JuJu to Kansas City

[Dante84]

#ChiefsKingdom Let’s Go!

— JuJu Smith-Schuster (@TeamJuJu) March 18, 2022

JuJu Smith-Schuster is getting a one-year, $10.75M deal with the Chiefs, per source.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 18, 2022

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The exact opposite, my friend.

The gap between their respective yards per route run and their yards per target is greater precisely BECAUSE JuJu struggles to get separation. JJSS is much higher in the progression than Moore yet he gets .189 targets per route than Moore. Meanwhile Moore gets .192 targets per route despite being further down the progression due to his relative inexperience. Why should a 4th option be getting more targets per route run than the 2nd?

My point is that JJSS scores relatively 'higher' in yards per target than he does in yards per route run because his routes don't yield targets as often as they should for the top WR on a team. And it's because JJSS simply doesn't get much separation.

The top WR for the top scoring offense in football, a team with a 5,000 yard passer, has 95 targets on the season. And less than 900 yards receiving. That's just not a terribly efficient player and not someone that any team 'can't afford to lose'.

That's pretty damn fungible.

By 2 yards - he averages ~11 yards per catch. Also he missed almost an entire game with a concussion. I know numbers don't always tell the whole story but I think with Skyy they are very telling. For a second round draft pic he really isn't living up to expectations. I have to go back to comparing playing time between Watson and him - he just isn't getting on the field and Watson has been less than stellar. That is very telling and something that the other numbers don't bear out.

[philfree]

[QUOTEWe're using a projected salary cap of $225 million in 2023 and $256 million in 2024, as seen on OverTheCap.com. While the 2023 cap may be higher due to the influx of revenue from new TV deals in addition to sports gambling revenues, ][/QUOTE]

So what's it going to be in 4 years? Extend Mahomes and lower his hit and improve the team. Trade up in the draft using future capital if we must and try and do what we did in the first round last year with McDuffy and Karlaftis except make it an OT and another DE. Keep finding gems at CB, safety and interior OL. But build the team.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

By 2 yards - he averages ~11 yards per catch. Also he missed almost an entire game with a concussion. I know numbers don't always tell the whole story but I think with Skyy they are very telling. For a second round draft pic he really isn't living up to expectations. I have to go back to comparing playing time between Watson and him - he just isn't getting on the field and Watson has been less than stellar. That is something that the other numbers don't bear out.

Oh 100%.

I mean I'm the 'lead hater' of Skyy Moore round these parts. Maybe Detox. But I'm on the Mount Rushmore. I'm incredibly disappointed in Moore.

But that kinda makes my point for me - he's still not been that much less efficient than JJSS has been. And ultimately his strengths seem to line up best with the possession role we've asked of JJSS.

So while it's not the greatest place to find yourself...it's not the worst gamble imaginable. And I think the upside of it is higher than giving JJSS a Christian Kirk sort of deal. And ultimately I think he'll cost more than that anyway.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

We've gotta add 20 new faces to this roster BEFORE you cut Frank Clark.

Brotha, that cap space is gonna disappear much faster than you realize. That 33 guys we have signed doesn't include a LT or a RT. It doesn't include DT2 or DT3. Or DE2.

We're gonna have to spread a lot around and it's gonna get thin. That's why it's really important to make sure it's allocated wisely. I don't think paying JJSS like a #1 WR does that.

Well I don't think we are gonna pay him like a #1. Maybe a little more money and a 3-4 year deal but no where close to Adams/Hill money. I don't think OBJ is going anywhere. Wylie is gone and I think Niang is the presumptive starter again next year and we take a RT in the draft as insurance. ROJO is gone - CEH and Pacheco will split carries with McKinnon if we can get him on another short term deal otherwise another draft pick or UDFA.

I'm not a cap guru but it looks to me that we have 33 players under contract in 2023 with ~18M in cap space. Add in the ~20M in cap space saved by releasing Clark and we are up to ~40M.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

Well I don't think we are gonna pay him like a #1. Maybe a little more money and a 3-4 year deal but no where close to Adams/Hill money. I don't think OBJ is going anywhere. Wylie is gone and I think Niang is the presumptive starter again next year and we take a RT in the draft as insurance. ROJO is gone - CEH and Pacheco will split carries with McKinnon if we can get him on another short term deal otherwise another draft pick or UDFA.

I'm not a cap guru but it looks to me that we have 33 players under contract in 2023 with ~18M in cap space. Add in the ~20M in cap space saved by releasing Clark and we are up to ~40M.

Now take away half of that if you're retaining OBJ.

You've got about 12-14 guys to sign post-draft and $20 million to do it with....

Ultimately I think the Chiefs can and likely will get that number nearer to $55-60 million before OBJ, but even if your post OBJ reality has $35-40 million in room, it's gonna start getting gobbled up quickly if you're looking to make any improvements on the DL and/or simply field a roster after your 7 draft picks leave 12-14 free agents still to be signed. I mean $3 million/player isn't gonna get you very far, especially if $15 million goes to JJSS and now you're sitting at needing 10-12 guys and you have $20-25 million to do it with.

It's not the clear path many seem to believe it is.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

SO literally the answer is to let your best WR walk and pray someone gets better? Thats not a plan that's stupid. He will get a decent contract but we can afford it - Especially with Frank Clark getting his walking papers. We can't afford to not pay JJSS.

I don't know if we can or not, but I certainly would rather pay Juju, who we KNOW works well here than take a chance on someone else who may or may not.

I'd feel okay going into '23 with Juju, Moore, Toney, maybe bringing back Watson on the cheap, drafting a WR somewhere in the first three rounds and letting Hardman and MVS walk.

Especially if we fix the OT situation (especially RT!) and add a plus pass rusher.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

SO literally the answer is to let your best WR walk and pray someone gets better? Thats not a plan that's stupid. He will get a decent contract but we can afford it - Especially with Frank Clark getting his walking papers. We can't afford to not pay JJSS.

The plan is they're going to have a lot of roster turnover every year. It's not avoidable.

They need to cut costs and one method would be to take guys in like JuJu who come in cheap for one year to cash in big tomorrow.

Patrick is a legend now in receivers eyes. They will take the discount.

JJSS gets you a nice comp pick in 2024 and you pick up Golliday from the trashcan when the Giants cut him.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I don't know if we can or not, but I certainly would rather pay Juju, who we KNOW works well here than take a chance on someone else who may or may not.

I'd feel okay going into '23 with Juju, Moore, Toney, maybe bringing back Watson on the cheap, drafting a WR somewhere in the first three rounds and letting Hardman and MVS walk.

Especially if we fix the OT situation (especially RT!) and add a plus pass rusher.

MVS most likely isn't going anywhere $4m in dead money pre June 1st $2M post. I'd just assume to keep him around for another year - especially if we aren't retaining JJSS

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

MVS most likely isn't going anywhere $4m in dead money pre June 1st $2M post. I'd just assume to keep him around for another year - especially if we aren't retaining JJSS

He's $11m.

If you cut him, you might be able to get enough together to keep Juju.

I mean, maybe. Who knows?

But everyone dreaming of going shopping for a shiny new WR1 is ****ing delusional.

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Not necessarily arguing, but that's pretty much the exact formula GB has followed since AR became the starter. Veach and Andy might seriously consider an alternate strategy other than "we'll just have Mahomes make everyone better and bear the vast majority of the load for the team's total success for the next 15 years."

IF there's a value FA WR out there at some point, he should be considered very seriously. Especially since w can't realistically expect Kelce to keep performing at his current level for that many more years. Like maybe 2? 3 on the outside?

Yeah I think about GB a lot when I think about what the risks are for us the next decade. I'm all for value and there does come a point where the wrsare so bad even Patrick can't make due.

[philfree]

What will the NFL salary cap be in 2025?
NFL and NFLPA Look Forward to the Future Salary Cap
Year Locked Cap Unlocked Cap
2024 $249,200,000 $268,200,000
2025 $272,200,000 $288,200,000
2026 $298,200,000 $308,200,000
2027 $328,200,000 $328,200,000

I think Veach should have no problem extending Mahomes and signing some good players so we don't have to wait to compete for SBs somewhere in the future. I mean after all we won two 50 years apart and Mahomes and Kelce will both be here forever.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

The plan is they're going to have a lot of roster turnover every year. It's not avoidable.

They need to cut costs and one method would be to take guys in like JuJu who come in cheap for one year to cash in big tomorrow.

Patrick is a legend now in receivers eyes. They will take the discount.

JJSS gets you a nice comp pick in 2024 and you pick up Golliday from the trashcan when the Giants cut him.

I think this may be right. I kinda want my to have my cake and eat it - an elite WR for a few years. But that looks unlikely without a significant cost or hitting in the draft. The latter seems most likely to me.

I might be alone in thinking that making Mahomes turn average into good/special isn't actually a great long term strategy. But what's the choice here? What we REALLY can't do is overpay for mediocre talent. If they're a world beater, cool, drop some money and keep a position elite. That ain't Juju. If he's smart he takes a slight discount now for a couple of years and cashes in after putting up numbers. I don't think he's going to do that.

[Danguardace]

I'd rather keep Hardman, think he'll be Cheaper and along with Moore and Toney gives us a poor man's Legion of Zoom which is better suited to what Pat and Andy want to do.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I think this may be right. I kinda want my to have my cake and eat it - an elite WR for a few years. But that looks unlikely without a significant cost or hitting in the draft. The latter seems most likely to me.

I might be alone in thinking that making Mahomes turn average into good/special isn't actually a great long term strategy. But what's the choice here? What we REALLY can't do is overpay for mediocre talent. If they're a world beater, cool, drop some money and keep a position elite. That ain't Juju. If he's smart he takes a slight discount now for a couple of years and cashes in after putting up numbers. I don't think he's going to do that.

Well, whether we pay Juju or not, let's be clear. He's not 'average'. Average was Drob and Pringle.

The team went for a better group overall as a strategy, and it worked, by any statistical analysis.

Juju has put up very good numbers.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Well, whether we pay Juju or not, let's be clear. He's not 'average'. Average was Drob and Pringle.

The team went for a better group overall as a strategy, and it worked, by any statistical analysis.

Juju has put up very good numbers.

If it wasn't for missing time, he would have had a 1000-yard season. I'm leary of giving him a long term contract because of the concussion/s though.