Nate Taylor: Chiefs expected to franchise OBJ again [not happening]

[The Franchise]

Brown is technically the Chiefs’ top free agent, though for the second consecutive year, he might never reach the open market. Similar to last year, the Chiefs are expected to place the franchise tag on Brown, which will prevent him from becoming an unrestricted free agent. Such a move will allow both parties more time to negotiate a lucrative contract extension. If the parties cannot agree to a deal by the middle of July, Brown would once again be restricted to a one-year salary of $18.4 million, according to Over The Cap.

https://theathletic.com/4161606/2023...3&redirected=1

The Athletic's Nate Taylor writes the Chiefs are "expected" to place the franchise tag on LT Orlando Brown again.

Brown played on the tag last year, briefly threatening to not report to camp before showing up on time. Since coming over for the Ravens in a trade, Brown has been stellar if not exceptional, and would probably profile as one of the five best free agents on the market if he got there. Taylor also writes that Brown turned down a six-year, $139 million deal with a $30.25 million signing bonus last offseason.

Not really new news...but he won't be hitting the open market at least.

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

In a surprise twist, the Chiefs will not be franchise tagging left tackle Orlando Brown, per source. He’s set to be a free agent March 13. The player has been notified.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) March 6, 2023

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

**** that noise.

Those a a ton of picks, and LT would probably want a new contract.

Think Tunsil is a FA next year so yeah it would be needed.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I don't hate any of the options. That's the nice thing about being "over" all of this stuff.

Whatever they do, I'm fine with it.

What's your take, if any, on that Darnell Wright (sp?) guy? Glanced at two mocks last night, and it looks like he probably will be there at 31.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by Dunerdr

I'd be fine with this. I'd be fine trying Dillard out on the right side.

It’s clearly better than paying OBJ a bajillion dollars to whiff on speed rushers.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

What's your take, if any, on that Darnell Wright (sp?) guy? Glanced at two mocks last night, and it looks like he probably will be there at 31.

I honestly don't think the Chiefs go into the season with a rookie starting at LT. That's really my only thought about it at this point. After the last few seasons, I've given up trying to scout college players. It never works out the way we expect.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Would you anchor your cap down for a player you know is intent on signing a deal, especially when his 1st year cap hit is HALF of what the tag would pay?

Again, you're just assuming that they have no chance to reach a deal. That's all it is - an assumption. Just like the assumption the Chiefs don't have the money to pay him. They clearly do, if that's what they want.

Just going by legit reports. They had 2 chances to get a deal done. Last year and yesterday. The guy was rumored to want big money and rightfully won’t come down off that price.

It’s over. I’d be shocked if he’s back here.

The #Chiefs still have a week to get a long term deal done with Orlando Brown Jr. @jamespalmerTV joined #TheDrive and gave his percentage chance the two sides get a deal done. pic.twitter.com/AGPyPfe34o

— 610SportsKC (@610SportsKC) March 6, 2023

[milkshock]

Wondering if the lack of trade partners - if that indeed is one of the reasons he wasnt tagged - is down to opposing teams not wanting to 'help' the world champions.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

If he makes it to FA, then that team is still going to have the chance to offer him what he wants but he'll also have other teams that can enter the bidding and drive up his price.

It's what the Giants appear to be doing with Barkley.

They simply don't want to give him the leverage of that massive year 1 payday in negotiations. So rather than do so, they've told him he can go test his value on the market and come back if he wants to discuss a new deal.

The Chiefs know that the moment Brown gets tagged, he's starting the bidding at $20 million in year 1 and it really does put him in line for a Tunsil caliber contract.

Without the ability to leverage that 1st year, he's going to have to get a team like the Bears to engage. And if he doesn't, he's going to get substantially less than he's asking for.

It's not a bluff, really. It's just Veach calling no joy. He has a number he's willing to pay and Brown, with that $20 million tag as leverage, isn't willing to accept that overall number. So Veach isn't going to offer him that leverage and he's going to see if the market does it for him. Especially since all another year on the tag will do is set up him for some $24 million tag figure next year and that's pretty obviously not palatable.

But it's also probably what his agent is using. He probably wants $45 million in guarantees over the first 2 seasons (so figure on a $25 million signing bonus and guaranteed salaries of say $8 and $12 million in years 1 and 2 with substantial salary increases to say $18, $22 and $25 million thereafter) because the tag is what he's going to base his calculations on.

That's a 5 year, $110 million deal with cap hits at $13, 17 and $23 million and $10 million on dead money to follow. If he gets cut/restructured after 3 years, it's $63 million over 3 seasons and $21 million/season.

I gotta figure that's about the sort of thing he's looking for with probably some bullshit $30 million 6th year to get his contract to $140 million overall, take him just past Williams and his 6/$138 million and 're-set the market'. It's $64 million in practical guarantees (surpassing Williams $55 million) and it's $45 million guaranteed at signing (surpassing Williams $40 million guaranteed at signing). It is, by any reasonable definition, re-setting the market for OTs.

And Veach simply doesn't want to swim in those seas.

[ChiefBlueCFC]

Originally Posted by Cave Johnson

**** that noise.

Those a a ton of picks, and LT would probably want a new contract.

‘23 appears to be the final year of Tunsils contract, so that haul is way too expensive. Plus, Tunsil being 29, doesn’t flow with how Veach and Chiefs have operated in the past.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by milkshock

Wondering if the lack of trade partners - if that indeed is one of the reasons he wasnt tagged - is down to opposing teams not wanting to 'help' the world champions.

I really don’t think that 31 other teams give a shit about us if they’re trying to make their team better. Maybe you could say that the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers wouldn’t trade with us but if the Bengals need a LT and love Brown…why wouldn’t they just go get him?

It’s more likely that Brown refused to sign the tag because he knows he’s going to get offers on the market and he’ll get to choose his new team.

[Skyy God]

I don’t trust OBJ to maintain his conditioning after being paid.

Plus his agent made some shitty comments last year about MVPat getting hurt if his client held out.

On to plan B.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Again, the shortness of the talks really lead to two possibilities. Either they're so far apart it's never going to happen or they're close enough that using the tag wasn't necessary.

Of course the first option is more probable. But people are acting like the 2nd option doesn't even exist.

If you're close, you tag him then finish the deal so you have zero chance of something last minute popping in and you losing him.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's what the Giants appear to be doing with Barkley.

They simply don't want to give him the leverage of that massive year 1 payday in negotiations. So rather than do so, they've told him he can go test his value on the market and come back if he wants to discuss a new deal.

The Chiefs know that the moment Brown gets tagged, he's starting the bidding at $20 million in year 1 and it really does put him in line for a Tunsil caliber contract.

Without the ability to leverage that 1st year, he's going to have to get a team like the Bears to engage. And if he doesn't, he's going to get substantially less than he's asking for.

It's not a bluff, really. It's just Veach calling no joy. He has a number he's willing to pay and Brown, with that $20 million tag as leverage, isn't willing to accept that overall number. So Veach isn't going to offer him that leverage and he's going to see if the market does it for him. Especially since all another year on the tag will do is set up him for some $24 million tag figure next year and that's pretty obviously not palatable.

But it's also probably what his agent is using. He probably wants $45 million in guarantees over the first 2 seasons (so figure on a $25 million signing bonus and guaranteed salaries of say $8 and $12 million in years 1 and 2 with substantial salary increases to say $18, $22 and $25 million thereafter) because the tag is what he's going to base his calculations on.

That's a 5 year, $110 million deal with cap hits at $13, 17 and $23 million and $10 million on dead money to follow. If he gets cut/restructured after 3 years, it's $63 million over 3 seasons and $21 million/season.

I gotta figure that's about the sort of thing he's looking for with probably some bullshit $30 million 6th year to get his contract to $140 million overall, take him just past Williams and his 6/$138 million and 're-set the market'. It's $64 million in practical guarantees (surpassing Williams $55 million) and it's $45 million guaranteed at signing (surpassing Williams $40 million guaranteed at signing). It is, by any reasonable definition, re-setting the market for OTs.

And Veach simply doesn't want to swim in those seas.

Gotta give Veach credit. He’s evolved from the days of the Watkins and Hitchens contract for the most part.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

If you're close, you tag him then finish the deal so you have zero chance of something last minute popping in and you losing him.

Not if you have plans to lock up guys like Jones and Sneed right away. You need that $20M to play in the first wave of free agency, in order to keep your guys.

In fact, that's exactly what the Chiefs said about not tagging him.

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Gotta give Veach credit. He’s evolved from the days of the Watkins and Hitchens contract for the most part.

Lol no shit. Dude is meticulously ruthless instead of recklessly ruthless now.

[DJ's left nut]

I dunno - is that offer really that bad? He doesn't even get to his tag# as far as the cap hit is concerned until year 3. And by then $23 million is likely to be more akin to $18 million. The cap hits this year and next are right in line/below what he played on this year.

And if he does develop similar to someone like Trent Brown, that 4th year at $27 million (again, presuming significant continued cap increases) may not even be that bad. And if you decide it is, spreading $5 million/yr over a couple years after a June 1 cut isn't the end of the world.

Eh - as I start to do the math on it, I think there's no worse than a coinflip chance he comes back. If the Bears don't engage and Veach can draw even $2 million/yr off those figures, don't you go ahead and pull the trigger?