanced metric and a great way to compare guys year-over-year, he was a top 30 SP in baseball and likely would have turned in a 3 win season. Gotta apply some context.

Acting like a top 50 prospect becoming a top 30 SP in MLB by the age of 25 is anything less than a success is just goofy.

Wtf are you even talking about?

His FIP- was 102 (below average), 104 in his starts. If you look at all pitchers who threw 70 IP he's tied for 110, not top 30. This year was his 2nd worst year in FIP- and 1 of his only 2 years below average. It was 80 in 2019.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Wtf are you even talking about?

His FIP- was 102 (below average), 104 in his starts. If you look at all pitchers who threw 70 IP he's tied for 110, not top 30. This year was his 2nd worst year in FIP- and 1 of his only 2 years below average. It was 80 in 2019.

WTF I am talking about is how he was performing before he was injured.

Use Fangraphs.

Filter through end of May.

He was not right when he came back and the sample size was small enough to skew his overall numbers.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

WTF I am talking about is how he was performing before he was injured.

Use Fangraphs.

Filter through end of May.

He was not right when he came back and the sample size was small enough to skew his overall numbers.

When you start trying to cherry pick numbers and weed out the bad you lose your argument.

That would be like me saying Ian Happ is one of the best hitters in the game... just filter from after August.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by jd1020

When you start trying to cherry pick numbers and weed out the bad you lose your argument.

That would be like me saying Ian Happ is one of the best hitters in the game... just filter from after August.

If I was arbitrarily picking a sample, sure.

But I’m not.

The clear line of demarcation is Flaherty getting placed on the injured list with an injury many expected to cause him to miss the season. That happened after his May 31st start.

He came back in August and clearly wasn’t right and basically got shut down.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If I was arbitrarily picking a sample, sure.

But I’m not.

The clear line of demarcation is Flaherty getting placed on the injured list with an injury many expected to cause him to miss the season. That happened after his May 31st start.

He came back in August and clearly wasn’t right and basically got shut down.

You are doing nothing different. You are just using the excuse of an injury, as if having an injury and not playing at all or not recovering from it still makes a guy a top 30 pitcher if you just pretend the injury never happened.

You are projecting a fraction of a sample into a whole, as if you can do that and say it's the only thing that matters. Like guys that dont go through an injury and start off hot dont naturally fade off as the season progresses... Yu Darvish.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You are doing nothing different. You are just using the excuse of an injury, as if having an injury and not playing at all or not recovering from it still makes a guy a top 30 pitcher if you just pretend the injury never happened.

You are projecting a fraction of a sample into a whole, as if you can do that and say it's the only thing that matters. Like guys that dont go through an injury and start off hot dont naturally fade off as the season progresses... Yu Darvish.

It's quite different. You are doing what a lot of people who just want to use stats make the mistake of doing: Ignoring context and looking at the stats in a vacuum.

Before he injured his oblique, Flaherty was pitching like the starter he was in 2018 and 2019 - back on track and putting the weird 2020 season behind him.

Now, if a strained oblique was an injury with a long history of ending or evenly altering careers, I'd throw that out as a concern for the future. But it isn't.

Looking at the season statistically as a whole and calling it a bad year or a sign that he's an underachieving prospect because he didn't pitch well after returning from injury and subsequently being shut down is intellectually dishonest.

But I'll stop there. I didn't mean to invade the Cardinals thread and argue in circles with a Cubs fan, and yet... here I am.

[jd1020]

You're right. I'm sure during his arbitration case they will only look at what he was doing through May. It was a banner year for Mr. Flaherty.