Discount Kiper 2023 Mock @ Q3 of Season

[kccrow]

Chiefs Offseason

Two things are clear:
1) The offensive tackles are abysmal and it's time to change the guard
2) The defensive line is horrendous and it's time for a complete overhaul

With that...

Release Frank Clark ($19.6m savings)
Yeah, Frank, you're garbage.

Franchise Tag Orlando Brown Jr and trade to New York Jets for a 2023 2nd-round pick.
Orlando has little use to the Chiefs in my opinion and you're certainly not giving him top-of-the-position money. He's probably worth tagging and just trading for what you can get, and I can foresee that being a reasonable pick. The Jets feature a bit more of a ground game than KC and need an LT so it could be a good fit there. If you don't get a trade partner, cut bait on the tag and just move on.

Internal Signings:
DT Chris Jones to a 3-yr, $80.5m extension that includes a $24.0m signing bonus, $41.0m guaranteed at signing, and salary guarantees the last two years that trigger on the 5th day of the league year that could fully guarantee the contract, a conversion of 16.0m of 2023 salary to additional signing bonus with a full guarantee of the remaining 3.5m (cap hits of 21.0, 27.5, 28.5, and 30.5)
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster to 3-yr, $60.0m deal that includes a $21.0m signing bonus and $38.5m guaranteed at signing (cap hits of 14.0, 20.0, 26.0)
P Tommy Townsend to 4-yr $12.0m deal that includes a $2.0m signing bonus and $3.5m guaranteed at signing. (cap hits of 2.0, 2.5, 3.5, 4.0)
OG Nick Allegretti to 1-yr, 1.1m deal
DT Khalen Saunders to 1-yr, 1.1m deal
DB Deon Bush to 1-yr, 1.1m deal
FB Michael Burton to 1-yr, 1.2m deal
WR Justin Watson to VSB 1-yr, 1.3m deal
LB Darrius Harris ERFA tag 1-yr $870k
TE Jody Fortson ERFA tag 1-yr $870k
QB Shane Buechele ERFA tag 1-yr $870k
OT Prince Tega-Wanogho ERFA tag 1-yr $870k

Free Agent Additions:
OT Andre Dillard (PHI) to 2-yr $10.0m deal that includes a 3.0m signing bonus and annual performance escalators of up to 3.0m (cap hits of 4.0, 6.0)
Dillard performed okay when he did get his shot but Mailata ended up being the better player. Dillard still holds a lot of value as a capable swing tackle and he should get a shot to start somewhere, which will likely drive his value up a bit. I look to bring him in to hedge bets against letting OBj go here so the Chiefs wouldn't be walking into the draft with an absolute need.
DE Charles Omenihu (SF) to 2-yr $8.0m deal that includes a 1.0m signing bonus and guaranteed base salary in 2023 (cap hits of 3.5, 4.5)
Omenihu has flashed some ability and is a solid rotational piece. I look to pry him away from San Francisco for the same role.
DE Dawuane Smoot (JAX) to 2-yr $15.0m deal that includes a 6.0m signing bonus and guaranteed base salary in 2023 (cap hits of 6.0, 9.0)
Smoot is unheralded but he's a very solid player that can get you 7-8 sacks and be a plus player against the run. In a class that lacks superstar talent, just loading up might be the way to go.
NT Greg Gaines (LAR) to a 2-yr $12.0m deal that includes a 3.0m signing bonus (cap hits of 5.0, 7.0)
Gaines is one of the better nose tackles in the NFL but he doesn't get much recognition. The Rams would be wise to re-sign him but I have my doubts they will. A good player to pry away.
RB D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) to a 1-yr $1.1m deal
Johnson has done some damage when given a shot but he's been buried behind two very good RBs in Cleveland. I have KC snagging a good rotational back on the cheap once again.

Chiefs Let Walk:
OT Andrew Wylie, FS Juan Thornhill, DE Carlos Dunlap, DT Derrick Nnadi, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Blake Bell, RB Ronald Jones II, OT Geron Christian, DT Taylor Stallworth, RB Jerick McKinnon, DT Tershawn Wharton, DB Chris Lammons, QB Chad Henne

2023 Draft

1. OT Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (6'5" 320)
I'm giving Bergeron the chance to take the LT position and never look back, but if that fails I have Dillard in the fold and I move Bergeron to RT where he should flourish.
2. (f/NYJ) DT Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin (6'4" 317)
Benton is one of my favorites already in this draft class. He gets a great push up the middle and commands extra attention, which the Chiefs need desperately next to Jones.
2. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (6'3" 255)
I really like Felix and think he could end up higher than this at the end of the day, but for now, I have him down here at the bottom of round 2. He's looking like a great situational rusher that will eventually give you a lot more.
3. DT DeWayne Carter, Duke (6'3" 300)
Carter is a stud, honestly, and gets zero recognition. I'd love to see him be an under-the-radar get for the Chiefs as a 3-tech rotational player and passing down specialist next to Jones.
4. WR Josh Vann, South Carolina (5'11" 190)
I'd have Vann a lot higher than this if not for his knee injury this year that ended his season early. Vann is an outside receiver that makes a ton of plays and could come cheap given he likely won't work out.
4. (f/MIA) TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati (6'5" 255)
I love Whyle as a future guy as Kelce continues to age. They come from the same program with similar pedigrees and play styles.
5. CB Rejzohn Wright, Oregon State (6'2" 200)
Wright has continued to develop into a better and better corner. The more he learns to be disciplined and keep from being too physical and drawing flags, the better he gets. He's a definite Spags type on the outside.
6. QB Aidan O'Connell, Purdue (6'3" 210)
I think O'Connell doesn't get enough praise in the circles but he's a pretty solid QB with a fairly solid resume. He's the type of guy I could see Reid working his magic on and flipping, plus this kid is smart which Andy definitely values.
7. (f/ATL) OG Nick Broeker, Ole Miss (6'5" 315)
Staying outside is probably not in the cards as he lunges too much and is a little too susceptible to giving away the inside, but he's mobile and a good player. He reminds me a lot of Royce Newmann who the Packers took in the 4th.
7. DB Avery Young, Rutgers (6'0" 205)
Avery is a guy I think you can work in a role very similar to Sneed, which is much the reason I see him being on the radar. He's been good inside/outside and he's a good tackler.
7. (Comp) RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 199)
I look to replace McKinnon with another speedy back that can catch it out of the backfield. This is a reaaaaally good RB class so some gems could slip through.
7. (Comp) DT Jerrod Clark, Coastal Carolina (6'4" 340)
I might have Clark way too low as he's a beast at Coastal. This is another guy that can force his way into the backfield on sheer size and strength.
7. (Comp) DE Jamal Hines, Toledo (6'3" 260)
Hines is a guy that was relatively productive that I'm just throwing a dart at. Way too many 7th rounders...


QB: P. Mahomes II, S. Buechele, A. O'Connell
RB: I. Pacheco, C. Edwards-Helaire, D. Johnson, X. Valladay
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, J. Fortson, J. Whyle
WR: J. Smith-Schuster, M. Valdes-Scantling, K. Toney, S. Moore, J. Watson, J. Vann
OT: A. Dillard, M. Bergeron, L. Niang, P. Tega-Wanogho
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, N. Allegretti, D. Kinnard, N. Broeker

ED: G. Karlaftis, D. Smoot, C. Omenihu, F. Anudike-Uzomah, M. Danna, M. Herring, J. Hines, J. Kaindoh
DT: C. Jones, G. Gaines, K. Benton, D. Carter, K. Saunders, J. Clark
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, L. Chenal, D. Harris, J. Cochrane
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, L. Sneed, J. Watson, N. Johnson, R. Wright
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, D. Bush, A. Young

[Couch-Potato]

Love it when people include the highlight reals in these draft threads!!!

[Couch-Potato]

I was talking with a friend last night, and I'm really torn between OL or DL in the first round. I wonder how much of OBJ and Wylie's struggles, I believe I heard a stat where they were both top 5 in pressures allowed, are due to Mahomes play style. Pat NEVER throws the ball away, compare that to when Alex Smith was our QB and passing the ball out of bounds was seemingly our most common play. Of course I want to protect Pat, a top tier OT would be an amazing addition, but I hate that we've never been able to get Chris Jones ANY real help along the DL. Jones is the #2 most double teamed defensive player in the league, holy hell, get him a giant NT that demands doubles next to him and a speed edge rusher and free him up to reek havoc.

[Toad]

Good plan Crow.
I believe you’ve nailed the “2 things are clear” aspect of the plan with OT’s and DL being priority. Heavy emphasis this off season MUST be on OT, DE and DT.

As alternative solutions:
For DE, I like Meck’s plan targeting Ngakoue and some another vet (he said JJ Watt) to spell and mentor Karlaftis.

For LT, I hope the team will try to tag and trade OBJ. I agree with you that if they don’t get a trade partner, they should rescind the tag and move on. Dillard would be a good stop gap for the high draft pick I hope they make.

[Chief Roundup]

Discount Kiper...pish posh.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I was talking with a friend last night, and I'm really torn between OL or DL in the first round. I wonder how much of OBJ and Wylie's struggles, I believe I heard a stat where they were both top 5 in pressures allowed, are due to Mahomes play style. Pat NEVER throws the ball away, compare that to when Alex Smith was our QB and passing the ball out of bounds was seemingly our most common play. Of course I want to protect Pat, a top tier OT would be an amazing addition, but I hate that we've never been able to get Chris Jones ANY real help along the DL. Jones is the #2 most double teamed defensive player in the league, holy hell, get him a giant NT that demands doubles next to him and a speed edge rusher and free him up to reek havoc.

So there are now almost 5 years of tape on Mahomes and in 2022 he is definitely getting rid of the ball sooner than he did in 2018. And he is certainly under more duress than he was in 18 or 19. But Fisher and Schwartz were better than OBJ and Wylie. I'll listen to an argument that teams now know how/how not to rush him, but the reality is Fisher and Schwartz were a lot better.

I don't really know what that means in terms of the draft. I don't think OBJ is worth the top of the market, but he is worth some money. If he'll sign for less, I think you try to work it out.

Same for Wylie. I think if you can keep him cheap, you keep him cheap and do a pick to try to upgrade. Maybe Kinnard can come around with a year being around professionals.

I'd like to do better at both places but GODDAMN that's going to cost some resources, and I dunno if the return is there compared to a spot on the DL or WR or even a higher end TE.

Bottom line is I don't have any great ideas here, but Mahomes is "creating pressure on himself" less than he used to and the OL is performing worse than it used to.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So there are now almost 5 years of tape on Mahomes and in 2022 he is definitely getting rid of the ball sooner than he did in 2018. And he is certainly under more duress than he was in 18 or 19. But Fisher and Schwartz were better than OBJ and Wylie. I'll listen to an argument that teams now know how/how not to rush him, but the reality is Fisher and Schwartz were a lot better.

I don't really know what that means in terms of the draft. I don't think OBJ is worth the top of the market, but he is worth some money. If he'll sign for less, I think you try to work it out.

Same for Wylie. I think if you can keep him cheap, you keep him cheap and do a pick to try to upgrade. Maybe Kinnard can come around with a year being around professionals.

I'd like to do better at both places but GODDAMN that's going to cost some resources, and I dunno if the return is there compared to a spot on the DL or WR or even a higher end TE.

Bottom line is I don't have any great ideas here, but Mahomes is "creating pressure on himself" less than he used to and the OL is performing worse than it used to.

You're always big on production per unit salary cap. If I'm looking at the offensive line, I also don't want that product to be negative plays. OBJj produces far more negative plays per unit salary cap than anyone at his position. Wylie produces what I'd call expected (far too many negative plays but the salary cap is also bottom of the barrel)

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Love it when people include the highlight reals in these draft threads!!!

Sean Tucker and Jonathan Mingo look fantastic in this tape!

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Sean Tucker and Jonathan Mingo look fantastic in this tape!

Sean Tucker is fantastic. I can't fathom he makes it outside the top 45. He's a guy that would seriously make you think twice if he's there at the bottom of the 2nd. I'm big on no RB before the 3rd but man if he isn't tailor-made for this offense similar to a young Shady.

Had Mingo in 3 in my Chris Jones trade mock. He's a solid player that I'm definitely getting higher on. Might boost him to a 2nd round guy. He seems like a DK Metcalf situation to me. He's big and he's fast and he didn't produce nearly as much as he probably should have but he just might bust out in the NFL.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Sean Tucker is fantastic. I can't fathom he makes it outside the top 45. He's a guy that would seriously make you think twice if he's there at the bottom of the 2nd. I'm big on no RB before the 3rd but man if he isn't tailor-made for this offense similar to a young Shady.

Had Mingo in 3 in my Chris Jones trade mock. He's a solid player that I'm definitely getting higher on. Might boost him to a 2nd round guy. He seems like a DK Metcalf situation to me. He's big and he's fast and he didn't produce nearly as much as he probably should have but he just might bust out in the NFL.

Tucker reminds me a lot of Travis Etienne.

Somewhere, there's a universe where Etienne came out of the draft a year early like expected and was the Chiefs' pick at 32 and we're all happy about it.

[Urc Burry]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Tucker reminds me a lot of Travis Etienne.

Somewhere, there's a universe where Etienne came out of the draft a year early like expected and was the Chiefs' pick at 32 and we're all happy about it.

As someone who watched a lot of Etienne this year because of fantasy…. Waita ruin my day by putting that scenario in my head haha.

Tucker does look electric, but i don’t know a whole lot about him. How does he hold up in pass pro? Because it seems to me like Reid values that just as much as the receiving element. McKinnon is seriously elite in it. Not even for just his size. Like it is mind blowing to watch. And that’s going to be hard to replace

Also just watched a Mingo highlight.. if you watched it on mute you might think you’re watching AJ Brown

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Urc Burry

As someone who watched a lot of Etienne this year because of fantasy…. Waita ruin my day by putting that scenario in my head haha.

Tucker does look electric, but i don’t know a whole lot about him. How does he hold up in pass pro? Because it seems to me like Reid values that just as much as the receiving element. McKinnon is seriously elite in it. Not even for just his size. Like it is mind blowing to watch. And that’s going to be hard to replace

Also just watched a Mingo highlight.. if you watched it on mute you might think you’re watching AJ Brown

Re: Mingo… or if he doesn’t have enough speed to stack guys in re NFL and get deep, he’s awful JJSS like.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Sean Tucker is fantastic. I can't fathom he makes it outside the top 45. He's a guy that would seriously make you think twice if he's there at the bottom of the 2nd. I'm big on no RB before the 3rd but man if he isn't tailor-made for this offense similar to a young Shady.

Had Mingo in 3 in my Chris Jones trade mock. He's a solid player that I'm definitely getting higher on. Might boost him to a 2nd round guy. He seems like a DK Metcalf situation to me. He's big and he's fast and he didn't produce nearly as much as he probably should have but he just might bust out in the NFL.

Mingo's production isn't crazy. I assumed he was just a novelty player, big and tall, but he makes some really incredible catches and has great hands.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Sean Tucker is fantastic. I can't fathom he makes it outside the top 45. He's a guy that would seriously make you think twice if he's there at the bottom of the 2nd. I'm big on no RB before the 3rd but man if he isn't tailor-made for this offense similar to a young Shady.

Had Mingo in 3 in my Chris Jones trade mock. He's a solid player that I'm definitely getting higher on. Might boost him to a 2nd round guy. He seems like a DK Metcalf situation to me. He's big and he's fast and he didn't produce nearly as much as he probably should have but he just might bust out in the NFL.

NFL Draft Buzz has Tucker as their #9 RB, I've seen him mocked to our Chiefs in the 4th but I agree he looks very solid. If we were in need of a replacement, by chance, for McKinnon then I'd definitely look for him in the draft but would prefer the 4th round or later if he falls.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

NFL Draft Buzz has Tucker as their #9 RB, I've seen him mocked to our Chiefs in the 4th but I agree he looks very solid. If we were in need of a replacement, by chance, for McKinnon then I'd definitely look for him in the draft but would prefer the 4th round or later if he falls.

9th? That's interesting.

I think draftek does as well but their rankings are always pretty shit. They are a nice resource for prospect names though.

The worst I see him is 5th. Robinson, Gibbs, Achane, and Brown are the only guys I could see ahead of him. I'd take him over Achane though. Robinson is a horse. Gibbs is Alvin Kamara 2.0. Brown and Tucker a really similar but I think Brown is a bit more shifty.

[Stryker]

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