Discount Kiper 2023 Mock @ Q3 of Season

[kccrow]

Chiefs Offseason

Two things are clear:
1) The offensive tackles are abysmal and it's time to change the guard
2) The defensive line is horrendous and it's time for a complete overhaul

With that...

Release Frank Clark ($19.6m savings)
Yeah, Frank, you're garbage.

Franchise Tag Orlando Brown Jr and trade to New York Jets for a 2023 2nd-round pick.
Orlando has little use to the Chiefs in my opinion and you're certainly not giving him top-of-the-position money. He's probably worth tagging and just trading for what you can get, and I can foresee that being a reasonable pick. The Jets feature a bit more of a ground game than KC and need an LT so it could be a good fit there. If you don't get a trade partner, cut bait on the tag and just move on.

Internal Signings:
DT Chris Jones to a 3-yr, $80.5m extension that includes a $24.0m signing bonus, $41.0m guaranteed at signing, and salary guarantees the last two years that trigger on the 5th day of the league year that could fully guarantee the contract, a conversion of 16.0m of 2023 salary to additional signing bonus with a full guarantee of the remaining 3.5m (cap hits of 21.0, 27.5, 28.5, and 30.5)
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster to 3-yr, $60.0m deal that includes a $21.0m signing bonus and $38.5m guaranteed at signing (cap hits of 14.0, 20.0, 26.0)
P Tommy Townsend to 4-yr $12.0m deal that includes a $2.0m signing bonus and $3.5m guaranteed at signing. (cap hits of 2.0, 2.5, 3.5, 4.0)
OG Nick Allegretti to 1-yr, 1.1m deal
DT Khalen Saunders to 1-yr, 1.1m deal
DB Deon Bush to 1-yr, 1.1m deal
FB Michael Burton to 1-yr, 1.2m deal
WR Justin Watson to VSB 1-yr, 1.3m deal
LB Darrius Harris ERFA tag 1-yr $870k
TE Jody Fortson ERFA tag 1-yr $870k
QB Shane Buechele ERFA tag 1-yr $870k
OT Prince Tega-Wanogho ERFA tag 1-yr $870k

Free Agent Additions:
OT Andre Dillard (PHI) to 2-yr $10.0m deal that includes a 3.0m signing bonus and annual performance escalators of up to 3.0m (cap hits of 4.0, 6.0)
Dillard performed okay when he did get his shot but Mailata ended up being the better player. Dillard still holds a lot of value as a capable swing tackle and he should get a shot to start somewhere, which will likely drive his value up a bit. I look to bring him in to hedge bets against letting OBj go here so the Chiefs wouldn't be walking into the draft with an absolute need.
DE Charles Omenihu (SF) to 2-yr $8.0m deal that includes a 1.0m signing bonus and guaranteed base salary in 2023 (cap hits of 3.5, 4.5)
Omenihu has flashed some ability and is a solid rotational piece. I look to pry him away from San Francisco for the same role.
DE Dawuane Smoot (JAX) to 2-yr $15.0m deal that includes a 6.0m signing bonus and guaranteed base salary in 2023 (cap hits of 6.0, 9.0)
Smoot is unheralded but he's a very solid player that can get you 7-8 sacks and be a plus player against the run. In a class that lacks superstar talent, just loading up might be the way to go.
NT Greg Gaines (LAR) to a 2-yr $12.0m deal that includes a 3.0m signing bonus (cap hits of 5.0, 7.0)
Gaines is one of the better nose tackles in the NFL but he doesn't get much recognition. The Rams would be wise to re-sign him but I have my doubts they will. A good player to pry away.
RB D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) to a 1-yr $1.1m deal
Johnson has done some damage when given a shot but he's been buried behind two very good RBs in Cleveland. I have KC snagging a good rotational back on the cheap once again.

Chiefs Let Walk:
OT Andrew Wylie, FS Juan Thornhill, DE Carlos Dunlap, DT Derrick Nnadi, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Blake Bell, RB Ronald Jones II, OT Geron Christian, DT Taylor Stallworth, RB Jerick McKinnon, DT Tershawn Wharton, DB Chris Lammons, QB Chad Henne

2023 Draft

1. OT Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (6'5" 320)
I'm giving Bergeron the chance to take the LT position and never look back, but if that fails I have Dillard in the fold and I move Bergeron to RT where he should flourish.
2. (f/NYJ) DT Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin (6'4" 317)
Benton is one of my favorites already in this draft class. He gets a great push up the middle and commands extra attention, which the Chiefs need desperately next to Jones.
2. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (6'3" 255)
I really like Felix and think he could end up higher than this at the end of the day, but for now, I have him down here at the bottom of round 2. He's looking like a great situational rusher that will eventually give you a lot more.
3. DT DeWayne Carter, Duke (6'3" 300)
Carter is a stud, honestly, and gets zero recognition. I'd love to see him be an under-the-radar get for the Chiefs as a 3-tech rotational player and passing down specialist next to Jones.
4. WR Josh Vann, South Carolina (5'11" 190)
I'd have Vann a lot higher than this if not for his knee injury this year that ended his season early. Vann is an outside receiver that makes a ton of plays and could come cheap given he likely won't work out.
4. (f/MIA) TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati (6'5" 255)
I love Whyle as a future guy as Kelce continues to age. They come from the same program with similar pedigrees and play styles.
5. CB Rejzohn Wright, Oregon State (6'2" 200)
Wright has continued to develop into a better and better corner. The more he learns to be disciplined and keep from being too physical and drawing flags, the better he gets. He's a definite Spags type on the outside.
6. QB Aidan O'Connell, Purdue (6'3" 210)
I think O'Connell doesn't get enough praise in the circles but he's a pretty solid QB with a fairly solid resume. He's the type of guy I could see Reid working his magic on and flipping, plus this kid is smart which Andy definitely values.
7. (f/ATL) OG Nick Broeker, Ole Miss (6'5" 315)
Staying outside is probably not in the cards as he lunges too much and is a little too susceptible to giving away the inside, but he's mobile and a good player. He reminds me a lot of Royce Newmann who the Packers took in the 4th.
7. DB Avery Young, Rutgers (6'0" 205)
Avery is a guy I think you can work in a role very similar to Sneed, which is much the reason I see him being on the radar. He's been good inside/outside and he's a good tackler.
7. (Comp) RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 199)
I look to replace McKinnon with another speedy back that can catch it out of the backfield. This is a reaaaaally good RB class so some gems could slip through.
7. (Comp) DT Jerrod Clark, Coastal Carolina (6'4" 340)
I might have Clark way too low as he's a beast at Coastal. This is another guy that can force his way into the backfield on sheer size and strength.
7. (Comp) DE Jamal Hines, Toledo (6'3" 260)
Hines is a guy that was relatively productive that I'm just throwing a dart at. Way too many 7th rounders...


QB: P. Mahomes II, S. Buechele, A. O'Connell
RB: I. Pacheco, C. Edwards-Helaire, D. Johnson, X. Valladay
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, J. Fortson, J. Whyle
WR: J. Smith-Schuster, M. Valdes-Scantling, K. Toney, S. Moore, J. Watson, J. Vann
OT: A. Dillard, M. Bergeron, L. Niang, P. Tega-Wanogho
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, N. Allegretti, D. Kinnard, N. Broeker

ED: G. Karlaftis, D. Smoot, C. Omenihu, F. Anudike-Uzomah, M. Danna, M. Herring, J. Hines, J. Kaindoh
DT: C. Jones, G. Gaines, K. Benton, D. Carter, K. Saunders, J. Clark
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, L. Chenal, D. Harris, J. Cochrane
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, L. Sneed, J. Watson, N. Johnson, R. Wright
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, D. Bush, A. Young

[Nightfyre]

I love where your head is at. Laser focus on the trenches. How would you feel about taking a chance or a stab at Davenport?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

I love where your head is at. Laser focus on the trenches. How would you feel about taking a chance or a stab at Davenport?

Davenport intrigues me, honestly. His 2021 was pretty solid. I'd feel comfortable subbing him for Omenihu in this scenario. I wouldn't go any further than that though.

[Chris Meck]

I don't know enough about the individual players, but I like the positional emphasis.

I think I'd probably take a higher upside S somewhere in the middle rounds, but yeah.

[O.city]

I like it.

If I could get Dillard at that, I'd go a different direction with that first rounder though.

[JPH83]

There's a lot I like there, but like Chris there's also elements I'd have to defer to you. I'm not too hot on contracts, so could be way off, and I only recognise your earlier picks in the draft.

I like the internal signings. Probably the only one I wouldn't pull the trigger on is Saunders. I think someone will see the athleticism and (wrongly) bet on the upside, imo. I'm not bothered about him coming back. Other than that the JJSS cost is riiiight on the edge of reasonable for me. Probably more realistic given the market but I'm definitely not convinced he's worth it. I wasn't sure about your approach to MVS, I'd boot him and for the that reason might be prepared to spend more on JJSS. If not I'd prioritise Jakobi Meyers, who I think can do a lot of what he does but has more of an all-round game.

I would LOVE to get a 2nd round pick back for OBJ. Not sure if happens but I'd bite your hand off for that.

Of the FA picks I really like Omenihu, Dillard and Johnson. I could see Omenihu going for a fair bit more but as I say, contracts I'm iffy on. Don't care for Smoot. If I was after another DE, and I would be, I'd be interested in someone like Okoronkwo or Key. I would LOVE Davenport but again think he'll be miles out of our price range. Won't be popular but I really wouldn't hate Ingram back for a year, as ancient as he'll be.

Not that high on Gaines, I'd probably go for someone like Worsley at the Steelers or Billings. Both I think are better against the run AND have a little more juice as rushers. He's way up and down and I wonder about his injury list, but Hurst is someone I'd be interested in if we could get at value.

I'm not that big a fan of Bergeron as a 1st rounder or Benton where you're taking him, but i would LOVE Felix with that pick. The rest I've no idea on.

[Couch-Potato]

I love the idea of fortifying our trenches! This is very creative, but feels like too big of a shift to become a reality. I think we're slightly more conservative considering we're currently front runners.

I want to see some serious difference makers on the Dline as well, but I think it's fair to say we could see a massive impact from adding just 1-2 talented guys next to Jones and George. Six additions feels like overkill.

I know CP is tired of OBJ, I would have much rather paid Trent Williams, but I need to be certain that we're getting a stalwart league leading LT before I'm willing to move on from him. Seems to me we'd be unlikely to move him until we had something else lined up, and I'm not sure Dillard gives us that confidence. But then again, we won't have the ammo to move up and get a LT like that unless we move OBJ. It's a risky play IMO.

Also, I don't love nabbing a backup QB in the draft. Veach can work magic in those late rounds and a 5th is solid ammo for him to find a gem.

All of the above is coming from a guy that watches 0 college football, and has no clue who the guys you're referring to in the draft are yet, so take my feedback with a grain of salt.

Ultimately, I'm with you on DL and OL, sprinkle in some weapons in the mid rounds for Mahomes and late round flyer on the RB... all good stuff!

[The Franchise]

Seeing a ton of Oregon State games....I love the Wright pick.

[duncan_idaho]

Looks good to me, Crow.

I like the Dillard deal and think, if they wanted, the team could pair that signing with a stab at Conklin or Elgton Jenkins so there is a more known quantity at least at one tackle spot.

[kccrow]

Here are some of the highlights for each guy I picked in the draft for those that haven't seen them all. It's not perfect but at least they should give you an idea.

Matthew Bergeron, LT, Syracuse
Garrett Shrader highlights (QB) for pass blocking


Sean Tucker highlights (RB) for run blocking


Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin


Felix Anudike-Uzomah, ER, Kansas State


DeWayne Carter, DT, Duke


Josh Vann, WR, South Carolina


Josh Whyle, TE, Cincinnati


Rejzohn Wright, CB, Oregon State


Aidan O'Connell, QB, Purdue


Nick Broeker, LG, Ole Miss (Probably have to move him up after he got 2nd team All-SEC) Note this is a Jonathan Mingo highlight so watch for the LG...


Avery Young, DB, Rutgers (not much out there except single games)


Xazavian Valladay, RB, Arizona State


from when he was at Wyoming...


Jerrod Clark, DT, Coastal Carolina (vs Army look for the biggest guy on the field on defense...)


Jamal Hines, ER, Toledo (vs Ball State look for #91 on D)

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by JPH83

There's a lot I like there, but like Chris there's also elements I'd have to defer to you. I'm not too hot on contracts, so could be way off, and I only recognise your earlier picks in the draft.

I like the internal signings. Probably the only one I wouldn't pull the trigger on is Saunders. I think someone will see the athleticism and (wrongly) bet on the upside, imo. I'm not bothered about him coming back. Other than that the JJSS cost is riiiight on the edge of reasonable for me. Probably more realistic given the market but I'm definitely not convinced he's worth it. I wasn't sure about your approach to MVS, I'd boot him and for the that reason might be prepared to spend more on JJSS. If not I'd prioritise Jakobi Meyers, who I think can do a lot of what he does but has more of an all-round game.

I would LOVE to get a 2nd round pick back for OBJ. Not sure if happens but I'd bite your hand off for that.

Of the FA picks I really like Omenihu, Dillard and Johnson. I could see Omenihu going for a fair bit more but as I say, contracts I'm iffy on. Don't care for Smoot. If I was after another DE, and I would be, I'd be interested in someone like Okoronkwo or Key. I would LOVE Davenport but again think he'll be miles out of our price range. Won't be popular but I really wouldn't hate Ingram back for a year, as ancient as he'll be.

Not that high on Gaines, I'd probably go for someone like Worsley at the Steelers or Billings. Both I think are better against the run AND have a little more juice as rushers. He's way up and down and I wonder about his injury list, but Hurst is someone I'd be interested in if we could get at value.

I'm not that big a fan of Bergeron as a 1st rounder or Benton where you're taking him, but i would LOVE Felix with that pick. The rest I've no idea on.

Honestly curious why? He's definitely among the best NTs in the NFL right now.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Honestly curious why? He's definitely among the best NTs in the NFL right now.

I think it's just more about who I'd prefer. I don't think he's been as solid this year looking at their OL and I like guys like Wormley as I think they have a little more all around, not that that's the priority. Wouldn't hate seeing him here, he'd be an upgrade I'm sure.

[Stryker]

Awesome! But, why in the hell keep CEH? Let him walk as well!

[Buehler445]

Man, is JJSS going to cost 20M per?

I don’t know that I’m thrilled about that. Just rough AAV that puts him at 2/3 Reek. I don’t know that he is 2/3 the player Reek is.

That’s probably what it is and it’s probably the thing to do.

It just doesn’t feel right.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Stryker

Awesome! But, why in the hell keep CEH? Let him walk as well!

Almost as cheap as any other JAG on his rookie deal... he knows the offense.