How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?

[MMXcalibur]

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

The Steeler offense is so terrible.

The Broncos are not good offensively.

The Bengals are hit and miss.

Yep.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Also enjoying the Bills fighting for their playoff lives a year after all of the "lifelong fan of the past three months" shit for brain fans came out of the woodwork to tell us Allen > Mahomes and they're taking over the AFC for the next two decades.... and the twist of the dagger with the Patriots taking back the division.

Yeah and this year the same thing with Herbert. I don't get it. Mahomes is a likeable guy. He's not only a winner but he's fun to watch. I guess some just like to build up so they can rear down.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yeah and this year the same thing with Herbert. I don't get it. Mahomes is a likeable guy. He's not only a winner but he's fun to watch. I guess some just like to build up so they can rear down.

Terry Bradshaw pretty much summed up the Herbert stuff with his own opinion on the subject:

6'6", rocket arm, etc.

The NFL is nostalgic to a fault.

[DJ's left nut]

Weirdly, I'm pretty sure the Chiefs could even lose a game at this point.

The Titans aren't going to win out - I figure they'll lose to the 49ers next week and that would be 4 losses in 5 games; a genuine tailspin that will probably then carry through to the Miami game and they end up losing again. Then they'll beat Houston to end the season at 10-7.

Buffalo, with 6 losses already including key tiebreakers to TN and Indy (one of whom will be battling them for a WC spot) are essentially playing for their playoff lives against NE next week. If they lose that game they're in REAL danger of missing the playoffs outright - I think they'll beat NE. And NE still has a weird matchup against Miami on the road.

Win the next 2 and this things locked up by the Broncos game. Then you could theoretically play that one soft and if the Broncos manage to beat the Chargers in a couple weeks, the Broncos could be playing for that last WC spot ahead of LAC - I'd I'd far prefer see Denver in the post-season than LA.

The AFC really has beaten the hell out of itself this year.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Weirdly, I'm pretty sure the Chiefs could even lose a game at this point.

The Titans aren't going to win out - I figure they'll lose to the 49ers next week and that would be 4 losses in 5 games; a genuine tailspin that will probably then carry through to the Miami game and they end up losing again. Then they'll beat Houston to end the season at 10-7.

Buffalo, with 6 losses already including key tiebreakers to TN and Indy (one of whom will be battling them for a WC spot) are essentially playing for their playoff lives against NE next week. If they lose that game they're in REAL danger of missing the playoffs outright - I think they'll beat NE. And NE still has a weird matchup against Miami on the road.

Win the next 2 and this things locked up by the Broncos game. Then you could theoretically play that one soft and if the Broncos manage to beat the Chargers in a couple weeks, the Broncos could be playing for that last WC spot ahead of LAC - I'd I'd far prefer see Denver in the post-season than LA.

The AFC really has beaten the hell out of itself this year.

The only issue is that the "losable" game of the next 3 is Cinci.

They should beat the Steelers but after that, which Bengals team shows up?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The only issue is that the "losable" game of the next 3 is Cinci.

They should beat the Steelers but after that, which Bengals team shows up?

Hopefully the one where Ja'Marr Chase does absolutely dick.

Because if that !@#$ing guy is going to tank my FFB team in the 1st round of the playoffs, the least he can do is do it again a couple weeks later.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yeah and this year the same thing with Herbert. I don't get it. Mahomes is a likeable guy. He's not only a winner but he's fun to watch. I guess some just like to build up so they can rear down.

I don't think it has much to do with Mahomes, it's just "boring" to continue to talk about him because he's still so far away from comparing his entire career to Brady. There's no drama in talking about another Mahomes performance where he throws for 400 yards and 4 TDs.

The media is constantly looking for "the next ___".... they ran "is Mahomes the next Brady" into the ground a couple years ago, so now it's time to find the next Mahomes.

They also need someone to be Mahomes' Peyton Manning to provide some competition, rivalry and reason to watch... they don't want fans to assume Mahomes is going to win a Super Bowl every couple years and no other team has a chance, and you might as well not ever turn on ESPN again because you'll get sick of Mahomes Mahomes Mahomes, just like Brady.

[DJ's left nut]

Man, the AFC really is a cluster****.

It's not even an unlikely scenario to have 6 teams in the AFC at 9-6 after next week.

Buffalo beats NE = both at 9-6
TN loses to 49ers = TN at 9-6
Cincy vs. Baltimore = winner ends at 9-6
Indy beats AZ = Indy at 9-6
LAC over Hou = Chargers at 9-6

Even Cleveland could get there by beating the Raiders this week and Packers next week. That's the only one I see as genuinely unlikely. It's possible that you'll have the Chiefs at 11-4 and 2 games clear of the entire AFC (with all 6 remaining playoff teams at 9-6) with 2 weeks to play.

What a weird year, man.

[smithandrew051]

If the Chiefs get pressure, the defense is elite.

The Bengals are absolute garbage in pass protection. They’ve allowed 44 sacks already.

They’ve allowed 2 more sacks than the Jets, but attempted 88 fewer passes.

They have had only 5 games with fewer than 3 sacks allowed, and they’ve also had 5 games with 5+ sacks allowed. They’ve allowed 14 over the last 3 weeks.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Weirdly, I'm pretty sure the Chiefs could even lose a game at this point.

The Titans aren't going to win out - I figure they'll lose to the 49ers next week and that would be 4 losses in 5 games; a genuine tailspin that will probably then carry through to the Miami game and they end up losing again. Then they'll beat Houston to end the season at 10-7.

Buffalo, with 6 losses already including key tiebreakers to TN and Indy (one of whom will be battling them for a WC spot) are essentially playing for their playoff lives against NE next week. If they lose that game they're in REAL danger of missing the playoffs outright - I think they'll beat NE. And NE still has a weird matchup against Miami on the road.

Win the next 2 and this things locked up by the Broncos game. Then you could theoretically play that one soft and if the Broncos manage to beat the Chargers in a couple weeks, the Broncos could be playing for that last WC spot ahead of LAC - I'd I'd far prefer see Denver in the post-season than LA.

The AFC really has beaten the hell out of itself this year.

Wait, what? Thats a real scenario?

If that's the case, yes, you tank the shit out of that last week and let Denver in.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Wait, what? Thats a real scenario?

If that's the case, yes, you tank the shit out of that last week and let Denver in.

Chargers are a game up on Denver but Denver's already beaten them once. If Denver beats 'em in week 17 they'd be tied (presuming Denver beats the Raiders this week) with Denver holding the tiebreaker. At that point Denver controls its destiny - win over the Chiefs and they'd hold the #2 seed in the west and presumably get in over a 10-7 Chargers squad.

The only question at that point would be how a 3-way tiebreaker scenario works and that that point my eyes cross. Denver has a really rough conference record and even if they win out, the best they'll end up with is a 6-6 conf record. So if it ends up in a situation where a 3-way tie takes H2H out of the equation and conf record trumps, I guess LAC could still advance ahead of them.

Really not sure how that scenario works.

[WilliamTheIrish]

Originally Posted by Spott

Crazy that just a few weeks ago we seemingly had no shot to be where we are, and now we are two games up on the division, two games up on the Bills and Ravens and in sole possession of the 1 seed (knock on wood).

It’s a fluid situation. You see, I read Kant, by the fireplace usually. And the NFL matrix is controlled by the Rothchilds, who were born of the devil when communism had sexual relations with the central bank. Therefore the blood sacrifices of Jesuits who also kiss Tom Brady’s kid on the mouth and you’ll see how the chiefs temporarily ended up in the drivers seat by sniff and the tears.

[Megatron96]

Not sure if it's true, but some talking head on ESPN or FoxSports said yesterday that if KC wins 2 out of the last 3 they clinch the 1st seed.

Wild, when you consider how the season started.

[O.city]

It's likely 2/3 clinch it. The rest of the AFC plays each other so it's working out great for the NFL.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Not sure if it's true, but some talking head on ESPN or FoxSports said yesterday that if KC wins 2 out of the last 3 they clinch the 1st seed.

Wild, when you consider how the season started.

That's not true - yet.

If the Titans win out and the Chiefs lose one, the Chiefs lose the tiebreaker to the Titans. And if the Patriots win out and the Chiefs lose one, the Patriots will have a 10-2 conf record to the Chiefs 6-6.

They'll only clinch if the Titans and Patriots lose again. Otherwise they'll need to win out.