Let's talk about the Bengals [and Hamburger Helper]

[TLO]

This one is huge as far as the #1 seed goes.

Let's talk about it.

[TimBone]

Devil's advocate...what's the Chiefs signature win?

We got the Packers minus Rodgers, and the Cowboys minus their best receivers.

I'd say the Chargers is our best win, but honestly I think the Chargers looked like the better team most of that game. Granted we did win that game with a big defensive player missing at every level of the defense.

[FlaChief58]

Originally Posted by TimBone

Devil's advocate...what's the Chiefs signature win?

We got the Packers minus Rodgers, and the Cowboys minus their best receivers.

I'd say the Chargers is our best win, but honestly I think the Chargers looked like the better team most of that game. Granted we did win that game with a big defensive player missing at every level of the defense.

I'd say the steelers game. They were fighting for their playoff lives and we beat them like a red headded stepchild in all phases.

[ping2000]

Originally Posted by FlaChief58

KC = small market/flyover country

Agree, that and the fact that 99% of ESPN talking heads are ex Pat's Colts or Steelers that hate the Chiefs. **** them all, we have Patrick.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by TimBone

Devil's advocate...what's the Chiefs signature win?

We got the Packers minus Rodgers, and the Cowboys minus their best receivers.

I'd say the Chargers is our best win, but honestly I think the Chargers looked like the better team most of that game. Granted we did win that game with a big defensive player missing at every level of the defense.

Oh, 100% on that vibe. There's always a bit of a double standard around here when it comes to discounting an opponent's schedule versus the Chiefs'.

Ever since Rodgers was ruled out, my thought has been we won't REALLY know if they're back until the playoffs... and that's just the nature of NFL schedules.

BUT, we obviously know what this team is capable of now and in the playoffs. We've talked a lot about cleaning up turnovers and the defense needing to get healthy and have a real DE and be less than "historically bad" (if they ever were this season), and whatever Mahomes' struggles were needed to go away.

And all of that existed at one point or another against the shit teams of the league.... and it's mostly gone away, granted against mostly the shit teams in the league. I would have felt better with a 'signature' win over the Bills or Titans (or for those games to be played now), but they were instead dominated and so here we are...

So, do we KNOW they can beat a Super Bowl caliber team? I would say no, not 100%. Except.... who the hell is a SB caliber team right now?

And unlike the Bengals and pretty much every team, we've been there and have done it, and that experience is huge.

So, I think we're riding on past results more so right now than beating up shit teams like the Steelers, Raiders, etc. Much like the Bills fans screaming point differential! last season, it's nice to see, but isn't indicative of SB results.

Yet, this core of players has proven far more over the course of 3 years than any other team in the league, and it's not really even close.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

New Bengals fans narrative: the Chiefs OL hasn’t faced a top pass rush all season

I would like to point out that we just played Pittsburgh, who is 4th in sacks

I've seen that a few times now. I put my stat nerd hat on just now and headed over to Pro Football Reference.

Looking at (pressure) and [hurry] rates there, here are the teams the Chiefs have faced:

(2) [1] Buffalo
(4) [10] Dallas
(8) [6] Chargers x2
(10) [5] Broncos
(12) [16]Steelers
(13) [18]Raiders x2
(15) [23]Ravens
(17) [8] Eagles
(18) [24]Browns
(19) [12]Packers
(20) [15]Titans
(21) [22]WFT
(30) [28]NY Giants

(14)[14] Bengals

So looking at those rates (which really tell you more about the effectiveness of a pass rush than pure sack totals, IMO), the Bengals have a VERY slightly above-average team when it comes to pressuring and hurrying the quarterback.

The Chiefs, by the way, rank (7) and [2].

If you aggregate the ranks of the Chiefs opponents, the totals come out to facing an average pressure rate of 14th and an average hurry rate of 14.133rd. So, basically, the Bengals are actually an EXACT approximation of the type of pass rush the Chiefs have faced overall this year.

Unless Trey Hendrickson just absolutely goes off against the Chiefs and is completely unblockable (which would be the first time he really has done that this season), I don't expect the Bengals pass rush to CONSISTENTLY cause problems for KC.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by TimBone

Devil's advocate...what's the Chiefs signature win?

We got the Packers minus Rodgers, and the Cowboys minus their best receivers.

I'd say the Chargers is our best win, but honestly I think the Chargers looked like the better team most of that game. Granted we did win that game with a big defensive player missing at every level of the defense.

I’d say the chargers. They brought their best when the stakes were super high. Cowboys a close second. Even without their top receivers they are a beast on both sides of the ball and we flat out throttled them. But the bigger point is that we’re battle tested. Much of the worst of our schedule is on the same level as Cincys signature wins. Our signature losses were to top playoff contenders. We’ve played one hell of a schedule even with a few games with a few lucky breaks.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I’d say the chargers. They brought their best when the stakes were super high. Cowboys a close second. Even without their top receivers they are a beast on both sides of the ball and we flat out throttled them. But the bigger point is that we’re battle tested. Much of the worst of our schedule is on the same level as Cincys signature wins. Our signature losses were to top playoff contenders. We’ve played one hell of a schedule even with a few games with a few lucky breaks.

It's also worth pointing out the Cowboys started that game with CeeDee Lamb and did squat in the first half with him. His concussion came at the end of the half.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I've seen that a few times now. I put my stat nerd hat on just now and headed over to Pro Football Reference.

Looking at (pressure) and [hurry] rates there, here are the teams the Chiefs have faced:

(2) [1] Buffalo
(4) [10] Dallas
(8) [6] Chargers x2
(10) [5] Broncos
(12) [16]Steelers
(13) [18]Raiders x2
(15) [23]Ravens
(17) [8] Eagles
(18) [24]Browns
(19) [12]Packers
(20) [15]Titans
(21) [22]WFT
(30) [28]NY Giants

(14)[14] Bengals

So looking at those rates (which really tell you more about the effectiveness of a pass rush than pure sack totals, IMO), the Bengals have a VERY slightly above-average team when it comes to pressuring and hurrying the quarterback.

The Chiefs, by the way, rank (7) and [2].

If you aggregate the ranks of the Chiefs opponents, the totals come out to facing an average pressure rate of 14th and an average hurry rate of 14.133rd. So, basically, the Bengals are actually an EXACT approximation of the type of pass rush the Chiefs have faced overall this year.

Unless Trey Hendrickson just absolutely goes off against the Chiefs and is completely unblockable (which would be the first time he really has done that this season), I don't expect the Bengals pass rush to CONSISTENTLY cause problems for KC.

Good stuff here.

I have a similar opinion about Hendrickson that I posted early in this thread.

He rarely gets shut down, but he also very rarely takes over games. He’s a super consistent really good player. I expect him to have a sack, 2 Hits, and maybe 3-4 pressures this week. That’s a good stat line for sure, but that won’t wreck the game for us.

[mr. tegu]

I don’t think I’ve thought about hamburger helper in twenty years since last eating it growing up. I’ve seen them cook their gross chili spaghetti on cooking shows and never once has it looked good.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Oh, 100% on that vibe. There's always a bit of a double standard around here when it comes to discounting an opponent's schedule versus the Chiefs'.

Ever since Rodgers was ruled out, my thought has been we won't REALLY know if they're back until the playoffs... and that's just the nature of NFL schedules.

BUT, we obviously know what this team is capable of now and in the playoffs. We've talked a lot about cleaning up turnovers and the defense needing to get healthy and have a real DE and be less than "historically bad" (if they ever were this season), and whatever Mahomes' struggles were needed to go away.

And all of that existed at one point or another against the shit teams of the league.... and it's mostly gone away, granted against mostly the shit teams in the league. I would have felt better with a 'signature' win over the Bills or Titans (or for those games to be played now), but they were instead dominated and so here we are...

So, do we KNOW they can beat a Super Bowl caliber team? I would say no, not 100%. Except.... who the hell is a SB caliber team right now?

And unlike the Bengals and pretty much every team, we've been there and have done it, and that experience is huge.

So, I think we're riding on past results more so right now than beating up shit teams like the Steelers, Raiders, etc. Much like the Bills fans screaming point differential! last season, it's nice to see, but isn't indicative of SB results.

Yet, this core of players has proven far more over the course of 3 years than any other team in the league, and it's not really even close.

Not in this case. You could argue that neither team has a signature win. But there’s a clear difference in strength of schedule. The chiefs have played 4 top 10 teams. Bengals 1. Meanwhile the bengals have played the three worst teams and 4 in the bottom 10 (jags, jets, lions, bears). The chiefs only 1. Somehow the bengals going 2-2 in those games. The timing of the ravens and raiders games were practically layups. So we’re talking about one team that’s consistently played playoff contenders vs a team that’s played half of their schedule against bad teams. I don’t think there’s any argument the chiefs have had a tough schedule. And easy to make the argument the bengals schedule has not been.

That doesn’t mean either team has any advantage. But on paper we are way more proven even keeping prior seasons aside.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I bet the Bengals are tough as hell in a couple seasons.

Patch up that OL, give Burrow more experience, and get an actual defensive coordinator who knows what he’s doing. That could be a Super Bowl caliber squad.

I would agree. The problem is you have to ask the bengals to execute it. And gotta hope burrow doesn’t get killed first behind that ol.

[Dunerdr]

Speaking of signature wins. Most of the AFC playoff contenders signature wins were against us, when we were playing like absolute elephant diarrhea.

[mililo4cpa]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Interesting, someone here had the same takeaways the other day, saying there's really no pre-snap movement on offense, no exotic blitzes or anything.

Makes sense given their cupcake schedule and lack of quality wins.

That would have been me that made that claim a few days ago, after watching the clipped down versions of their games....

Very vanilla both on offense and defense.... they obviously motion some, and they blitz some, but not a lot at all. It's pretty much line up and beat you on both sides of the ball.....

One thing I also mentioned prior, but would like add more flavor to: Their offense is explosive because of the talented WRs they have + a QB that can get it to them (obviously!)

But the "more flavor" part of it is that, with the 3 excellent WRs + a TE that can run, it seems Burrow has mastered the art of finding the single coverage and throwing it up to them.....and they are talented enough to come down with it.

Much like other teams can try to double Kelce and Hill and take their chances with everyone else, the Gals have the same thing going here.

Burrow is very comfortable just chucking it up and letting his guys make plays. He does occasionally make a "wow" throw (i.e. into a tight windows), but those really aren't that common with him.

The "wow" throws are usually a result of the WRs making the plays on the other end of Burrow's toss ups. I think it's paramount that the rush get to him before that happens.

The rush don't have to sack him per se, but interrupt him enough to where those 50/50 balls are long, short, offline, etc. to minimize the risk of those WRs coming down with it.....My guess, and seeing that Burrow likes to hold the ball, the sacks will come if the rush can come home. But the most important thing is to limit the long ball (BTW, the Gals are 39.5% on third downs, which is very average to below average for the league)

Don't get me wrong: Burrow is a very good QB, but he gets bailed out a ton by the WR talent they have. But it is very feast/famine for the Gals, so if the explosive plays can be limited, that is a huge plus for the Chiefs.

NOTE: I do expect the Gals to hit on some explosive plays along the way, particularly since the Chiefs are bend but don't break. If the Chiefs can keep those long plays from being scoring plays, then that will neuter the Gals offense


EDIT:
P.S. I also mentioned before that I don't understand the lack of motion by teams (but I'm not a coach, so who knows!).....so I've been wondering why the Gals don't motion a lot at all.....the only thing I could come up with is that, when they line up, each route assigned is in combination with the others, and Burrow is reading the Defense in conjunction with those combinations, and somehow, a motion would make that read more difficult.....

That is a weak theory I admit, but for the life of me I can't think of anything better.....would be curious of an answer to that from more knowledgable people!

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I don’t think I’ve thought about hamburger helper in twenty years since last eating it growing up.

Well then, you're missing out! Just look at how they've expanded their lineup since we were youngins.

https://www.bettycrocker.com/products/helper

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Not in this case. You could argue that neither team has a signature win. But there’s a clear difference in strength of schedule. The chiefs have played 4 top 10 teams. Bengals 1. Meanwhile the bengals have played the three worst teams and 4 in the bottom 10 (jags, jets, lions, bears). The chiefs only 1. Somehow the bengals going 2-2 in those games. The timing of the ravens and raiders games were practically layups. So we’re talking about one team that’s consistently played playoff contenders vs a team that’s played half of their schedule against bad teams. I don’t think there’s any argument the chiefs have had a tough schedule. And easy to make the argument the bengals schedule has not been.

That doesn’t mean either team has any advantage. But on paper we are way more proven even keeping prior seasons aside.

Yeah, you could argue they should only have 2 or 3 losses instead of 6, while the Chiefs should have 3 instead of 4.... or maybe 2 instead of 4.

And it's pretty remarkable the Chiefs have only played one truly terrible team this season in the NYG, even if they didn't get Rodgers (and teams like the Cowboys and Raiders are still managing wins, which is more than you can say for the Jags, Jets, Lions, etc.).

I personally narrow down my focus to games against SB contenders as having the most weight towards doing really well in the playoffs (of course, consistency and other things factor in to a lesser extent).... so, in the spirit of TimBone's post, there just isn't the 'wow' factor of signature wins this season.

Last season there was the Bills in Buffalo, Bucs in TB, Saints in NO... then even the Ravens in Baltimore. That's a schedule you look at and say, holy shit, this team can beat anyone, anywhere.

This season it's the Browns when they were full strength, then.... the 8-7 Chargers and almost the Ravens?

And I'm not trying to stir shit over it or anything... simply saying you could look at the schedule last season and have supreme confidence, where as this season it's more like the '20 Bills where you can point to a long win streak and point differential, but still a 'wait and see' to some extent (of course, we have Mahomes and every other team is a dumpster fire right now).